Concensus picks

So, in my last post, at the very bottom, I noted that I couldn't find anyone who picked the Jaguars against an 0-2 team, which surprised me quite a bit. They were the consensus loser.

I looked at three major websites, NFL.com, cbssports.com and espn.com. It made me curious what the consensus record was over the first two weeks of the year. I learned a few things:

1. Consensus is pretty common. There have been 32 games so far this season. 8, or 25% of them, have had a consensus pick. That's 19 analysts, accuscore (a computer prediction), as well as the majority of ESPN's pick em' group, all picking the same team to win.
2. Furthermore, they do well, but not exceptionally well, in these games, going 6-2 (Two upsets were Cincinnati over Cleveland week one and Tennessee over Baltimore week two). That is better than than their overall record (excluding the consensus games), which is approximately 61%, but still strikes me as surprisingly little improvement considering it's a consensus.

Not sure what to make of this but it means at a minimum no one should worry too much even if literally everyone is picking against you. There's still a 25% chance you'll win, and that doesn't take into account the quality of opponent, which at least for the Jags this week, would have to improve the odds.

It's a pretty small sample size, so I may track it a little more in the next few weeks, but something to chew on. Happy football this weekend

-Q