I touched on this last week but as if to further confirm that the Raiders are an organization that does it the "wrong way". This story came out after the game. A quick summary, when Kyle Boller came into the game Sunday, the Raiders threw a couple of times. Obvious questions arose about why they did that cause, well, Darren McFadden was having his way with the Jaguars (more specifically Sean Considine) and a run seemed like the more prudent thing to do (cause it's, you know, Kyle Boller). Like all play calling, it's great if it works, it was wrong if it doesn't, hindsight bias, etc. When Tom Cable, Raiders head coach, was asked about it, he said “I don’t know. That is not for me to decide right now.” Hue Jackson, meet bus. While that's bad, its not exactly the problem.
Jack Del Rio has probably at some point thrown his offensive or, less likely his defensive coordinator to the dogs (less likely cause Del Rio's domain is defense and he can't ever really skirt the blame for their failure). He, though has control over who his guys are, and while Del Rio has his own coach issues, most notably the revolving door that are his assistants. He's in charge and is ultimately accountable and responsible for Dirk Koetter's performance. For the Raiders, they have a particularly odd management strategy, one that. as far as I know is unique in the NFL to them. The owner highers the head coach, offensive and defensive coordinator. The coordinators have control over their particular units while the head coach is a kind of figure head. Now Cable and Jackson claim to have laughed about this particular incident and who knows maybe they did, but this type of conflict is inevitable when you have one guy who keeps his job based on one metric (wins) and another guy who has a significant amount of control over those outcomes. If they disagree,which they will, things get nasty. This is all speculation although if Jackson leaves after the season, especially if he leaves for a lower profile job, we'll have a clue.
Ultimately, owners have enough trouble bringing in one right person, the head coach. The process of hiring three people while also juggling how personally compatible they are as well as their football philosophies, is an order of magnitude more complicated. The Cowboys did a similar thing a few years ago, hiring Jason Garrett to be offensive coordinator, before they hired Wade Phillips. That combo won zero playoff games.
While I don't think it's true in all aspects of business or life, in football, I think its especially important to have singular points of authority. For players, quarterbacks tend to assume this role. It is part of the reason why teams are so much more adamant in declaring who their starting QB is. They want to make him into a credible leader. For teams generally, a head coach's authority has to be absolute. It is his vision, philosophy and ability to convince others to follow and execute his strategy that is ultimately being evaluated. By taking away his authority to hire his top assistants, the owner undermines the coach. Al Davis and Jerry Jones effectively have neutered coaches. Wayne Weaver, conversely, has clearly delegated responsibility. Presumably, this is why Gene Smith has the "conn" (am I doing that right?) and Del Rio's role is so well defined. He is responsible for getting the most out of the 53 that Gene Smith gives him.
Final thought, it's worth pondering why do Jerry Jones and Al Davis do this? The most likely answer is essentially ego. Think about how much more strongly Jones and Davis are associated on a national level with the Cowboys and Raiders than Weaver is with the Jaguars. Think about who the faces of each of these franchises are. For the 'Boys and Raiders, it's their owners. For the Jags, it's probably MJD (God bless him). If any of these teams won the Super Bowl, the credit would largely go to the person most highly associated with those teams. While Robert Kraft is well respected, the credit for the Patriot's success this decade largely falls to Belichick and Brady. Outside of Daniel Snyder, I doubt anyone dabbles in football decisions as much as Jones and Davis. I also don't think it's a coincidence that they're the two owners who've had the most football success on the field. Paradoxically, this means that as a fan, you are better off having someone like Weaver or Kraft, who essentially are nothing more than fans with lots of money, than a guy who has had moderate on-field success. Go figure.
-Q
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Monday, December 13, 2010
Really Quick thoughts on jags game
Final today so these are my super quick observations.
1) If you switched the head coaches from yesterdays game, I think Oakland wins. Jags fans love to complain about Del Rio but it could be a lot worse.
2) I think the Jags might lose if Rolando McClain, Oakland's first round pick, was there yesterday. He was injured and there seemed to be a huge drop off in talent.
Fortunately, neither of those things matter and the Jags are now 8-5.
-Q
1) If you switched the head coaches from yesterdays game, I think Oakland wins. Jags fans love to complain about Del Rio but it could be a lot worse.
2) I think the Jags might lose if Rolando McClain, Oakland's first round pick, was there yesterday. He was injured and there seemed to be a huge drop off in talent.
Fortunately, neither of those things matter and the Jags are now 8-5.
-Q
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Crazy ol' man comes to town
Two posts, one week. I'm on fire.
I don't really like the Raiders. I'm only a fan of the Jags but there tend to be teams I respect and like to see do well. These are teams I believe do it "the right way." They draft well, develop players, are prudent in free agency, and take bold moves to prune their roster when the time comes. They tend to have strong identities and stick with a coach for a while. The three that immediately jump to mind are the Steelers, Giants and Eagles (If I was a more objective person than I am, I'd throw the Titans in there too but screw them. I hope they give Vince Young 100 bazillion dollars for the next 40 years). They've all won enough to be relevant and respectable but haven't quite reached the point of insufferability (spell check says that's not a word. I completely refudiate that notion spell check.)
On the other side of my NFL morality spectrum (note: not real morality but morality within the reality of the NFL. In walking-around-real life, I frown upon rapists and puppy kickers) are those teams whom I think have a fundamental flaw in how they operate. They may spend recklessly, fire coaches too quickly, or have owners who are overly invested in football decisions. See Redskins, Washington and Cowboys, Dallas. I tend to enjoy watching those flaws manifest themselves in their style of play and generally they fit my expectations, losing or flaming out. I enjoy rooting against these teams because they so constantly reaffirm what I already believe, confirming my expectations about the "right" way to run an NFL team. Players do this too. Peyton Manning and Brett Favre have been especially good in recent years about fulfilling expectations. Everyone fits nicely into the little NFL machine I've built in my head.
Well, the Raiders had an expectation and they were doing an amazing job of doing exactly the same thing everyone expected them to do. They were hiring awful, awful head coaches (See Art Shell, Lane Kiffin or Tom Cable). Raider draft predictions were the best. You'd find the guy with the top 40 time and they would reach for em' (See Fabian Washington and Darius Heyward-Bey). Even if they got the right guy, like Darren McFadden, they would let them wither away. While I still think they're wasting him, things may be a changing. I don't know if Al Davis died and is now a robot, thus allowing personnel people to modernize (at least from the 70's to the 90's) or what but somehow they haven't been quite as dumb recently. At last years draft, they got a guy who was reportedly really high on the Jags board, Rolando McClain, as well as their normal athletic freak, Bruce Cambell. Thing is, normally they'd draft Cambell two or three rounds too early, and who knows, maybe no one would have drafted him until the 7th, but getting him in the 4th seems like a reasonable risk. They've also been hitting on a picks recently, not at a crazy rate, but enough that they're keeping their heads above water. They got Louis Murphy in the 4th in 2009, Mario Henderson, Zach Miller and Michael Bush in 2007. I'm sure there are more but long paragraph short, the Raiders aren't meeting those expectations. Now they're 6-6, the Jags are only one game better, and the Raiders do a lot of things I really admire.
Stupidly, I posted a while back how I thought the Jags would finish out the season. Well, being the crotchety, pessimistic fart that I am, they've exceeded expectations. Which, is fine by me, cause no one remembers predictions generally, and literally no one remembers predictions posted in this space. This game, along with Washington and Cleveland, which the Jags really, really should have lost, were the only wins I predicted.
If there is such a thing as a trap game, this is it. Jags have visions of division titles dancing in their heads, and although technically they can't clinch, if they win this week and next, they'll have done the heavy lifting. I always feel like when a team spends the week talking about how their not looking ahead, that's a problem. Not that they can't win but its only natural. This Raiders team also just dismantled a Chargers team that manhandled the Jaguars in week 2. I think Del Rio is still coaching for his job. He knows if they collapse and don't make the playoffs, he's out. Also, this team has pretty consistently played well when a let down could have been predicted, such as in the Buffalo game or last week in Tennessee. I don't have a great feel for this week but I think the Jags are going to give a top effort the rest of the way.
