Myles' always excellent, most entertaining 2013 NFL mock draft

So my good friend Myles has done me the good favor of writing a mock significantly better than anything I could muster. He deserves a greater introduction but I've got a few other things going on...so without further adieu (and just before the real draft starts in case he gets them all right)...

2013 NFL Mock Draft

1. Kansas City Chiefs-Luke Joeckel-OT-Texas A&M

The Chiefs are picking a tackle as evidenced by their Brandon Albert finagling. It comes down to Joeckel or Eric Fisher obviously. Joeckel seems to be a guaranteed B+ with the potential for a little more. Fisher feels like an A+ hiding in a C conference. I like Fisher and honestly think Canton could be in his future. But the Chiefs like Joeckel.

I think. Maybe. The two most common sentiments of a 2013 NFL Draft littered with uncertainty.  

2. Jacksonville Jaguars-Iggy Ansah-DE-BYU

No one knows, and anyone who says otherwise is fooling themselves. Jags GM David Caldwell is keeping a real tight lid on things, and not even a peep has drifted out of their camp. A couple of things to note though. Dion Jordan to the Jags is a little something called groupthink. Gus Bradley said at the Senior Bowl that a team should be built around speed, leading some to irrationally believe the Jags need a defensive end, they like speed, Dion Jordan is fast, it all makes perfect sense. And maybe it does, and maybe (there goes that word again) the Jags will grab the remarkably unproductive Oregon DE, but there is no evidence linking the team to Jordan. People are following unsubstantiated hunches in the blogosphere blindly into a flawed conclusion.

Another thing to note is that Barkevious Mingo isn’t off the table for the Jags. Caldwell has said he likes two players. We have no idea who they are, and the same logic that leads to Jordan could very well lead to Mingo if the Jags prefer him. Mingo is an extraterrestrial athlete who could absolutely transform the Jags chronically anemic pass rush. Tape don’t like. And I like Mingo. And I like the Jags, so here’s hoping.

A word on Eric Fisher. We don’t know much about David Caldwell, but the man is an explicit needs drafter. The Jaguars have many needs. Let’s call it all the needs. However, LT is probably the least needy area on the roster. Eugene Monroe was sneaky good last year and  probably would have made the Pro Bowl if the event reflected football. Now, this needs drafter thing could be posturing by Caldwell. The new Jags GM does not have a huge body of work to stand on alone, but did serve as Director of College Scouting for Falcons from 2008-2012. Let’s take a little peak at their picks to try to detect a needs drafting trend. Obviously, Caldwell wasn’t the GM but certainly had a say in the evaluation and selection.

2008-Matt Ryan-QB-Boston College

I don’t know if you remember the whole Michael Vick situation. I think it is safe to say moving on from the Joey Harrington, Byron Leftwich, Chris Redman poo poo platter they were running out was a need.

2009-Peria Jerry-DT-Ole Miss

Normally, a team drafts a DT to slow the run. Not always but usually that is the thinking. The 2008 Falcons defense ranked 28^th in yard allowed per rushing attempt. That ranking was the worst statistical measure on the entire team. They were also 23^rd in rushing touchdowns allowed and 25^th in rushing yards conceded. Their starting DTs? Grady Jackson and Jonathan Babineaux. Not exactly building block material, especially the 35 year old Jackson. Probs a need pick.

2010-Sean Witherspoon-OLB/DE-Missouri

28 total team sacks in 2009 with no single player amassing more than 6. The worst team statistic that year? Passing yard per attempt followed closely thereafter by total passing yards allowed. Perhaps the team needed to draft a pass rusher to alleviate the issue.

2011-Julio Jones-WR-Alabama

Matt Ryan was his usually efficient self in 2010 tossing 28 and only 9 interceptions. Passing yards were the only weak spot in his arsenal where he ranked 15^th in the NFL. The team had also become overly reliant on Roddy White who accounted for 37% of the club total. In steps ultra dynamic, trade your whole draft for Julio Jones to fix a recognized team need.

