Concensus picks

So, in my last post, at the very bottom, I noted that I couldn't find anyone who picked the Jaguars against an 0-2 team, which surprised me quite a bit. They were the consensus loser.

I looked at three major websites, NFL.com, cbssports.com and espn.com. It made me curious what the consensus record was over the first two weeks of the year. I learned a few things:

1. Consensus is pretty common. There have been 32 games so far this season. 8, or 25% of them, have had a consensus pick. That's 19 analysts, accuscore (a computer prediction), as well as the majority of ESPN's pick em' group, all picking the same team to win.
2. Furthermore, they do well, but not exceptionally well, in these games, going 6-2 (Two upsets were Cincinnati over Cleveland week one and Tennessee over Baltimore week two). That is better than than their overall record (excluding the consensus games), which is approximately 61%, but still strikes me as surprisingly little improvement considering it's a consensus.

Not sure what to make of this but it means at a minimum no one should worry too much even if literally everyone is picking against you. There's still a 25% chance you'll win, and that doesn't take into account the quality of opponent, which at least for the Jags this week, would have to improve the odds.

It's a pretty small sample size, so I may track it a little more in the next few weeks, but something to chew on. Happy football this weekend

-Q

Blaine Gabbert. Gene Smith. It's all happening

This is it. Or at least the start of it. Blaine Gabbert's ascension to the starting quarterback position quickly shifts the Jaguars from a team that is building, putting players in place, improving, to a team that is to be evaluated on performance, or at a minimum clear signs of improvement. The pieces are in place. For all of us Gene Smith believers (I fully count myself), there will be no where left to hide.

Reaction to Week 1, 2011

The Luke McCown era has begun. (I wanted to go with an exclamation point but just couldn't do it)

Here's a funny thing about rooting for a team that is as transparent, and frankly, as honest as the Jaguars; expectations are well adjusted. You can generally believe Gene Smith when he says this player is playing well, or that he's happy or disappointed with a unit. So when he kept saying the team was alright, and viewing the preseason as largely a success, Jaguars' fans should have believed him, kept the faith, yada, yada. Now, fans being fans, many panicked, and I can't say my expectations for the season weren't adjusted downward with the release of David Garrard. That said, I think this game should have fallen comfortably on the optimistic side of expectations but nothing too astonishing.

The major concerns going into the game were for wide receiver and the offensive line. The message from the team was that the wide receivers were good enough and the offensive line was talented and would be able to run the football. These things were true. Luke McCown was an obvious concern, and although the team has been more hesitant in setting expectations for him, the perception was certainly that he was David Garrard without the ups and downs. Coincidentally (or not), McCown's passer rating of 91.5 was a notch higher than Garrard's 90.8 from last season (To be fair, Garrard's running ability is an asset not captured by this stat).

This was a very fortunate game to start the season off. I don't think the Titans will be very good. More so, they play to the Jaguars strengths. They run the ball well and don't pass particularly well. Matt Hasselbeck isn't the player he once was and I can't think of a good precedent for a player bouncing back from a holdout to carry his team the way Chris Johnson will need to carry this Titans team. Not a bold prediction but I imagine we'll be seeing Jake Locker on Christmas Eve when the teams meet again.

...onto next week...my initial reaction to the David Garrard release was that the team would pull together for this week, play reasonably well, but there would be a let down week 2. Gotta say, I don't think that's going to happen. Just reading the quotes but the team seems to have moved on fairly quickly, and there just a touch of that no-one-believes-in-us-still vibe. On the plus side, I don't think this is going to change the national perception of the Jaguars one bit. That's largely due to 1) Expectations for the Titans were low 2) The score was relatively close and 3) No one saw the game. If you really want the Jags on NFL Tonight, this isn't so hot, but if all you really want the Jags to win, then I think this, combined with the Jets winning in week one, bodes well.

I know this is pretty fluffy so I'll try to bring more substance as the season wears on. Hey, I've been holding out, too

-Q

Great work by Jags beat writers

I sometimes question the value of beat writers but Vito and Tania's knowledge and coverage of this situation have been superb. The national media has repeatedly misjudged the situation, who the decisions makers were and what this says about Blaine Gabbert. They did pick up on the poor timing of the decision but that was largely done by pivoting off of this Vito Stellino piece. I think the tone of that piece was appropriate as well. It was one of disappointment in Gene Smith rather than over-the-top, misdirected finger pointing.