Some final thoughts:
I don't really like the Raiders. I'm only a fan of the Jags but there tend to be teams I respect and like to see do well. These are teams I believe do it "the right way." They draft well, develop players, are prudent in free agency, and take bold moves to prune their roster when the time comes. They tend to have strong identities and stick with a coach for a while. The three that immediately jump to mind are the Steelers, Giants and Eagles (If I was a more objective person than I am, I'd throw the Titans in there too but screw them. I hope they give Vince Young 100 bazillion dollars for the next 40 years). They've all won enough to be relevant and respectable but haven't quite reached the point of insufferability (spell check says that's not a word. I completely refudiate that notion spell check.)
On the other side of my NFL morality spectrum (note: not real morality but morality within the reality of the NFL. In walking-around-real life, I frown upon rapists and puppy kickers) are those teams whom I think have a fundamental flaw in how they operate. They may spend recklessly, fire coaches too quickly, or have owners who are overly invested in football decisions. See Redskins, Washington and Cowboys, Dallas. I tend to enjoy watching those flaws manifest themselves in their style of play and generally they fit my expectations, losing or flaming out. I enjoy rooting against these teams because they so constantly reaffirm what I already believe, confirming my expectations about the "right" way to run an NFL team. Players do this too. Peyton Manning and Brett Favre have been especially good in recent years about fulfilling expectations. Everyone fits nicely into the little NFL machine I've built in my head.
Well, the Raiders had an expectation and they were doing an amazing job of doing exactly the same thing everyone expected them to do. They were hiring awful, awful head coaches (See Art Shell, Lane Kiffin or Tom Cable). Raider draft predictions were the best. You'd find the guy with the top 40 time and they would reach for em' (See Fabian Washington and Darius Heyward-Bey). Even if they got the right guy, like Darren McFadden, they would let them wither away. While I still think they're wasting him, things may be a changing. I don't know if Al Davis died and is now a robot, thus allowing personnel people to modernize (at least from the 70's to the 90's) or what but somehow they haven't been quite as dumb recently. At last years draft, they got a guy who was reportedly really high on the Jags board, Rolando McClain, as well as their normal athletic freak, Bruce Cambell. Thing is, normally they'd draft Cambell two or three rounds too early, and who knows, maybe no one would have drafted him until the 7th, but getting him in the 4th seems like a reasonable risk. They've also been hitting on a picks recently, not at a crazy rate, but enough that they're keeping their heads above water. They got Louis Murphy in the 4th in 2009, Mario Henderson, Zach Miller and Michael Bush in 2007. I'm sure there are more but long paragraph short, the Raiders aren't meeting those expectations. Now they're 6-6, the Jags are only one game better, and the Raiders do a lot of things I really admire.
Stupidly, I posted a while back how I thought the Jags would finish out the season. Well, being the crotchety, pessimistic fart that I am, they've exceeded expectations. Which, is fine by me, cause no one remembers predictions generally, and literally no one remembers predictions posted in this space. This game, along with Washington and Cleveland, which the Jags really, really should have lost, were the only wins I predicted.
If there is such a thing as a trap game, this is it. Jags have visions of division titles dancing in their heads, and although technically they can't clinch, if they win this week and next, they'll have done the heavy lifting. I always feel like when a team spends the week talking about how their not looking ahead, that's a problem. Not that they can't win but its only natural. This Raiders team also just dismantled a Chargers team that manhandled the Jaguars in week 2. I think Del Rio is still coaching for his job. He knows if they collapse and don't make the playoffs, he's out. Also, this team has pretty consistently played well when a let down could have been predicted, such as in the Buffalo game or last week in Tennessee. I don't have a great feel for this week but I think the Jags are going to give a top effort the rest of the way.
Some final thoughts:
- I've been following this column that puts out a prediction for NFL games each week. For the first time since it started (in week 4), the Jags are predicted to win. Unfortunately, as the Jags have won many a game since week 4, it has been horrible at predicting Jags games. I'd guess its been equally unreliable for the Raiders. It also only gave them a 7% chance last week and they beat the pants off the Chargers. For the first time this season, I'm hoping its right.
- A few updates on the LA situation as it relates to the Chargers. I think Jags fans should really root for the Chargers or Raiders to move to LA, as opposed to Minnesota. The NFL wouldn't rush to refill the San Diego or Oakland market the way they would want to put another franchise in Minnesota if they figured out the stadium situation. And to anyone who thinks fans in these cities shouldn't root for some other team to fill the LA void, this is a zero sum game and somebody is going to go there. HT to Myles for the LA times article
- There's been some talk about whether MJD is the best back in the league. I'm going to try and do a little rhetorical exercise next week on why that may or may not be the case. If he lays an egg this weekend, that could have an effect.
I think I should actually want Tennessee to lose tonight for Jags playoff chances but after last week, they're cooked. That said, if they could squeeze out a victory against the Colts, I'd take it. So...gulp...Go Titans!
-Q
Monday, December 6, 2010
It's been a while...
...well its been a while since I've posted (Thanksgiving, laziness, job that pays, yada, yada)
...but it's also been a while since the Jaguars have been leading a division this late in the season (since 1999 and that was the AFC Central).
Some thoughts...
Jags dominated. I honestly can't remember the last time the Jags were able to impose their will on a team the way they did in the first half of the game. First thing that pops to mind is when the Jags ran all over the Colts in 2006. I was elated afterwards. They were 8-5. Unfortunately, the Jags somehow lost three straight to finish 8-8 and out of the playoffs. The Colts won the Super Bowl. I'd say there have been better seasons to be Jags fans.
Judging by yesterday, I have to think Jeff Fisher wants out of Tennessee and I can't blame him. Why stay around and deal with Vince Young and ol' Bud Adams? Go somewhere else, collect your cool 7 million, or god knows how much he'll get paid, and leave the AFC South (please, please leave the AFC South). He'll probably end up going to Houston, which is actually pretty terrifying. The idea of the Titans offseason being smothered in turmoil is pretty enticing to me. I truly hope Adams is given a significant amount of sway over who their next head coach is. And why shouldn't he? It's his team, he's 87, do something awesome like hire Wade Phillips, or coach the team yourself, Bud. You know more than these young whippersnappers. That's why the Titan's have Vince Young. Otherwise, they would have done something silly like draft D'Brickashaw Ferguson. Wouldn't want any Pro Bowl offensive lineman? (OK, so that's probably not fair. They probably would have drafted Matt Leinart or something. But this is the Titans and I prefer to direct as much of my irrationality at them as I can).
Off Tennessee, and back to yesterday's game...
Everyone get off of Scobee's back. Yes, he technically missed two field goals. The blocked one wasn't his fault. Seriously. I don't know a ton about field goal protection but when the guy breaks through the middle of the line and is three yards behind the center, it's not the kicker's fault. Vic didn't help this by saying it was a low kick, which was probably true, but 48 yard field goals have to be kicked low, and when a guy is standing in the backfield it doesn't really matter. Jags are lucky the ball still got across the line of scrimmage. The second field goal was from 49 yards. Not a chip shot and it hit the post. One more inch and he's not bizarrely responsible for almost letting the Titans back into it.
I thought the play calling was really interesting. Obviously they were confident they could run the ball but after all the play calling criticism last week, which focused generally on needing more running, I wonder if there was a little "you want run, you get run" aspect to this. Dirk Koetter really is a quality offensive coordinator. I'll make a mini-prediction. Gene Smith gets him a few more weapons on offense. He becomes a head coach again, either in college or the NFL. I really like it though that a guy who is "a passing guy" can run the ball when that's what his personnel calls for, which really was the case yesterday. I didn't think about it before the game but really there was no other choice but to run the ball. Garrard's wrist is hurt. He didn't show too many effects and he was still able to throw the ball but I think they wanted to limit his exposure to being sacked. Also, Mike Sims-Walker was out. We can mix it up pretty well without him, and Zach Miller is looking like quite the fine football player, but Sims-Walker makes plays no one else at this point is going to make. Unfortunately, I think he's a guy who needs to be close to 100% healthy to be effective. It'll be interesting to see if they bring him back next year, or what kind of market there is for him. With him out and Garrard's wrist I think the emphasis (seems like too small a word when your 12 play opening drive features 11 runs) on running was inevitable. That said, I didn't see it coming.