This information is obviously not conclusive, and the provided stats are somewhat biased towards an expected conclusion. Empirical scholarship this is not. However, it does give a sense that perhaps Caldwell should be taken for his needs drafting word.

But finally to Ansah. The guy is a freak and everybody wants their Jason Pierre-Paul. Ansah can play in the 4-3 and 3-4, which is necessary in Gus Bradley’s system. The lack of production scares me. It should scare everyone. Ansah could be transformative though and has all the skills to be a very special player. Caldwell also has time to develop a player as expectations are remarkably low in JAX this year.

3. Oakland Raiders-Sharrif Floyd-DT-Florida

Floyd, recipient of the Mike Mayock hype machine badge of honor, seems to be the consensus pick for the Raiders. The guy obviously has physical gifts and lord knows it’s basically impossible to a. figure out anything about this draft b. tell how well a college DT actually plays as a casual observer c. discern how sustainable is Floyd’s leap into the elite last season from fairly a pedestrian level his first two years. It’s also hard to know what the always unpredictable Raiders might do in this especially unpredictable draft. But they have no DTs. Tommy Kelly, Desmond Bryant, and Richard Seymour are gone, and a lot of people feel some kind of way about Floyd. I don’t have a great feeling about Mr. Floyd, but I don’t have a great feeling about the Raiders either.  

4. Philadelphia Eagles-Eric Fisher-OT-Central Michigan

Jason Peters is coming off a torn Achilles and their right tackle situation was sub-par to be generous. Fisher is special, and the Eagles, despite recent struggles, are a solid franchise who won’t flub this up. The Geno Smith pick is too cute anyway. A huge advantage Chip Kelly brings to the table is turning so-so quarterbacks (Darron Thomas, pride of the Calgary Stampede, for example) into game changers via his system. While Geno “I can’t throw in the wind” Smith is remarkably so-so, the 4^th overall pick is not. The Eagles are taking the value and finding their franchise left tackle. 

5. Detroit Lions-Lane Johnson-OT-Oklahoma

Dee Milliner is falling. Somebody write that down for me. The five surgeries article getting leaked this week is the cherry on top of a slowly downward trend hype cycle for Milliner. So while that seemingly would be the pick, it won’t be. The Lane Johnson hype feels very real, and man oh man is the Lions tackle situation desperate. The Jason Fox-Corey Hilliard platoon at the spot opposite of 2012 first rounder Riley Reiff isn’t going to cut the proverbial mustard. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Lions didn’t jump ahead of the Eagles to go after Fisher also.

6. Cleveland Browns-Dion Jordan-DE/OLB-Oregon

I don’t mean to attack anyone publically. He seems like a genuinely nice guy who clearly has made a lot of good friends and is probably a good person. That part of his life is clearly and definitely more important than what I am about to say. But, new Browns GM Mike Lombardi is a special kind of incompetent. The man has spent the last several years slinging the most trite, ill-informed mess around the B.S. Report and NFL Network I have ever heard. He traded Randy Moss to the Patriots pre-2007 for a 3^rd Round pick. Best I can tell, he also picked JaMarcus Russell, you know, just the biggest bust in NFL history. Lombardi once said the first way to evaluate a quarterback is to see how far they can throw the ball. Just hand them the ole pigskin and see how far they can chuck it. Amazing. As soon as I heard that Lombardi had been hired by the Browns, my immediate thought was not again Cleveland, not again. (ed. note, insert obligatory Decision, Boys and Girls Club, talents to South Beach joke here)

So, yeah, if anyone is picking Jordan, who ranked 3^rd on his college team in sacks last year and the star of Andy Staples annual overrated draft prospects column (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/-nfl-draft/news/20130423/2013-nfl-draft-overrated-underrated/?sct=hp_t12_a9&eref=sihp) it’s Lombardi. They’ll be thrilled Jordan fell to them. After all, he does run real fast. A blue chipper, indeed.

