I find myself surprisingly disappointed by the recent failures of one Tim Tebow at the Senior Bowl practices. Anyone who knows me is probably shocked to see me say such a thing, but it’s true. Maybe I’m just elitist, but I enjoy the feeling I get when the uninformed masses all but anoint the former UF QB as Jacksonville’s first-round pick.
The truth, of course, is that it is becoming increasingly unlikely that any team will draft him in the first round, much less a team choosing in the first 11 picks. Yet, a national fascination persists, and with it comes the consistent mention of the Jaguars as a potential home.
So, the following are my reasons the Jaguars will not draft Tim Tebow (as a QB/in an early round)
1. Best Available Player – It is the first thing anyone needs to know about Gene Smith’s drafting philosophy. Talent (and to some extent character) trumps all. No matter how many avid Gator fans would flock to Jacksonville, Gene would not compromise his core philosophy to placate a fan base. It would be hard to convince me that Tebow will be the best available player on the board until sometime on the third day of the draft. At this point, I see him as a poor man’s Zach Miller. What does that say?
2. Newton’s Law – For every Gator fan/Evangelical Christian that hops on the bandwagon, you risk losing support of the serious Jaguars fan (many Gators included) who does not endorse sacrificing winning for a quick ticket fix. Also, any potential newcomers, if they come for Tebow, would surely only stay on for the length of his stay, which, if he truly is an average player, could be a short one.
3. Haven’t we seen this before? – It seems to me that Fred Taylor, Reggie Nelson, Bobby McCray, and Derrick Harvey all played for Florida, and other than Fred, none of them can be labeled as franchise saviors. Fred, of course, is a borderline Hall-of-Famer, and even he couldn’t single-handedly sell tickets. Half of his career was clouded by detractors who questioned his durability, deserved or not. McCray had 10 sacks in a season (2006), and he was relegated to local obscurity. Can a backup QB make more of a dent?
4. Where’s the upside? – If one is able to look beyond the requisite physical tools (which are highly in doubt), is he a student of the game? Does his record show great improvement? I can see the positive of a respectful, driven young man, but I don’t see any growth. If anything, I see regression in his senior year. His decision making showed flaws when the easy plays (Harvin- or Murphy-related) dried up. I suppose the short-yardage running game would still be effective on the pro level, but is it sustainable? He already has a well-documented concussion history.
5. Where does he fit on this roster? – By this roster, I mean one that went 7-9 in 2009. Would he slide in ahead of McCown? Probably not. Below him? Not if we keep only two on roster. Fullback? Maybe, but Greg Jones is a borderline Pro-Bowler, and Montell Owens is a special teams ace. Tight end has two locks in Lewis and Miller, so he would have to compete there for a third. Looks to me like a practice squad player. How often do early-round picks make their way to the practice squad?
6. Simple economics – It is the job of the scouting staff to not only evaluate the potential draft class, but also to evaluate how others are going to evaluate a potential draft class. There’s always a risk that another team will pick your player before you get a chance to draft him. That is where the best teams thrive. They jockey for positioning to take their guys in the proper slots. Even if Tebow was to save the franchise, no other team is going to feel that way. At best, another team could see him as a potential, serviceable starter. If that’s the case, the supply will remain long enough that the demand in an early round is miniscule.
This isn’t to say that he won’t find some role in the league. It is simply a way to show the absurdity of any claim that Jacksonville would see fit to select him anywhere near the first round. Of course, I will eat my words if I’m proven wrong, but I will expect to go hungry.
-C.C.
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Very nice work, good writing. As a slight Jags fan, my breath is already baited. I agree with you that Tebow will not be drafted on the first day, largely because of your point six, but I'm going to go ahead and play Devil's advocate for a second.
ReplyDeleteFirst off, Derrick Harvey, Bobby McCray, and Reggie Nelson are not Tim Tebow. Even Fred Taylor was not Tim Tebow. Tebow is one of the most popular and iconic college football players of all time, and is loved by many otherwise reasonable people (not just evangelicals as you implied). I know an 80 year old PhD in library science who's children and grandchildren both went to FSU, who is a big Tebow fan.
As for Tebow's value, there has been a lot of study on the marginal value of a win in the MLB. Here is a simple article in two parts: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/measuring-the-dollar-value-of-a-player-part-1/ and http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/measuring-the-dollar-value-of-a-player-part-2/. The Jags financial issues do not stem from the fact that they don't win games, because they do. The issue is that the marginal value of each win for them is significantly lower than for most other teams. Even if we believe that Tebow would not help them in the former category (in which they do not need help), he most probably could help in the latter, which would actually be more valuable to the team overall, especially if the new CBA has less of a salary cap. Is Gene Smith going to draft BAP strictly on terms of talent (which can be expressed as dollar value from marginal wins), or will he go BAP according to overall dollar value?
In response to your point four: While my eyes tell me that Tebow doesn't have great touch on his throws, and that he got exposed by Tennessee, Alabama, and maybe some other teams for his inability to read defenses, it should be noted that he lead the 2nd most efficient passing offense in the nation last year. I have to consider the possibility that my eyes are lying to me.
Finally, regarding your point six: I'm not so sure that the market for players like Tebow is very clear right now. Last year, Miami drafted Pat White in the second round. Was that a reach? Maybe, but it shows that teams have not exactly figured out where to value "slash" type players, or at the very least it shows that different teams value these players very differently. How long can Gene Smith afford to wait before taking Tebow (if he does in fact wish to take him)?