The Jags have played better in the first half of their last two games than they did in the second half. This means fans potentially get to read two things ad nauseum 1) The Jags lack killer instinct. and 2) The coaching staff isn't making the right adjustments (or something to that effect). These things could be true but most likely they are not. I personally don't think there is anything such as killer instinct. Is it possible the Jags weren't as focused for the second half as they were to start the game? Potentially but that's human nature. More likely, the Titan's started out flat. They were embarrassed (as they should be) and they committed to a better effort in the second half. While it would be nice if the Jags could take their game to a higher level (Note: It would always be nice if the Jags could take their game to a higher level), truth is, it's much more likely the Titans were going to come out and play closer to their ability level, which I'd say is approximately the same as the Jags. The difference between these two teams is one is dealing with a lot of off the field crap (Where are Vince Young's shoulder pads?) while the Jags are fairly stable. With the Giants, they also came out and played at about their ability level in the 2nd half last week. Unfortunately, that ability level is probably a category above the Jaguars, and thus we couldn't hang on. As for "adjustments", NFL locker rooms are kinda crazy, yeah coaches probably have a moment to think things over but you don't put in 120 hour work weeks to mix it up on the fly in 15 minutes.
Some perspective, at least four times this season this team has been absolutely dominated. After losing their best defensive player, their biggest issue suddenly is letting teams creep back into the game. What Jaguars fan wouldn't have taken this trade a month ago? Fans should keep demanding their team gets better. We're insatiable. We always want more. This season has been a sweet ride though. The Jags control their own destiny and do so in a way that seems much more legitimate than at this point a year ago, when they did so for the wild card. Putting a more secure hold on professional football in Jacksonville seems possible (Two more non-blackouts please). We have Gene Smith. Jags fans are lucky. We should appreciate these moments.
Finally, a quick thought on Del Rio. To be honest, I was done with this guy. I think most Jags fans were. We were frustrated and even if, like me, you thought he was an average coach, you wanted better than average. Well, he deserves some credit. He's probably had subpar talent for a number of years. He taken a lot of abuse. People questioning him about college jobs in the parking lot and all kinds of other silliness. He deserves an apology. If they collapse this year I think he still probably gets fired but assuming they don't and he doesn't, Jags fans should be happy. They've got a guy who captains the ship much better than a lot of more heralded guys do. Also, I really like the style he aspires to (and I'm not talking about the suits). He always gets back to "run the ball, stop the run" and while it probably leaves us fighting the current of the NFL, I think its a style that Jacksonville can really embrace. Our teal color doesn't lend itself to toughness but his style does. I'm glad we can kick some ass.
-Q
...but it's also been a while since the Jaguars have been leading a division this late in the season (since 1999 and that was the AFC Central).
Some thoughts...
Jags dominated. I honestly can't remember the last time the Jags were able to impose their will on a team the way they did in the first half of the game. First thing that pops to mind is when the Jags ran all over the Colts in 2006. I was elated afterwards. They were 8-5. Unfortunately, the Jags somehow lost three straight to finish 8-8 and out of the playoffs. The Colts won the Super Bowl. I'd say there have been better seasons to be Jags fans.
Judging by yesterday, I have to think Jeff Fisher wants out of Tennessee and I can't blame him. Why stay around and deal with Vince Young and ol' Bud Adams? Go somewhere else, collect your cool 7 million, or god knows how much he'll get paid, and leave the AFC South (please, please leave the AFC South). He'll probably end up going to Houston, which is actually pretty terrifying. The idea of the Titans offseason being smothered in turmoil is pretty enticing to me. I truly hope Adams is given a significant amount of sway over who their next head coach is. And why shouldn't he? It's his team, he's 87, do something awesome like hire Wade Phillips, or coach the team yourself, Bud. You know more than these young whippersnappers. That's why the Titan's have Vince Young. Otherwise, they would have done something silly like draft D'Brickashaw Ferguson. Wouldn't want any Pro Bowl offensive lineman? (OK, so that's probably not fair. They probably would have drafted Matt Leinart or something. But this is the Titans and I prefer to direct as much of my irrationality at them as I can).
Off Tennessee, and back to yesterday's game...
Everyone get off of Scobee's back. Yes, he technically missed two field goals. The blocked one wasn't his fault. Seriously. I don't know a ton about field goal protection but when the guy breaks through the middle of the line and is three yards behind the center, it's not the kicker's fault. Vic didn't help this by saying it was a low kick, which was probably true, but 48 yard field goals have to be kicked low, and when a guy is standing in the backfield it doesn't really matter. Jags are lucky the ball still got across the line of scrimmage. The second field goal was from 49 yards. Not a chip shot and it hit the post. One more inch and he's not bizarrely responsible for almost letting the Titans back into it.
I thought the play calling was really interesting. Obviously they were confident they could run the ball but after all the play calling criticism last week, which focused generally on needing more running, I wonder if there was a little "you want run, you get run" aspect to this. Dirk Koetter really is a quality offensive coordinator. I'll make a mini-prediction. Gene Smith gets him a few more weapons on offense. He becomes a head coach again, either in college or the NFL. I really like it though that a guy who is "a passing guy" can run the ball when that's what his personnel calls for, which really was the case yesterday. I didn't think about it before the game but really there was no other choice but to run the ball. Garrard's wrist is hurt. He didn't show too many effects and he was still able to throw the ball but I think they wanted to limit his exposure to being sacked. Also, Mike Sims-Walker was out. We can mix it up pretty well without him, and Zach Miller is looking like quite the fine football player, but Sims-Walker makes plays no one else at this point is going to make. Unfortunately, I think he's a guy who needs to be close to 100% healthy to be effective. It'll be interesting to see if they bring him back next year, or what kind of market there is for him. With him out and Garrard's wrist I think the emphasis (seems like too small a word when your 12 play opening drive features 11 runs) on running was inevitable. That said, I didn't see it coming.
The Jags have played better in the first half of their last two games than they did in the second half. This means fans potentially get to read two things ad nauseum 1) The Jags lack killer instinct. and 2) The coaching staff isn't making the right adjustments (or something to that effect). These things could be true but most likely they are not. I personally don't think there is anything such as killer instinct. Is it possible the Jags weren't as focused for the second half as they were to start the game? Potentially but that's human nature. More likely, the Titan's started out flat. They were embarrassed (as they should be) and they committed to a better effort in the second half. While it would be nice if the Jags could take their game to a higher level (Note: It would always be nice if the Jags could take their game to a higher level), truth is, it's much more likely the Titans were going to come out and play closer to their ability level, which I'd say is approximately the same as the Jags. The difference between these two teams is one is dealing with a lot of off the field crap (Where are Vince Young's shoulder pads?) while the Jags are fairly stable. With the Giants, they also came out and played at about their ability level in the 2nd half last week. Unfortunately, that ability level is probably a category above the Jaguars, and thus we couldn't hang on. As for "adjustments", NFL locker rooms are kinda crazy, yeah coaches probably have a moment to think things over but you don't put in 120 hour work weeks to mix it up on the fly in 15 minutes.
Some perspective, at least four times this season this team has been absolutely dominated. After losing their best defensive player, their biggest issue suddenly is letting teams creep back into the game. What Jaguars fan wouldn't have taken this trade a month ago? Fans should keep demanding their team gets better. We're insatiable. We always want more. This season has been a sweet ride though. The Jags control their own destiny and do so in a way that seems much more legitimate than at this point a year ago, when they did so for the wild card. Putting a more secure hold on professional football in Jacksonville seems possible (Two more non-blackouts please). We have Gene Smith. Jags fans are lucky. We should appreciate these moments.
Finally, a quick thought on Del Rio. To be honest, I was done with this guy. I think most Jags fans were. We were frustrated and even if, like me, you thought he was an average coach, you wanted better than average. Well, he deserves some credit. He's probably had subpar talent for a number of years. He taken a lot of abuse. People questioning him about college jobs in the parking lot and all kinds of other silliness. He deserves an apology. If they collapse this year I think he still probably gets fired but assuming they don't and he doesn't, Jags fans should be happy. They've got a guy who captains the ship much better than a lot of more heralded guys do. Also, I really like the style he aspires to (and I'm not talking about the suits). He always gets back to "run the ball, stop the run" and while it probably leaves us fighting the current of the NFL, I think its a style that Jacksonville can really embrace. Our teal color doesn't lend itself to toughness but his style does. I'm glad we can kick some ass.