 

7. Arizona Cardinals-Star Lotulelei-DT-Utah

You had to think this was the year the Levi Brown era would end. It seems like forever and always he has been the brunt of the Cardinals offensive line is terrible conclusions. Yet another year goes by and the team beat writers are adamant the team is fine with its line situation.

So here lands Lotulelei whose heart condition has been overstated while his talent has not. The Cards’ defense struggled last year against the run despite their bullish beginning to the season. They were 28^th in rushing yards allowed and 22^nd in yards per attempt. Lotulelei is the real deal and could be the final piece in an elite level d in the desert.

8. Buffalo Bills-Tavon Austin-WR-West Virginia

If I had to guess a team to bust a pick this draft other than the hapless Browns, it would be Buffalo. GM Buddy Nix’s recent phone call embarrassment was the most recent in a long line of poor decisions. And man was that a bad decision.

I want to believe they would prioritize replacing Andy Levitre and go with one of the elite offensive guard prospects in the draft. I really don’t want to believe they would pick Doug Marrone’s mediocre-is-too-generous-a-word former QB Ryan Nassib. That is a bridge too far. So, let’s go with Tavon Austin, a shifty little waterbug. There is certainly precedent for Nix plopping an elite athlete in his frigid city and then misusing him (see, Spiller, CJ). The Bills’ GM has also mentioned a desire to draft a receiver and Austin has elevated himself about the rest of the wideout pack.

9. New York Jets-Barkevious Mingo-OLB-LSU

Mingo will not be Darrelle Revis. Other than their proclivity for playing at different places on the field, Mingo is not the greatest player ever at his position. Mingo could be Aldon Smith though. Only a rare handful of defensive players jump off the television screen quite like Barkevious. The only thing keeping these teams apart is Mingo potentially going earlier.

 

10. Tennessee Titans-Jarvis Jones-OLB-Georgia

This team was bad at a lot of things last year. In the 28 statistical categories Pro Football Reference tracks, the Titans ranked 20^th or worse in 21 of them. As a result, they have a lot of holes to fill. Given the duration of the management’s tenure and the subsequent need to win now to save jobs, an immediate impact player is likely. Jones’ health is a concern, but his production is not. The man knows how to rush the passer and fits the Titans’ scheme perfectly. He might be special, and talent like his doesn’t fall often.

 

11. San Diego Chargers-DJ Fluker-OT-Alabama

With the Lord of No Rings A.J. Smith finally departed, the Chargers should engage in rebuilding for the first time in years. Cornerback was an area of need prior to the signing of talented but injury-prone Derrick Cox. Offensive tackle is the consensus need area and though Fluker cannot play on the more valuable left edge, he can be an extremely effective right sided mauler. Great pick on one of the surest things in the entire draft class.

12. Miami Dolphins-Johnathan Cooper-OG-North Carolina

Speaking of management desperate to win now, GM Jeff Ireland is in panic mode and may take the franchise down with him. The Dolphins are drifting towards a special kind of dysfunction. I would place them third in the power rankings of teams most likely to stink up the draft. Cooper has scooted right on past elite prospect Warmack and will probs be the first guard off the board. Guards are super safe picks historically, and I have no reason to believe Cooper won’t be a really effective and even special player for the Dolphins and form a great line with lesser Pouncey and Branden Albert. But I can’t help but wondering if that 40 time hasn’t unnecessarily skewed opinion on him. At the end of the day, I just don’t think he is as good as Warmack, which makes this pick a mistake.