Here's a roundup of the latest coverage:

• Here's a full email from Gene Smith explaining the situation
• Full transcript of an interview Garrard gave. Here's the summary.
• Jaguars' players talk of moving on
• Alfie Crow talks about the inevitability
• Andrew Hofheimer looks back at the warning signs

I'll probably have more at some point, especially on the mindset of the team, but at this point it's probably best to follow the advice of the namesake: Watch and see what happens.


-Q

Jaguars to release Garrard

Wow. I'm surprised. Here's the initial report from Jay Glazer of Fox Sports. Here's PFT.

There's a line at the end of the PFT article that reads "It says a lot that Gabbert couldn’t step up to win the starting job, and the Jaguars still made this move." That is somewhat vague but I think it's a little misguided. To me, this bodes well for the Jaguars opinion of Gabbert. I think it means they'll move to Gabbert sooner rather than later so you might as well with the cheaper bridge. Presumably, they think McCown is approximately the player Garrard is for a fraction of the cost. If Garrard had been on the roster on opening day he would have been guaranteed his eight million dollar salary (due to being a vested veteran).

I hope this doesn't cost Del Rio the team. I'll be interested to read the player's reactions.
-Q

Bill Barnwell doesn't know how to use the internet

That is the only explanation for how someone could write a preview this bad. I'm obviously a week late on this but it's so egregiously uninformed that it demands a short comment. I'm sure he'd chalk this smattering of words imitating an argument up to living in Vegas and not caring about the Jaguars but that's really no excuse for not doing your job.

1. Austen Lane (or as Bill Barnwell prefers Austin Lane) is not the starting defensive end for the Jaguars. Jeremy Mincey is. Mincey had five sacks while starting eight games last year. Which leads to..
2. 4 sacks in 8 games isn't earth shattering but if Kampman had kept that pace up, he'd have finished with 8 sacks, the same number as Julius Peppers. I'm not high on Kampman but Barnwell was stretching to call Kampman a bust. He blew out his other ACL and predicting injuries is...what's the word...impossible. So let's not pretend that was a terrible signing.
3. He is either unfamiliar that the Jaguars practice or intuitively disagrees with Best Available Player drafting. If Gene Smith thinks Gabbert is going to be an elite quarterback, it would be insanely dumb to draft a defensive player for improving an 8-8 team for one year. Quoting Bill Barnwell: "The get-rich-quick way to rebuild is to come up with a franchise quarterback." They're trying, Bill. They're trying.
4. It also might be worth pointing out that they did draft a defensive player last year, Tyson Alualu, who has, without exception, been described as dominant in camp this year. Hell, even Peter King noticed.
5. Will Rackley has won the left guard job. That's not an if. It had already happened when you published this preview. (Maybe this is like those fantasy magazine where you had to go to press in June....No... you say this is still the internet..just not paying attention...ok, got it. /Doing best Bill Simmons)
6. Cecil Shorts won't be good because of his name. No comment.

The irony is, I like Bill Barnwell. I was looking forward to this preview. I generally find him to be insightful and interesting. I'm not sure if this was just life getting in the way (he did move recently), apathy towards the Jaguars, or his normal M.O that I'm only becoming aware of because this is my team. I can handle the poor arguments, like focusing half the preview on the draft of the previous GM, but factual errors (not even counting spelling here) about who is starting are well below what I've come to expect out of him or Grantland. There are arguments to be made that cut much deeper (the offensive line play has been particularly worrisome, which in turn leads fans to worry about Gene Smith's drafting) but you'd have to care about getting the facts right first.

Who knows. Maybe this is the year the year the national media pegs the Jaguars correctly and they bottom out but it won't be because of the reasons Barnwell sites.