-Q
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Beat the bad (and the Colts)
This little bit from Paul Kuharsky reinforces the thought I was trying to convey yesterday. The Jags beat the bad teams (Denver, Buffalo, and Dallas) plus the Colts.
It's not getting any easier but the Texans looked imminently beatable yesterday so maybe if we can pick up the "easy" wins (read teams we're better than) and pick off one against Houston and someone else we'll have a chance.
-Q
It's not getting any easier but the Texans looked imminently beatable yesterday so maybe if we can pick up the "easy" wins (read teams we're better than) and pick off one against Houston and someone else we'll have a chance.
-Q
Monday, November 1, 2010
Thank you Mr. Phillips
Yesterday, the Jaguars beat the Dallas Cowboys handily. Teams coming off back to back 20 point losses are not supposed to win handily. They pulled a similar trick with the Colts (although beating a dysfunctional 1-5 Cowboys team doesn't produce quite the same emotional reaction). So many, many people are saying there's some significant variance to the Jags performance, and that's undoubtedly true. They haven't been consistent but honestly when you step back, the outcomes pretty much line up right where you'd expect an average team in the NFL to fall. A quick look:
1) Beat the Broncos who aren't very good and are dysfunctional.
2) Lost to Philly and San Diego, two teams with a significant talent advantage it would seem. Certainly not games I'd expect the Jags to win if they played again.
3) Beat the Colts - This is the real aberration, especially given the secondary, but honestly the Colts aren't very good. They're a one man show which leaves them vulnerable.
4) Beat a bad Buffalo team. This is a team the Jags should beat consistently.
5) Lost to Kansas City. A team a year (or maybe more) ahead of the Jags in terms of rebuilding but probably their only loss which they maybe could've won.
6) Beat Dallas. Another dysfunctional team.
Coaches often get criticized for playing too much to the final score but the results of this season shouldn't have Del Rio feeling as much heat as he is. I have to wonder if he wishes he'd altered his strategy more to keep games close even if it didn't give them the best chance to win. Del Rio has taken a lot of punishment but the Jags have had a coaching advantage in at least 5 of their games (Denver, San Diego, Indy, Buffalo and Dallas). Anywho, onto thoughts about the game:
1) Bye. Done. Almost victory or at least feels not bad. Holding strong at 4-4.
2) Houston, beatable but they're the better team. 4-5
3) Cleveland, fingers crossed for Colt McCoy. Regardless, 5-5.
4) @NY Giants, yeah that's not gonna happen. 5-6
5) @Tennessee. Hopefully it won't deflate us. 5-7
6) Oakland. I'm not buying them. Plus they play to our strengths. 6-7
7) @Indianapolis. Can we sweep the Colts? Hmmm, sadly, let's be conservative. 6-8
8) Washington. Hooray for dysfunctional franchises. 7-8
9) @Houston. Maybe Schaub will get hurt but otherwise...7-9
So I'd say that's out expected finish at this point. it basically shakes down to us beating bad teams without quality quarterbacks. We shall see...
-Q
1) Beat the Broncos who aren't very good and are dysfunctional.
2) Lost to Philly and San Diego, two teams with a significant talent advantage it would seem. Certainly not games I'd expect the Jags to win if they played again.
3) Beat the Colts - This is the real aberration, especially given the secondary, but honestly the Colts aren't very good. They're a one man show which leaves them vulnerable.
4) Beat a bad Buffalo team. This is a team the Jags should beat consistently.
5) Lost to Kansas City. A team a year (or maybe more) ahead of the Jags in terms of rebuilding but probably their only loss which they maybe could've won.
6) Beat Dallas. Another dysfunctional team.
Coaches often get criticized for playing too much to the final score but the results of this season shouldn't have Del Rio feeling as much heat as he is. I have to wonder if he wishes he'd altered his strategy more to keep games close even if it didn't give them the best chance to win. Del Rio has taken a lot of punishment but the Jags have had a coaching advantage in at least 5 of their games (Denver, San Diego, Indy, Buffalo and Dallas). Anywho, onto thoughts about the game:
- Uche said this about Garrard and I thought it was spot on: "When he's on his game, he's on his game. When he's focused in and dialed in and making good decisions, he's a top-tier guy. That's what we need from him every week." Yesterday was a better game for Garrard than Trent Edwards, or Todd Bouman, have ever played. If the Jags have any hope of getting hot this season, and it looks like they'll need to if they want to avoid the blackouts, it rests on the idiosyncratic arm of one David Douglas Garrard.
- I mentioned last week that Dallas fans were pessimistic. For good reason. Every semi-intelligent Jags fan should thank themselves that we have Wayne Weaver and not a Jerry Jones or Mike Brown. I can't imagine how sickening it must feel to have an owner/gm. Every problem your team has flows right from the tippy top, which ultimately means that people can't be held responsible. To put this in perspective, imagine Shack Harris owned the Jaguars. Except its worse. Cause now Shack doesn't do scouting or watch tape (at best these owner/gms are watching 50% of the tape that a guy like Gene smith watches and I'd say that's pushing it). He's also never getting fired and even if he does the smart thing and brings in a real football person, he'll chase them away (See Parcells, Bill). I think I'll write a Christmas card to Mr. Weaver.
- So last week I wrote about the prediction model giving the Jags a 17% chance of winning. Couple that with a slew of experts who unanimously picked the Cowboys (Cause you always should go with that Phillips-Kitna combo when available) and the Jags looked like an unlikely victor. Let this be a lesson to all those budding econometricians out there: Predicting individual outcomes is difficult. One side note: "Experts" are going to go with the fan base that annoys them the most. They know they'll hear from cowboys fans if they blow the pick but Jags fans aren't going to have the clout to get noticed. This isn't a whining thing. If anything I think its good for the Jags. Preseason hype doesn't win you games and has a habit of infecting minds. Players can read too.
- For the record, the prediction models record for the Jags this season is 2-3 (started in week 4). It has predicted the Jags to lose every game. It gave the Jags their greatest chance against Tennessee (43%) and their worst chance against Kansas City (14%). Oddly those are the two games it got right. I'll keep watching
- When this season is over a lot is going to be written about Derek Cox, his future with the Jags, and Del Rio. Player evaluation has normally been Del Rio's wheel house (I want a wheel house. Just sounds fun) but he messed this situation up. Cox has flashed and if nothing else can catch. He was undeniably bad against Denver and maybe he was hurt, we'll probably never know, but didn't deserve to be sat for so long especially considering the play of the secondary. While by no mean a firable offense if Del Rio is gone after this season its partly to him yanking the chain on Mr. Cox. Cox has flashed was more than Derrick Harvey and we've kept his ass on the field through thick and thin. Coaches don't normally blow things in this manner so maybe Del Rio is ahead of the curve on this. My fear is its all been a power play against Gene Smith but that seems crazy. Once again, just keep watching.
- David Garrard, fourth rated QB in the NFL this season. I wonder if he just goes home looks in the mirror and says 'suck it Jags fans.' People act like this up and down thing has always been his trademark but in 2007, he threw 15 TDs and 3 interceptions, and he's consistently been criticized for being a game manager. I don't know except to say we should ride it out. If it was a movie it would be more dramatic, riveting even, but since we have to watch the games I think excruciating is more apt.
1) Bye. Done. Almost victory or at least feels not bad. Holding strong at 4-4.
2) Houston, beatable but they're the better team. 4-5
3) Cleveland, fingers crossed for Colt McCoy. Regardless, 5-5.
4) @NY Giants, yeah that's not gonna happen. 5-6
5) @Tennessee. Hopefully it won't deflate us. 5-7
6) Oakland. I'm not buying them. Plus they play to our strengths. 6-7
7) @Indianapolis. Can we sweep the Colts? Hmmm, sadly, let's be conservative. 6-8
8) Washington. Hooray for dysfunctional franchises. 7-8
9) @Houston. Maybe Schaub will get hurt but otherwise...7-9
So I'd say that's out expected finish at this point. it basically shakes down to us beating bad teams without quality quarterbacks. We shall see...
-Q
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Arg so its been awhile and I'm not so good at this blogging thing. So every week Brian Burke of http://www.advancednflstats.com/ puts out probabilities for each game. As best I can tell its a fairly straight forward logit regression model but he uses some interesting explanatory variables, with a focus (naturally) towards predictive variables and independence. In any case, this week the model gave the Jaguars an incredibly low chance of winning, and maybe they deserve it, but check it out. 17%. Sheesh and I don't even think this takes into account Garrard returning from a concussion.