 

13. New York Jets (from Tampa Bay)-Tyler Eifert-TE-Notre Dame

Eifert buzz is building people! Mockdom has him all over the map, but my hunch is this is where he lands. The Jets are not going to get any better unless their offense improves. Mark Sanchez is bad. He is part of the problem but not the only one. His receiver situation last year was somewhere between not great and real, real bad. Eifert fills an area of need with a unique skill set (Kiperism in the house!) and great measureables. Also, this could be the place for a corner, but the stats show Cromartie and Wilson can piece a remarkably respectable pass coverage together. Dealing from a position of strength was an unreported reason why the Jets felt okay dealing Revis. It’s important to note too that Eifert isn’t nearly the player Heofconstantcontractdemands is but may actually add more value to the team from a positional needs standpoint. But probably not. You can only have the best ever so often. 

14. Carolina Panthers-Sheldon Richardson-DT-Missouri

There are few players more locked into one team as much as Richardson with the Panthers. Safety has been a consideration with draftniks, but a game changer on the defensive line is more valuable than at the suddenly scarce safety position. Richardson can really be disruptive and could be an impact player for the Carolina Cams.

Side note: Two years ago in this little endeavor, I predicted Cam Newton as the Panthers pick and that he would be boom or bust. I never guessed he would be boom and bust.

15. New Orleans Saints-Sylvester Williams-DT-North Carolina
16. St. Louis Rams-Kenny Vacarro-S-Texas
17. Pittsburgh Steelers-Dee Milliner-CB-Alabama
18. Dallas Cowboys-Chance Warmack-OG-Alabama
19. New York Giants-DJ Hayden-CB-Houston
20. Chicago Bears-Arthur Brown-ILB-Kansas State
21. Cincinnati Bengals-Eric Reid-S-LSU
22. St. Louis Rams (from Washington)-Justin Hunter-WR-Tennessee
23. Minnesota Vikings-Cordarrelle Patterson-WR-Tennessee
24. Indianapolis Colts-Xavier Rhodes-CB-Florida State
25. Minnesota Vikings (from Seattle)-Kevin Minter-ILB-LSU
26. Green Bay Packers-Tank Carradine-DE-Florida State
27. Houston Texans-Zach Ertz-TE-Stanford
28. Denver Broncos-Bjorn Werner-DE-Florida State
29. New England Patriots-Desmond Trufant-CB-Washington State
30. Atlanta Falcons-Kyle Long-OL-Oregon
31. San Francisco 49ers-Johnathan Cyprien-S-Florida International
32. Baltimore Ravens-Matt Elam-S-Florida

 

A good sign

It's not that I don't believe Mr. Khan when he says the team isn't moving but actions speak louder than words, you know? Well, this was some serious action. No joke. I feel much more confident about the Jaguars future being in Jacksonville. He didn't have to drop that money (which had to be significant).

(Watch it come out tomorrow that the locker room is now portable)

A little perspective...

...Chase Stuart struggles to find examples of when a team used two QBs without dire consequences.

Side note: I've been reading Football Perspective for a while. My first thought was "It's so damn good and smart and well-written, I'm jealous". Chase, clearly works really hard at coming up with valuable and not sensational posts (Whereas I'm lazy). My next thought was to hide it from all my friends so I could seem smarter. That was working for a while till it turns out Myles' was reading the site as well, so I figure better to promote quality and hope he doesn't end up behind ESPN's paywall. Thanks for the great stuff, Chase. And if you haven't checked it out, definitely do, it's smart and written in a very accessible way.

Here's his take of the Jaguars in 2012, btw. It's kind of not really about the Jags but still worth a read.

Too much hardball with MJD?

In today's O-Zone, John Oehser jumped all over Gary from DeBary for referencing the NFL's Top 100 and how it relates to contract negotiations with Maurice Jones-Drew. Here's the Q&A in full:

Gary from DeBary, FL:

No. 12 Player in the entire NFL – voted by his peers, the people who have to play against him every week. I understand and have agreed with the stance Gene Smith and the Jaguars have taken on this issue, but clearly this situation is an exception to the 'rule.’ It is now time for the Jaguars to make some kind of 'peace offering' and get Maurice Jones Drew in for the beginning of training camp. Get the 2012 season started on the right track on all fronts! At the end of the day, that IS what is best for the Jaguars moving forward. Your thoughts on MJD's ranking and how it could or should affect his – and future players’ –status as Jaguars?

