1) Beat the Broncos who aren't very good and are dysfunctional.
2) Lost to Philly and San Diego, two teams with a significant talent advantage it would seem. Certainly not games I'd expect the Jags to win if they played again.
3) Beat the Colts - This is the real aberration, especially given the secondary, but honestly the Colts aren't very good. They're a one man show which leaves them vulnerable.
4) Beat a bad Buffalo team. This is a team the Jags should beat consistently.
5) Lost to Kansas City. A team a year (or maybe more) ahead of the Jags in terms of rebuilding but probably their only loss which they maybe could've won.
6) Beat Dallas. Another dysfunctional team.
Coaches often get criticized for playing too much to the final score but the results of this season shouldn't have Del Rio feeling as much heat as he is. I have to wonder if he wishes he'd altered his strategy more to keep games close even if it didn't give them the best chance to win. Del Rio has taken a lot of punishment but the Jags have had a coaching advantage in at least 5 of their games (Denver, San Diego, Indy, Buffalo and Dallas). Anywho, onto thoughts about the game:
- Uche said this about Garrard and I thought it was spot on: "When he's on his game, he's on his game. When he's focused in and dialed in and making good decisions, he's a top-tier guy. That's what we need from him every week." Yesterday was a better game for Garrard than Trent Edwards, or Todd Bouman, have ever played. If the Jags have any hope of getting hot this season, and it looks like they'll need to if they want to avoid the blackouts, it rests on the idiosyncratic arm of one David Douglas Garrard.
- I mentioned last week that Dallas fans were pessimistic. For good reason. Every semi-intelligent Jags fan should thank themselves that we have Wayne Weaver and not a Jerry Jones or Mike Brown. I can't imagine how sickening it must feel to have an owner/gm. Every problem your team has flows right from the tippy top, which ultimately means that people can't be held responsible. To put this in perspective, imagine Shack Harris owned the Jaguars. Except its worse. Cause now Shack doesn't do scouting or watch tape (at best these owner/gms are watching 50% of the tape that a guy like Gene smith watches and I'd say that's pushing it). He's also never getting fired and even if he does the smart thing and brings in a real football person, he'll chase them away (See Parcells, Bill). I think I'll write a Christmas card to Mr. Weaver.
- So last week I wrote about the prediction model giving the Jags a 17% chance of winning. Couple that with a slew of experts who unanimously picked the Cowboys (Cause you always should go with that Phillips-Kitna combo when available) and the Jags looked like an unlikely victor. Let this be a lesson to all those budding econometricians out there: Predicting individual outcomes is difficult. One side note: "Experts" are going to go with the fan base that annoys them the most. They know they'll hear from cowboys fans if they blow the pick but Jags fans aren't going to have the clout to get noticed. This isn't a whining thing. If anything I think its good for the Jags. Preseason hype doesn't win you games and has a habit of infecting minds. Players can read too.
- For the record, the prediction models record for the Jags this season is 2-3 (started in week 4). It has predicted the Jags to lose every game. It gave the Jags their greatest chance against Tennessee (43%) and their worst chance against Kansas City (14%). Oddly those are the two games it got right. I'll keep watching
- When this season is over a lot is going to be written about Derek Cox, his future with the Jags, and Del Rio. Player evaluation has normally been Del Rio's wheel house (I want a wheel house. Just sounds fun) but he messed this situation up. Cox has flashed and if nothing else can catch. He was undeniably bad against Denver and maybe he was hurt, we'll probably never know, but didn't deserve to be sat for so long especially considering the play of the secondary. While by no mean a firable offense if Del Rio is gone after this season its partly to him yanking the chain on Mr. Cox. Cox has flashed was more than Derrick Harvey and we've kept his ass on the field through thick and thin. Coaches don't normally blow things in this manner so maybe Del Rio is ahead of the curve on this. My fear is its all been a power play against Gene Smith but that seems crazy. Once again, just keep watching.
- David Garrard, fourth rated QB in the NFL this season. I wonder if he just goes home looks in the mirror and says 'suck it Jags fans.' People act like this up and down thing has always been his trademark but in 2007, he threw 15 TDs and 3 interceptions, and he's consistently been criticized for being a game manager. I don't know except to say we should ride it out. If it was a movie it would be more dramatic, riveting even, but since we have to watch the games I think excruciating is more apt.
1) Bye. Done. Almost victory or at least feels not bad. Holding strong at 4-4.
2) Houston, beatable but they're the better team. 4-5
3) Cleveland, fingers crossed for Colt McCoy. Regardless, 5-5.
4) @NY Giants, yeah that's not gonna happen. 5-6
5) @Tennessee. Hopefully it won't deflate us. 5-7
6) Oakland. I'm not buying them. Plus they play to our strengths. 6-7
7) @Indianapolis. Can we sweep the Colts? Hmmm, sadly, let's be conservative. 6-8
8) Washington. Hooray for dysfunctional franchises. 7-8
9) @Houston. Maybe Schaub will get hurt but otherwise...7-9
So I'd say that's out expected finish at this point. it basically shakes down to us beating bad teams without quality quarterbacks. We shall see...
-Q
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