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/28/week-8-n-f-l-game-probabilities-and-the-loss-of-romo/
I'm going to attempt to do a Sunday or Monday response post to the game with some initial thoughts from now on (I'll remember this line when I haven't posted in three weeks).
A couple of delayed opinions:
The lead up to this game has been odd. Whenever I've read bad news for the Jags (no shortage of material this week), Cowboys fans have been in the comments absolutely trashing their team. Something has got to give this week. Who knows, maybe Wade Phillips will help us out?
-Q
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/28/week-8-n-f-l-game-probabilities-and-the-loss-of-romo/
I'm going to attempt to do a Sunday or Monday response post to the game with some initial thoughts from now on (I'll remember this line when I haven't posted in three weeks).
A couple of delayed opinions:
- I don't see any advantage to getting rid of Del Rio or Garrard this season other than to appease the fans. Generally, that's a poor decision making metric for winning football games. They'd both get paid regardless (cash matters in Jax) and what's frustrating is their actual performance is inconsistent with a fairly average final result. You're not going to get more consistency by firing your coach, and while you could get more consistent performance at QB, I think it's going to come with a performance cost. There's a reason all of our QBs (except Garrard) were on the street two weeks ago. Garrard will still produce good, seemingly great games this season (hard to accept I know). That said, after the season, ship em' out.
- I understand the call for Del Rio's head but do people honestly think this Jags team is underachieving record wise? I can't imagine them being better than 3-4 with that secondary. I thought I was being pessimistic wondering if the Jags had the worst secondary ever after Ryan Fitzpatrick had his way with us but its a more legitimate position with every passing week.
- I was totally shocked when the Jags cut Scott Starks and thought he'd get picked up somewhere (always a decent test for talent level). Well, he's still out there...once again, not a good sign when your presumptive preseason third corner has been on the street all year.
The lead up to this game has been odd. Whenever I've read bad news for the Jags (no shortage of material this week), Cowboys fans have been in the comments absolutely trashing their team. Something has got to give this week. Who knows, maybe Wade Phillips will help us out?
-Q
Monday, October 4, 2010
Down Goes Peyton! Down Goes Peyton!
Hmmm, biggest win for Jags since 2007 (at least) and I re-start blogging. I am either a big bandwagon jumper or lazy (I've been watching I swear). Anyway, here's my thoughts
1) As good as this feels now, if the Jags go 4-12 or 5-11, I don't think it'll matter much. That said, it feels really good and I can't remember ever being more proud of a Del Rio coached team.
2) Seriously, what the hell is going on with Derek Cox? I mean, yeah he had a bad game against Denver but David Jones is not good. He's certainly confident but I actually think he is kind of a shabby corner. In an odd way though I sort of trust the coaching staff on this one. when something seems this obvious to fans there always seems to be something we don't know about. I hope Derek Cox gets back on track though.
3) Speaking of WTFs, um...Mike Sims-Walker, where are you? I don't know what's going on here but the ceiling for this offense is pretty low if he doesn't take a step forward.
4) So the secondary has been bad, really bad, a borderline joke but I actually don't think Rashean Mathis has played too poorly. He got beat on the Maclin touchdown at the end of the first half against the Eagles, and that was bad no doubt, but otherwise big plays seem to be going to the other side. Unfortunately, it might just be that the right side is so weak, why attempt throwing at Mathis? A simple comparison of Reggie Wayne vs Austin Collie's stats from this past weekend illustrates my point well. Wayne had 15 catches for 196 yards, Collie had 5 catches for 39 yards with a TD. It appeared Gerald Alexander was responsible for Collie on the TD as well but only the coaches know that for sure. In any case I think Mathis isn't getting his due and if the Jags could lock up the RCB their secondary play would improve considerably.
5) Interesting stat all things considered: Mo-Jo's 322 rushing yards are a career high through 4 games. Interesting considering consensus is he's had a slow start. I imagine that is mostly fantasy blowback for the lack of TDs but my lying eyes do tell me he's lacking burst and the less than ideal 3.9 yards a carry backs that up. Hopefully, the little tank that could gets those yards a little easier from now on. He's clearly hobbled though
6) A really quiet day for Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. I was way too absorbed in the game to watch Monroe and Britton closely but hopefully their play was as stellar as Freeney and Mathis' was quiet.
7) So we all love to hate on Shack Harris, and rightfully so, but lets point out that the 2006 draft yielded Marcedes Lewis and Mo-Jo (and of course nothing else, but quiet I'm making a point). Those two, and possibly Daryl Smith, are the only players the Jags have who are currently one of the 5 to 10 best at their position in the NFL. Which is to say, that the Jags potentially have a distinct talent advantage there thanks to Mr. Harris. They scored three of the four touchdowns yesterday so, while I'm glad you're gone, thanks for not leaving the cupboard totally bare Shack.
8) Where do we go from here? A quick run down of the schedule seems to indicate a long way to go. When it first came out it looked as if the 1st qtr of the season was going to be the most difficult, and it may still be, but there's little place to look for relief. The next four are the Bills, Titans, Chiefs and Cowboys. We need to win at least two of those games and I think the Bills are feistier than Jags fans give them credit for. After that we still have two games against the division leading Texans, another game against the Colts and Titans, throw in the Redskins and Giants, neither of whom are slouches. The easiest games in the final stretch appear to be the Raiders and Browns but it wasn't too long ago the Jags were considered finished and its the NFL, so yeah, we got a ways to go...
A final note: I hope this season lives up to the potential this game allows it to. I'm a cynical, awful person to watch football games with and this one brought me to the edge of tears yesterday (hell, it's doing it right now). This one really felt special. God, it was amazing.
-Q
1) As good as this feels now, if the Jags go 4-12 or 5-11, I don't think it'll matter much. That said, it feels really good and I can't remember ever being more proud of a Del Rio coached team.
2) Seriously, what the hell is going on with Derek Cox? I mean, yeah he had a bad game against Denver but David Jones is not good. He's certainly confident but I actually think he is kind of a shabby corner. In an odd way though I sort of trust the coaching staff on this one. when something seems this obvious to fans there always seems to be something we don't know about. I hope Derek Cox gets back on track though.
3) Speaking of WTFs, um...Mike Sims-Walker, where are you? I don't know what's going on here but the ceiling for this offense is pretty low if he doesn't take a step forward.
4) So the secondary has been bad, really bad, a borderline joke but I actually don't think Rashean Mathis has played too poorly. He got beat on the Maclin touchdown at the end of the first half against the Eagles, and that was bad no doubt, but otherwise big plays seem to be going to the other side. Unfortunately, it might just be that the right side is so weak, why attempt throwing at Mathis? A simple comparison of Reggie Wayne vs Austin Collie's stats from this past weekend illustrates my point well. Wayne had 15 catches for 196 yards, Collie had 5 catches for 39 yards with a TD. It appeared Gerald Alexander was responsible for Collie on the TD as well but only the coaches know that for sure. In any case I think Mathis isn't getting his due and if the Jags could lock up the RCB their secondary play would improve considerably.
5) Interesting stat all things considered: Mo-Jo's 322 rushing yards are a career high through 4 games. Interesting considering consensus is he's had a slow start. I imagine that is mostly fantasy blowback for the lack of TDs but my lying eyes do tell me he's lacking burst and the less than ideal 3.9 yards a carry backs that up. Hopefully, the little tank that could gets those yards a little easier from now on. He's clearly hobbled though
6) A really quiet day for Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. I was way too absorbed in the game to watch Monroe and Britton closely but hopefully their play was as stellar as Freeney and Mathis' was quiet.
7) So we all love to hate on Shack Harris, and rightfully so, but lets point out that the 2006 draft yielded Marcedes Lewis and Mo-Jo (and of course nothing else, but quiet I'm making a point). Those two, and possibly Daryl Smith, are the only players the Jags have who are currently one of the 5 to 10 best at their position in the NFL. Which is to say, that the Jags potentially have a distinct talent advantage there thanks to Mr. Harris. They scored three of the four touchdowns yesterday so, while I'm glad you're gone, thanks for not leaving the cupboard totally bare Shack.