John: My thought on Jones-Drew’s ranking is it was well-deserved. He had a magnificent, memorable year. My thought on how it should affect this situation or his status with the Jaguars is . . . are you kidding me? A list? You want them to negotiate based on a list?

While I agree that it would be silly to let anything as silly as an NFL popularity contest influence negotiations (or their existence, I suppose), Gary from DeBary actually slipped a relevant point in there. MJD is a special player, and although you don't want to get in the habit of tearing up contracts with two years left on them, I imagine most fans and GMs wish that they were consistently having to wrestle with the issue of how much to pay their All-Pros. The Jags timed his contract perfectly. There's no doubting that but, as Gene Smith has said over and over and over, no negotiations (ok, so those links are all reporting the same story, but he was pretty emphatic), I think they've overplayed their position. Maybe it is all strategy but I think hiding behind precedent and future ramifications is a little weak. There have literally only been a handful of players in Jags history who both on and off the field, in the locker room and around the league, meant as much as Jones-Drew. If you add some incentives and an extra year to his contract, what player is going to step up and say me next? Certainly no one on the team currently. Future 12th best players in the NFL? If that's what is holding this situation up, it's time to pay the man.

(Image is courtesy of FL Times-Union. Also, for self-plagerism protection, heads up, I submitted a similar question to the O-Zone. I wanted to hear Oesh's thoughts and he might not be one of my 7 readers. He also might not respond.)

More Martellus Bennett please

Martellus was both insightful and funny when talking to Tania Ganguli about Laurent Robinson, who he played with last year in Dallas.

Ignorant Draft Musings

My favorite night in the annual sports calendar just past, and I wanted to share some of my oh so enlightening reactions:

1. J-Boogie!!!!!!!!!!

2. The dominant theme of the 1st Round was smart teams, and yes I'm including the Jags and maybe even the Cowboys in this group, taking advantage of an unusual market inefficiency. The consensus around the league settled so firmly around the concept that the value of this draft was its depth that real value could be found in moving up. When everybody wants to move back, value can be found in moving up. The Jags, Cowboys, and Eagles all sacrificed a relatively meager amount to move up and draft elite players. The Patriots, perpetual kings of moving back, moved up twice. It was a different kind of night.

3. Gene Smith made an outstanding move. Every unknowing blogger and Peter King on the planet thought the Jaguars wanted to move back until about an hour before the draft. Then, all of a sudden, my man Gene only sacrificed a 4th round draft pick to get J-Boogie!!!!!!!!!! Just as a point of reference, I want to list some of the best 4th round picks from the last 3 years:

Roy Helu-RB-Redskins
Sam Acho-LB-Cardinals
Delone Carter-RB-Colts
Cortez Allen-DB-Steelers
Mike Williams-WR-Bucs
Jacoby Ford-WR-Raiders
Aaron Hernandez-TE-Patriots
Geno Atkins-DT-Bengals
O'Brien Schofield-LB-Cardinals
Mike Thomas-WR-Jags
Louis Murphy-WR-Raiders
Austin Collie-WR-Colts
Jacob Tamme-TE-Colts

That's it. 13 quality picks out of a possible 96. Gene Smith sacrificed a 13.5% of finding a quality player for the chance to draft J-Boogie!!!!!!!!!! My man Gene. What a hoodwink.

4. It is safe to say we can stop talking about the Steelers offensive line woes. If greater Pouncey stays healthy and David DeCastro is half the player people think he is, we are looking at an all-time great interior offensive line. Look for a great year from Rashard Mendenhall and some favorable comparisons to the Walter Jones-Steve Hutchinson road-grating excellence that somehow yielded a Shaun Alexander MVP.