-Q

Probably thought you'd go pantsless this season

Welcome back, Everyone (and by everyone I mean the three lovely people who read this blog)

There has been a bit of news since I lasted updated. The Jags have added a bevy of new players. They've been anointed saviors, torn down, and re-anointed in that time. Paul "The Poz" Posluszny, has gone from good solid football player to man who can't cover Fred Jackson. Dawan Landry has gone from major upgrade, hugely underrated safety to out of position. Oddly, the Jaguars spent $100 million on linebackers and yet, Bill Simmons (who I think is on a mission to make me quit listening to him even casually when he talks about football), made the comment offhand that the Jags don't spend money. The Jaguars ability to do things without being noticed, much less analyzed, always surprises me. It's been awhile and it was a quick offseason so a quick rehash of things we've learned about the Jags in this lockout-induced abbreviated training camp/offseason would seem to be in order:

• Blaine Gabbert is a rookie. He has nice hair. He's been with the team a little over a month. He throws the best ball of any Jaguars QB ever. I feel confident saying ever 1) Cause I've seen them all and 2) Mark Brunell is the only other candidate. I can eliminate him cause I was really quite a perceptive scout as a 6th grader. Mark Brunell was a legitimate MVP candidate. He was this crazy combination of strength and mobility. I remember being told Brunell could bench press 500 pounds and totally believing it, repeating it for years, and then realizing one day early  in college it might not be true. Someone might have been exaggerating for effect or joking. I didn't know you could joke about super heroes. In any case, his skill set was different. Gabbert throws a truly beautiful ball, one even a 6th grader would appreciate. Unfortunately, Gabbert isn't close to ready. He's the third QB now. Gene Smith said he wouldn't be ready immediately after the draft. Fans, myself included, ignored/willfully forgot that. 
• David Garrard is still David Garrard. Which means he is maddeningly frustrating. This is the only reasonable explanation why some are calling for Luke McCown.
• The Jaguars were set up reasonably well to handle the lockout. They had a fair amount of continuity, same head coach and QB from a team that was pretty competitive, and yet, the lockout definitely hurt. I'm not sure if it hurt worse than for other teams but it costs them Vince Manuwai. Terrence Knighton came in overweight (although just judging by reactions it was less overweight than last year. Little Victories). Ticket sales have been abysmal. They had to keep Del Rio (not unrelated to ticket sales issue). I don't hate Del Rio but there's no doubt fans wanted him gone.
• Quick hits on the rookies:
• Blaine Gabbert - See above but I feel better post camp than I did in April.
• Will Rackley - Barring injury he'll start for the better part of a decade.
• Cecil Shorts - This is essentially Alualu 2.0, with a significantly smaller spot light. A pick ripped by fans and pundits alike who knew literally nothing about him. Barring injury, he'll establish himself as the best Jags wide receiver by the end of the year. That said, Jags WR reconstruction project (now in year 6!), is only 2/3rds complete. Shorts is the number 2 guy. Mike Thomas is made for the slot. That only leaves an Andre Johnson to find. No problem for GM Gene I'm sure.
• Chris Prosinski - Solid depth, was in the mix for free safety pre-injury. I have some hope for this guy and think he'lll be around for a while but...Hamstring. Ugh.
• Rod Issac - Easily most disappointing pick and probably the most initially disappointing pick of the Gene Smith era (which says something, although Larry Hart has thrown down the gauntlet for most disappointing Gene Smith pick ever). Issac is the first guy I remember hearing was overmatched from day one. He's still around though so we'll see.
• Tyson Alualu is dominant. Last years dominant camp player was Marcedes Lewis, which turned out pretty well. As long as Alualu is on the field, the Jaguars defense will be much improved (I'd say can't get worse but last year was already an improvement from the year before. Worse is out there). Alualu, along with Rashean Mathis coming back to life, should give Jaguars fans legitimate hope (mostly, they've been more interested in Tim Tebow's availability though. I do feel sorry for T squared now.)

This was pretty jumbled but I wanted to breathe a little life back into this here blog. I'm going to try and get a few regular features going. First, the day after the game (normally Monday) I'll give my reaction and some quick thoughts. Second, I'll try to post a preview and a prediction for the the upcoming game. Hopefully, throughout the year, I'll be able to work in some longer less time sensitive pieces.

It's really nice to have football back.
-Q