8) Where do we go from here? A quick run down of the schedule seems to indicate a long way to go. When it first came out it looked as if the 1st qtr of the season was going to be the most difficult, and it may still be, but there's little place to look for relief. The next four are the Bills, Titans, Chiefs and Cowboys. We need to win at least two of those games and I think the Bills are feistier than Jags fans give them credit for. After that we still have two games against the division leading Texans, another game against the Colts and Titans, throw in the Redskins and Giants, neither of whom are slouches. The easiest games in the final stretch appear to be the Raiders and Browns but it wasn't too long ago the Jags were considered finished and its the NFL, so yeah, we got a ways to go...
A final note: I hope this season lives up to the potential this game allows it to. I'm a cynical, awful person to watch football games with and this one brought me to the edge of tears yesterday (hell, it's doing it right now). This one really felt special. God, it was amazing.
-Q
Monday, July 19, 2010
The Ticket Situation
It was recently released that the Jaguars would need to sell approximately 11,000 tickets to avoid blackouts this season. Of that, approximately 6,000 are the fans responsibility and 5,000 will come from group sales.
I’ve had a fear for quite sometime that there’s no ticket push coming in July despite it traditionally being the best sales month. I think the Jaguars may have pulled demand forward through the 30 for 30 plan and the publicity from Team Teal. If true, sadly, it means the whale is going to stay on the beach for a while longer and the Jaguars long term ability to stay in Jacksonville is going to be exposed in a (if it’s possible) even more devastating way.
A couple of thoughts on pulling tickets sales forward:
• It’s a good thing. There’s no value in waiting. It doesn’t in any way diminish fans who stepped up. Better to get those tickets sold than to wait. It also brings into focus exactly how dire the situation is.
• Downside. There probably aren’t a ton of people out there who a) don’t know tickets are available and b) need you to do something to make them more enticing, which means the hardest tickets to sell are the ones we have left. If the free 30 month loan and $2,000 dollars worth of Teal Deals didn’t do it nor the threat of the team leaving didn’t/civic duty push, I don’t know if realistically there’s much that can be done right now to make tickets more appealing. They can’t be cheaper or more public than they are now.
At this point I think the Jags only have a few options left in the gimmick department. They may bring back out the half-season packs they used last year. I have no idea how successful they were but I think that could still be an appealing package for a segment of consumers. That said, the Jags probably know exactly how successful those packages were and the effect those had on other sales, so I’m guessing we won’t be seeing any half-packs(they’ve also started selling single game preseason tickets which I think may signal a shift in focus towards single game sales).
A smart option, that I really hope the Jags employ, is to offer the Denver game, the Indy game and/or the Titans game as packages coupled with a less attractive game from later in the season (See Oakland and Cleveland. Although, I am personally excited to see the corpse of Al Davis and Jake Delhomme in consecutive home games).
The bottom line is that unless there’s a rush of demand from some unforeseen market (Come on Orlando and Savannah!), then the Jags are going to be fighting a week to week battle with the blackout monster. The ability of the Jags to win that fight is going to be based on a few factors outside of their control (namely unemployment and weather) but also on how hot a ticket they can be once the season starts. On the plus side, they’re going to have some time to get the ball rolling with the Broncos, Eagles, Colts and Titans. The downside is those games are easier to sell out (with the exception of Denver) because those teams are competitive rivals who will be fighting for playing spots. Realistically, for the Jags to be hot, I think they need to come home to Houston 6-2 or better, and probably on a 4 or 5 game win streak. Can they do it? Who knows but that’s why they play the games, right?
-AQW
I’ve had a fear for quite sometime that there’s no ticket push coming in July despite it traditionally being the best sales month. I think the Jaguars may have pulled demand forward through the 30 for 30 plan and the publicity from Team Teal. If true, sadly, it means the whale is going to stay on the beach for a while longer and the Jaguars long term ability to stay in Jacksonville is going to be exposed in a (if it’s possible) even more devastating way.
A couple of thoughts on pulling tickets sales forward:
• It’s a good thing. There’s no value in waiting. It doesn’t in any way diminish fans who stepped up. Better to get those tickets sold than to wait. It also brings into focus exactly how dire the situation is.
• Downside. There probably aren’t a ton of people out there who a) don’t know tickets are available and b) need you to do something to make them more enticing, which means the hardest tickets to sell are the ones we have left. If the free 30 month loan and $2,000 dollars worth of Teal Deals didn’t do it nor the threat of the team leaving didn’t/civic duty push, I don’t know if realistically there’s much that can be done right now to make tickets more appealing. They can’t be cheaper or more public than they are now.
At this point I think the Jags only have a few options left in the gimmick department. They may bring back out the half-season packs they used last year. I have no idea how successful they were but I think that could still be an appealing package for a segment of consumers. That said, the Jags probably know exactly how successful those packages were and the effect those had on other sales, so I’m guessing we won’t be seeing any half-packs(they’ve also started selling single game preseason tickets which I think may signal a shift in focus towards single game sales).
A smart option, that I really hope the Jags employ, is to offer the Denver game, the Indy game and/or the Titans game as packages coupled with a less attractive game from later in the season (See Oakland and Cleveland. Although, I am personally excited to see the corpse of Al Davis and Jake Delhomme in consecutive home games).
The bottom line is that unless there’s a rush of demand from some unforeseen market (Come on Orlando and Savannah!), then the Jags are going to be fighting a week to week battle with the blackout monster. The ability of the Jags to win that fight is going to be based on a few factors outside of their control (namely unemployment and weather) but also on how hot a ticket they can be once the season starts. On the plus side, they’re going to have some time to get the ball rolling with the Broncos, Eagles, Colts and Titans. The downside is those games are easier to sell out (with the exception of Denver) because those teams are competitive rivals who will be fighting for playing spots. Realistically, for the Jags to be hot, I think they need to come home to Houston 6-2 or better, and probably on a 4 or 5 game win streak. Can they do it? Who knows but that’s why they play the games, right?
-AQW
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
New York Times take on the Jags
A pretty scathing review of the Jags in the NY Times. It's pretty smart and definitely in-depth. I think he's too critical of Garrard and his characterization of Sims-Walker as inconsistent seems like someone just looking at stats but overall a very impressive take on the Jags from a national writer.
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/14/jacksonville-jaguars-2010-season-preview/#more-46025
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/14/jacksonville-jaguars-2010-season-preview/#more-46025
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Agent's influence
Be warned, not a Jaguars post.
Pro Football Talk had a post last night regarding the influence of agents on broadcasters and on the potential consequences leading up to the draft. Leaving aside the fact that members of the media have little to no influence on NFL GMs (the smart ones at least), how much influence do agents have over clients?
Longtime readers of PFT know they generally overstate the influence an agency or agent has over a client. They see agents as having tons of influence in the league. They may be right, who knows, but I've been around a few NFL front offices and lets just say they're not respected much. PFT draws an analogy to their relationship with NBC but to me that is fundamentally different. NBC pays PFT but the situation is reversed for agents and clients. I don't see what incentive a client has for complying with an agent's request to promote another client (assuming they're not paying him under the table to do so). The agency can threaten to drop the client or negotiate a weaker contract for them but then the client could simply choose another agent who would better represent their interests.
Now if the agency is paying a broadcaster or member of the media under the table then that is a legitimate problem but there's nothing that says an agency needs to have a broadcaster as a client to pay them under a table. Also, lets be real, those relationship are clearly ethical violations and aren't going to easily come to light regardless of the expectation for disclosure.
As for disclosure, you don't want to imply through disclosure that there's bias when in fact there isn't. That's an unnecessary threat to the trust between a media member and their audience (to the extent that such trusts exists, which I believe it does). It also would detract from times when a member of the media has a more legitimate conflict of interest.
To the extent that agents matter, its in that they may facilitate or guide their clients to teams who they have a more natural relationship with. If an agent is on good terms with a team, that team may have an advantage in getting that agent's players to sign. As for client to client, I don't see the evidence or the incentive.
Now a more interesting question may be what influence does a client have over an agent? A scenario, Client A is a declining superstar. Client B is a young buck who hits the free agent market. They share the same agent. If Client A has enough stature then its not inconceivable that they may be able to dissuade their agent from having Client B come to their team. An agent would also have some incentive to guide Client B to a team where he wouldn't compete with his clients. The gains in this scenario mostly go to Client A, with the losses being some marginal loss to Client B (both in salary and best team fit) and with the agent losing some in commission and risking their reputation for getting their client the best deal. How likely is this scenario? I'd say not very. You need a perfect storm with just the right balance of interests. Also, sports agents are ruthlessly competitive and I think an agent who tried to consistently pull this move would lose out eventually but that doesn't mean it can't happen once in a while, especially with superstar clients.