5. Teams around the league yearn to get after the quarterback. The Giants won the Super Bowl with an elite pass rush that outlasted the glamorous offenses that dominated the regular season. So, in a cliche-perpetuating movement, the "copycat" league attempted to replicate their success by drafting an enormous amount of pass rushers. 7 seemingly indistinguishable quarterback chasers were selected between picks 15 and 28. One of those players might turn into Clay Matthews of Jason Pierre-Paul, but it is safe to assume there is a Vernon Gholston or two in that bunch. My money would be on Bruce Irvin, Quinton Coples, and Nick Perry.

6. Just to recap, the Rams turned the 2nd pick into:

Michael Brockers-DT-LSU
39th Pick in 2012
45th Pick in 2012
Washington's 1st in 2013
Washington's 1st in 2014

That is an enormous load. The ascendancy of Robert Griffin should be one of the best things ever to happen to the Rams franchise as they have the opportunity to turn his potential into 5 quality starters. As long as the front office does their job, the Rams just created five years worth of championship contention.

7. J-Boogie!!!!!!!!!!

-Myles
(KPPBH's ignorant draft commentator)

Welcome to Jax, J Boogie

(image courtesy of Florida Times Union)

BLACKMON!!!

There are no guarantees and every player can fail but yesterday was the most universally beloved draft pick for the Jags since Fred Taylor in 1998. Gene Smith supporters are happy. Gene Smith doubters seem to be in some state of shock or pleasant surprise. There is, as officially as it gets, buzz about the Jags.

You have to get the player right but the trade was perfectly executed. It's reasonable to assume the Rams would have taken him at sixth, so a move was necessary. They moved up the minimum amount necessary to get him. They gave up as little as could be reasonably expected (4th rounder). It always feels good when your team is doing the same thing as the traditionally smart teams (Eagles and Patriots moving up. Cowboys, although traditionally dumb, gave a reasonable amount to jump up and get Claiborne). Smith noted everyone wanted to move down. He went the other way.

An odd thing has happened to the Jacksonville receivers this off-season. They are good. They are competitive. It's a crowded room. My friend Russell (read his movie reviews here) instantly pointed out that Blackmon and Laurent Robinson are the best Jags duo since Smith and McCardell. I have my worries about Robinson (mostly injury related) but here's the thing, the Jaguars have a legitimately deep WR corp and one of the best WR coaches in history. In one off-season, it has gone from being an obvious weakness to a potential strength. That is odd in the best and most glee inducing way. Quick glance at Jags WR corp:

• Justin Blackmon - The presumptive #1.
• Laurent Robinson - Young, speedster. Caught ten touchdowns last year. Less pressure with addition of Blackmon.
• Mike Thomas - Good, young player who was clearly on the rise before all the WRs stepped back last season.
• Cecil Shorts III - Rough first year but flashed in the preseason.
• Lee Evans - Low risk, high reward veteran, who, at a minimum gives a lesson on how to be a professional, while, if healthy, legitimately pushing younger guys to be at their best. Also, it has been forgotten but he looked very good last preseason before injuries derailed him.
• Chastin West - Jags fans will scoff but he was a player Green Bay was disappointed got away. A full-season will give the Jags a chance to properly evaluate.
• Jarret Dillard - Certainly expendable now but he hasn't ever been properly coached or healthy. He's healthy and there's no coaching excuse now. He's legitimate competition if nothing else
• Taylor Price, Brian Robiskie - Young, former reasonably high draft picks. Once again, competition.

It's hard to look at that list and not think the Jaguars will keep six guys.

A supremely underrated quality of Gene Smith's is his ability to completely remake a position, incredibly quickly. If you don't evaluate well, it's all over anyway, but Jags fans should at least respect he has a clear vision. In recent years, he has, typically in a single off-season, completely overhauled nearly every position (OT, DT, S and LB being the most obvious.)

If he fails, he fails, but I think Jags fan truly fail to realize how many teams are shooting blindly in the dark.

-Q