I don't really like the Raiders. I'm only a fan of the Jags but there tend to be teams I respect and like to see do well. These are teams I believe do it "the right way." They draft well, develop players, are prudent in free agency, and take bold moves to prune their roster when the time comes. They tend to have strong identities and stick with a coach for a while. The three that immediately jump to mind are the Steelers, Giants and Eagles (If I was a more objective person than I am, I'd throw the Titans in there too but screw them. I hope they give Vince Young 100 bazillion dollars for the next 40 years). They've all won enough to be relevant and respectable but haven't quite reached the point of insufferability (spell check says that's not a word. I completely refudiate that notion spell check.)
On the other side of my NFL morality spectrum (note: not real morality but morality within the reality of the NFL. In walking-around-real life, I frown upon rapists and puppy kickers) are those teams whom I think have a fundamental flaw in how they operate. They may spend recklessly, fire coaches too quickly, or have owners who are overly invested in football decisions. See Redskins, Washington and Cowboys, Dallas. I tend to enjoy watching those flaws manifest themselves in their style of play and generally they fit my expectations, losing or flaming out. I enjoy rooting against these teams because they so constantly reaffirm what I already believe, confirming my expectations about the "right" way to run an NFL team. Players do this too. Peyton Manning and Brett Favre have been especially good in recent years about fulfilling expectations. Everyone fits nicely into the little NFL machine I've built in my head.
Well, the Raiders had an expectation and they were doing an amazing job of doing exactly the same thing everyone expected them to do. They were hiring awful, awful head coaches (See Art Shell, Lane Kiffin or Tom Cable). Raider draft predictions were the best. You'd find the guy with the top 40 time and they would reach for em' (See Fabian Washington and Darius Heyward-Bey). Even if they got the right guy, like Darren McFadden, they would let them wither away. While I still think they're wasting him, things may be a changing. I don't know if Al Davis died and is now a robot, thus allowing personnel people to modernize (at least from the 70's to the 90's) or what but somehow they haven't been quite as dumb recently. At last years draft, they got a guy who was reportedly really high on the Jags board, Rolando McClain, as well as their normal athletic freak, Bruce Cambell. Thing is, normally they'd draft Cambell two or three rounds too early, and who knows, maybe no one would have drafted him until the 7th, but getting him in the 4th seems like a reasonable risk. They've also been hitting on a picks recently, not at a crazy rate, but enough that they're keeping their heads above water. They got Louis Murphy in the 4th in 2009, Mario Henderson, Zach Miller and Michael Bush in 2007. I'm sure there are more but long paragraph short, the Raiders aren't meeting those expectations. Now they're 6-6, the Jags are only one game better, and the Raiders do a lot of things I really admire.
Stupidly, I posted a while back how I thought the Jags would finish out the season. Well, being the crotchety, pessimistic fart that I am, they've exceeded expectations. Which, is fine by me, cause no one remembers predictions generally, and literally no one remembers predictions posted in this space. This game, along with Washington and Cleveland, which the Jags really, really should have lost, were the only wins I predicted.
If there is such a thing as a trap game, this is it. Jags have visions of division titles dancing in their heads, and although technically they can't clinch, if they win this week and next, they'll have done the heavy lifting. I always feel like when a team spends the week talking about how their not looking ahead, that's a problem. Not that they can't win but its only natural. This Raiders team also just dismantled a Chargers team that manhandled the Jaguars in week 2. I think Del Rio is still coaching for his job. He knows if they collapse and don't make the playoffs, he's out. Also, this team has pretty consistently played well when a let down could have been predicted, such as in the Buffalo game or last week in Tennessee. I don't have a great feel for this week but I think the Jags are going to give a top effort the rest of the way.
Some final thoughts:
- I've been following this column that puts out a prediction for NFL games each week. For the first time since it started (in week 4), the Jags are predicted to win. Unfortunately, as the Jags have won many a game since week 4, it has been horrible at predicting Jags games. I'd guess its been equally unreliable for the Raiders. It also only gave them a 7% chance last week and they beat the pants off the Chargers. For the first time this season, I'm hoping its right.
- A few updates on the LA situation as it relates to the Chargers. I think Jags fans should really root for the Chargers or Raiders to move to LA, as opposed to Minnesota. The NFL wouldn't rush to refill the San Diego or Oakland market the way they would want to put another franchise in Minnesota if they figured out the stadium situation. And to anyone who thinks fans in these cities shouldn't root for some other team to fill the LA void, this is a zero sum game and somebody is going to go there. HT to Myles for the LA times article
- There's been some talk about whether MJD is the best back in the league. I'm going to try and do a little rhetorical exercise next week on why that may or may not be the case. If he lays an egg this weekend, that could have an effect.
I think I should actually want Tennessee to lose tonight for Jags playoff chances but after last week, they're cooked. That said, if they could squeeze out a victory against the Colts, I'd take it. So...gulp...Go Titans!
-Q
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