Conspiracy theories are fun and some of them are bound to be truish but I don't think agents are puppet masters.
-A.Q Dub
Pro Football Talk had a post last night regarding the influence of agents on broadcasters and on the potential consequences leading up to the draft. Leaving aside the fact that members of the media have little to no influence on NFL GMs (the smart ones at least), how much influence do agents have over clients?
Longtime readers of PFT know they generally overstate the influence an agency or agent has over a client. They see agents as having tons of influence in the league. They may be right, who knows, but I've been around a few NFL front offices and lets just say they're not respected much. PFT draws an analogy to their relationship with NBC but to me that is fundamentally different. NBC pays PFT but the situation is reversed for agents and clients. I don't see what incentive a client has for complying with an agent's request to promote another client (assuming they're not paying him under the table to do so). The agency can threaten to drop the client or negotiate a weaker contract for them but then the client could simply choose another agent who would better represent their interests.
Now if the agency is paying a broadcaster or member of the media under the table then that is a legitimate problem but there's nothing that says an agency needs to have a broadcaster as a client to pay them under a table. Also, lets be real, those relationship are clearly ethical violations and aren't going to easily come to light regardless of the expectation for disclosure.
As for disclosure, you don't want to imply through disclosure that there's bias when in fact there isn't. That's an unnecessary threat to the trust between a media member and their audience (to the extent that such trusts exists, which I believe it does). It also would detract from times when a member of the media has a more legitimate conflict of interest.
To the extent that agents matter, its in that they may facilitate or guide their clients to teams who they have a more natural relationship with. If an agent is on good terms with a team, that team may have an advantage in getting that agent's players to sign. As for client to client, I don't see the evidence or the incentive.
Now a more interesting question may be what influence does a client have over an agent? A scenario, Client A is a declining superstar. Client B is a young buck who hits the free agent market. They share the same agent. If Client A has enough stature then its not inconceivable that they may be able to dissuade their agent from having Client B come to their team. An agent would also have some incentive to guide Client B to a team where he wouldn't compete with his clients. The gains in this scenario mostly go to Client A, with the losses being some marginal loss to Client B (both in salary and best team fit) and with the agent losing some in commission and risking their reputation for getting their client the best deal. How likely is this scenario? I'd say not very. You need a perfect storm with just the right balance of interests. Also, sports agents are ruthlessly competitive and I think an agent who tried to consistently pull this move would lose out eventually but that doesn't mean it can't happen once in a while, especially with superstar clients.
Conspiracy theories are fun and some of them are bound to be truish but I don't think agents are puppet masters.
-A.Q Dub
Thursday, January 28, 2010
To Tebow or not to Tebow?
I find myself surprisingly disappointed by the recent failures of one Tim Tebow at the Senior Bowl practices. Anyone who knows me is probably shocked to see me say such a thing, but it’s true. Maybe I’m just elitist, but I enjoy the feeling I get when the uninformed masses all but anoint the former UF QB as Jacksonville’s first-round pick.
The truth, of course, is that it is becoming increasingly unlikely that any team will draft him in the first round, much less a team choosing in the first 11 picks. Yet, a national fascination persists, and with it comes the consistent mention of the Jaguars as a potential home.
So, the following are my reasons the Jaguars will not draft Tim Tebow (as a QB/in an early round)
1. Best Available Player – It is the first thing anyone needs to know about Gene Smith’s drafting philosophy. Talent (and to some extent character) trumps all. No matter how many avid Gator fans would flock to Jacksonville, Gene would not compromise his core philosophy to placate a fan base. It would be hard to convince me that Tebow will be the best available player on the board until sometime on the third day of the draft. At this point, I see him as a poor man’s Zach Miller. What does that say?
2. Newton’s Law – For every Gator fan/Evangelical Christian that hops on the bandwagon, you risk losing support of the serious Jaguars fan (many Gators included) who does not endorse sacrificing winning for a quick ticket fix. Also, any potential newcomers, if they come for Tebow, would surely only stay on for the length of his stay, which, if he truly is an average player, could be a short one.
3. Haven’t we seen this before? – It seems to me that Fred Taylor, Reggie Nelson, Bobby McCray, and Derrick Harvey all played for Florida, and other than Fred, none of them can be labeled as franchise saviors. Fred, of course, is a borderline Hall-of-Famer, and even he couldn’t single-handedly sell tickets. Half of his career was clouded by detractors who questioned his durability, deserved or not. McCray had 10 sacks in a season (2006), and he was relegated to local obscurity. Can a backup QB make more of a dent?
4. Where’s the upside? – If one is able to look beyond the requisite physical tools (which are highly in doubt), is he a student of the game? Does his record show great improvement? I can see the positive of a respectful, driven young man, but I don’t see any growth. If anything, I see regression in his senior year. His decision making showed flaws when the easy plays (Harvin- or Murphy-related) dried up. I suppose the short-yardage running game would still be effective on the pro level, but is it sustainable? He already has a well-documented concussion history.
5. Where does he fit on this roster? – By this roster, I mean one that went 7-9 in 2009. Would he slide in ahead of McCown? Probably not. Below him? Not if we keep only two on roster. Fullback? Maybe, but Greg Jones is a borderline Pro-Bowler, and Montell Owens is a special teams ace. Tight end has two locks in Lewis and Miller, so he would have to compete there for a third. Looks to me like a practice squad player. How often do early-round picks make their way to the practice squad?
6. Simple economics – It is the job of the scouting staff to not only evaluate the potential draft class, but also to evaluate how others are going to evaluate a potential draft class. There’s always a risk that another team will pick your player before you get a chance to draft him. That is where the best teams thrive. They jockey for positioning to take their guys in the proper slots. Even if Tebow was to save the franchise, no other team is going to feel that way. At best, another team could see him as a potential, serviceable starter. If that’s the case, the supply will remain long enough that the demand in an early round is miniscule.
This isn’t to say that he won’t find some role in the league. It is simply a way to show the absurdity of any claim that Jacksonville would see fit to select him anywhere near the first round. Of course, I will eat my words if I’m proven wrong, but I will expect to go hungry.
-C.C.
The truth, of course, is that it is becoming increasingly unlikely that any team will draft him in the first round, much less a team choosing in the first 11 picks. Yet, a national fascination persists, and with it comes the consistent mention of the Jaguars as a potential home.
So, the following are my reasons the Jaguars will not draft Tim Tebow (as a QB/in an early round)
1. Best Available Player – It is the first thing anyone needs to know about Gene Smith’s drafting philosophy. Talent (and to some extent character) trumps all. No matter how many avid Gator fans would flock to Jacksonville, Gene would not compromise his core philosophy to placate a fan base. It would be hard to convince me that Tebow will be the best available player on the board until sometime on the third day of the draft. At this point, I see him as a poor man’s Zach Miller. What does that say?
2. Newton’s Law – For every Gator fan/Evangelical Christian that hops on the bandwagon, you risk losing support of the serious Jaguars fan (many Gators included) who does not endorse sacrificing winning for a quick ticket fix. Also, any potential newcomers, if they come for Tebow, would surely only stay on for the length of his stay, which, if he truly is an average player, could be a short one.
3. Haven’t we seen this before? – It seems to me that Fred Taylor, Reggie Nelson, Bobby McCray, and Derrick Harvey all played for Florida, and other than Fred, none of them can be labeled as franchise saviors. Fred, of course, is a borderline Hall-of-Famer, and even he couldn’t single-handedly sell tickets. Half of his career was clouded by detractors who questioned his durability, deserved or not. McCray had 10 sacks in a season (2006), and he was relegated to local obscurity. Can a backup QB make more of a dent?
4. Where’s the upside? – If one is able to look beyond the requisite physical tools (which are highly in doubt), is he a student of the game? Does his record show great improvement? I can see the positive of a respectful, driven young man, but I don’t see any growth. If anything, I see regression in his senior year. His decision making showed flaws when the easy plays (Harvin- or Murphy-related) dried up. I suppose the short-yardage running game would still be effective on the pro level, but is it sustainable? He already has a well-documented concussion history.
5. Where does he fit on this roster? – By this roster, I mean one that went 7-9 in 2009. Would he slide in ahead of McCown? Probably not. Below him? Not if we keep only two on roster. Fullback? Maybe, but Greg Jones is a borderline Pro-Bowler, and Montell Owens is a special teams ace. Tight end has two locks in Lewis and Miller, so he would have to compete there for a third. Looks to me like a practice squad player. How often do early-round picks make their way to the practice squad?
6. Simple economics – It is the job of the scouting staff to not only evaluate the potential draft class, but also to evaluate how others are going to evaluate a potential draft class. There’s always a risk that another team will pick your player before you get a chance to draft him. That is where the best teams thrive. They jockey for positioning to take their guys in the proper slots. Even if Tebow was to save the franchise, no other team is going to feel that way. At best, another team could see him as a potential, serviceable starter. If that’s the case, the supply will remain long enough that the demand in an early round is miniscule.
This isn’t to say that he won’t find some role in the league. It is simply a way to show the absurdity of any claim that Jacksonville would see fit to select him anywhere near the first round. Of course, I will eat my words if I’m proven wrong, but I will expect to go hungry.
-C.C.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Lets talk Del Rio (Man am I going to suck at titles)
Let me start by saying, unlike many Jags fans, I’m fine with Del Rio as a head coach. Would I have been ok or even happy if he had taken the USC job? Yeah probably, but it would’ve been for many of the same reasons I’m ok with him staying.
(Side note: he claims there was no contract offer, which I believe, but there’s a lot of smoke for this to come out of nowhere. There’s a big gap between no contract offer and no communication).
It’s a bit simplistic to call Del Rio an average coach as a few have done (there’s only a few writing about the Jags but they’ve called him average). I tend to peg the maximum plus or minus of a coach at 10% or so. The best coach in the league makes his team 10% better, the worse coach makes his team 10% worse. I think Del Rio recognizes talent well and hasn’t shown any propensity to underdevelop guys. He’s not going to take a productive player and make him into a Pro Bowler, few coaches can, but he’s also not going to miss on talented guys. The implications of this are the Jaguars should compete to their talent level, which if you believe in Gene Smith (which every Jags fan should after last April’s draft), then that’s good enough. The arrow is pointing up (Ketchism). Some support for this narrative is that not a single player comes to mind during the Del Rio era as having failed with the Jags but gone on to have sustained success elsewhere. I’m not counting a Marcus Stroud, who was successful here, but more a Matt Jones type. I imagine there are a few of these players out there who are a little below my radar screen, similar to how Panthers fans aren’t beating themselves up over losing Atiyyah Ellsion, but the general point that we haven’t been watching good players walk away holds true.
Feel free to remind me if I’ve missed someone. It is a matter of degree, I wouldn’t count Brett Romberg, who started a fair number of games for the Rams but maybe you would.
Player development and talent evaluation at this point haven’t been a problem for Del Rio. Assistant coaches, or his inability to maintain a consistent staff, has been and will continue to be a legitimate issue. With the firing of Ted Monachino, according to the Times Union, the Jags have fired 19 coaches in seven years. Firing 2.7 coaches a year isn’t good. There are only a couple of possibilities for what it means…
1) Del Rio is really, really awful at hiring.
2) When things go wrong Del Rio throws assistant coaches under the bus.
I lean pretty heavily towards the second option. Most of the coaches Del Rio has fired are still coaching somewhere (check Atlanta’s staff, it’s a who’s who of former Jags assistants) or they’ve gone on to success elsewhere (See Ken Anderson, now retired). The problem with Del Rio’s quick trigger finger is that coaches aren’t dumb. If they have their choice between a Jags job and another opportunity, all things equal, they’ll take the other job. This puts the Jags at a competitive disadvantage and lets be honest we can’t expect the Jags to outspend other teams in the coaching department. I’m not saying some of the coaches shouldn’t have been let go but I doubt there were 19 guys who deserved to be fired. Tony Dungy refused to fire coaches and he was successful in Tampa and Indy.
Del Rio is good enough to win when he has talent, he proved that in 2005 and 2007. As a fan, I’m hesitant to go chasing a magical coach cure all. There’s a risk whenever you hire a new coach and the Jags have been fortunate that Weaver has exercised sound judgment in both cases when he had to hire someone. There’s also the Gene Smith factor here. On the one hand, he would almost certainly have a role in hiring his guy, which could be encouraging, but if they hired the wrong person and the team faltered then that could undermine his public support, thus endangering Gene Smith himself. Ultimately, I view this as a risk/reward proposition with the risk too high to justify getting rid of a consistent, if unspectacular performer.
-A.Q. DUB
(Side note: he claims there was no contract offer, which I believe, but there’s a lot of smoke for this to come out of nowhere. There’s a big gap between no contract offer and no communication).
It’s a bit simplistic to call Del Rio an average coach as a few have done (there’s only a few writing about the Jags but they’ve called him average). I tend to peg the maximum plus or minus of a coach at 10% or so. The best coach in the league makes his team 10% better, the worse coach makes his team 10% worse. I think Del Rio recognizes talent well and hasn’t shown any propensity to underdevelop guys. He’s not going to take a productive player and make him into a Pro Bowler, few coaches can, but he’s also not going to miss on talented guys. The implications of this are the Jaguars should compete to their talent level, which if you believe in Gene Smith (which every Jags fan should after last April’s draft), then that’s good enough. The arrow is pointing up (Ketchism). Some support for this narrative is that not a single player comes to mind during the Del Rio era as having failed with the Jags but gone on to have sustained success elsewhere. I’m not counting a Marcus Stroud, who was successful here, but more a Matt Jones type. I imagine there are a few of these players out there who are a little below my radar screen, similar to how Panthers fans aren’t beating themselves up over losing Atiyyah Ellsion, but the general point that we haven’t been watching good players walk away holds true.
Feel free to remind me if I’ve missed someone. It is a matter of degree, I wouldn’t count Brett Romberg, who started a fair number of games for the Rams but maybe you would.
Player development and talent evaluation at this point haven’t been a problem for Del Rio. Assistant coaches, or his inability to maintain a consistent staff, has been and will continue to be a legitimate issue. With the firing of Ted Monachino, according to the Times Union, the Jags have fired 19 coaches in seven years. Firing 2.7 coaches a year isn’t good. There are only a couple of possibilities for what it means…
1) Del Rio is really, really awful at hiring.
2) When things go wrong Del Rio throws assistant coaches under the bus.
I lean pretty heavily towards the second option. Most of the coaches Del Rio has fired are still coaching somewhere (check Atlanta’s staff, it’s a who’s who of former Jags assistants) or they’ve gone on to success elsewhere (See Ken Anderson, now retired). The problem with Del Rio’s quick trigger finger is that coaches aren’t dumb. If they have their choice between a Jags job and another opportunity, all things equal, they’ll take the other job. This puts the Jags at a competitive disadvantage and lets be honest we can’t expect the Jags to outspend other teams in the coaching department. I’m not saying some of the coaches shouldn’t have been let go but I doubt there were 19 guys who deserved to be fired. Tony Dungy refused to fire coaches and he was successful in Tampa and Indy.
Del Rio is good enough to win when he has talent, he proved that in 2005 and 2007. As a fan, I’m hesitant to go chasing a magical coach cure all. There’s a risk whenever you hire a new coach and the Jags have been fortunate that Weaver has exercised sound judgment in both cases when he had to hire someone. There’s also the Gene Smith factor here. On the one hand, he would almost certainly have a role in hiring his guy, which could be encouraging, but if they hired the wrong person and the team faltered then that could undermine his public support, thus endangering Gene Smith himself. Ultimately, I view this as a risk/reward proposition with the risk too high to justify getting rid of a consistent, if unspectacular performer.
-A.Q. DUB
Friday, January 22, 2010
Welcome to KPPBH!
Welcome! Our goal here is to create a forum for insightful, albeit opinionated, Jacksonville Jaguars analysis. All are invited to come and share in the revelry, so let us know if you are interested in contributing. As followers of the guidance of the great Vic Ketchman (Senior Editor of Jaguars.com), we will strive to pay him tribute while offering our own take on the state of the franchise. Enjoy!
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
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