It is better to have this guy than a guy who hates the people who pay his salary. Also, it's nice not to have a GM hostile to basic statistics (like rushing yards per game).
That doesn't mean that he isn't right about his distrust of basic stats. The article that you link claims he's taking a shot at stats geeks like Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders, however, FO's DVOA efficiency stat had the Colts as an above average rushing team last year, and had their offense pegged as the 6th best in the league over all. (www.advancednflstats.com agrees, btw).
Perhaps Polian expresses himself poorly, but I think he does know what he's doing when it comes to football. And maybe he really doesn't respect stats geeks, but the fact that he's essentially saying the exact same thing about his offense that they're saying leads me to wonder if this isn't all smoke and mirrors. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if the colts don't actually have some "stats geeks" on their staff.
You're right. The article I linked to stated that the advanced stats backed up their position, which I didn't follow up on.
As for Polian, I'm sure he knows more than the average fan, but I don't find his football resume particularly impressive. He ran the Panthers into the ground, skipped town, and has probably squandered one of the best QBs in NLF history. If he didn't have Manning, I'd question how much he'd really accomplish at all. He was obviously very successful in Buffalo but his personality got in the way so the Polian jerkness is somewhat of an issue even in his football life, not just his fan or media interactions (contrast this with someone like Tom Coughlin who was generally beloved by those who personally knew him).
I've got no way of knowing if Polian has stat geeks on staff but in my limited experience, the stat revolution hasn't come to most, or even many NFL teams the way it has in the NBA or MLB. It wasn't something the Dolphins were interested in. There are certainly a few teams, (Patriots and Detroit spring to mind), and you'd have a better sense than I would, but Polian strikes me as very old school.
Yeah, you're probably right that Polian is a bit old school. Dungy certainly was, and Clyde Christensen is both a Dungy guy (and an awful coach), and Polian did hire him. I used to hold the Colts' FO in great esteem, but my belief has been shaken a bit by their O-Coordinator choice last year. It will be interesting to see how long Manning can keep that offense near the top of the league without any intellectual help.
If I had to bet, I would say that they have no stat geeks on staff, but at the same time, I wouldn't be surprised to learn otherwise.
Ok, so Polian is a jerk.
ReplyDeleteThat doesn't mean that he isn't right about his distrust of basic stats. The article that you link claims he's taking a shot at stats geeks like Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders, however, FO's DVOA efficiency stat had the Colts as an above average rushing team last year, and had their offense pegged as the 6th best in the league over all. (www.advancednflstats.com agrees, btw).
Perhaps Polian expresses himself poorly, but I think he does know what he's doing when it comes to football. And maybe he really doesn't respect stats geeks, but the fact that he's essentially saying the exact same thing about his offense that they're saying leads me to wonder if this isn't all smoke and mirrors. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if the colts don't actually have some "stats geeks" on their staff.
You're right. The article I linked to stated that the advanced stats backed up their position, which I didn't follow up on.
ReplyDeleteAs for Polian, I'm sure he knows more than the average fan, but I don't find his football resume particularly impressive. He ran the Panthers into the ground, skipped town, and has probably squandered one of the best QBs in NLF history. If he didn't have Manning, I'd question how much he'd really accomplish at all. He was obviously very successful in Buffalo but his personality got in the way so the Polian jerkness is somewhat of an issue even in his football life, not just his fan or media interactions (contrast this with someone like Tom Coughlin who was generally beloved by those who personally knew him).
I've got no way of knowing if Polian has stat geeks on staff but in my limited experience, the stat revolution hasn't come to most, or even many NFL teams the way it has in the NBA or MLB. It wasn't something the Dolphins were interested in. There are certainly a few teams, (Patriots and Detroit spring to mind), and you'd have a better sense than I would, but Polian strikes me as very old school.
Yeah, you're probably right that Polian is a bit old school. Dungy certainly was, and Clyde Christensen is both a Dungy guy (and an awful coach), and Polian did hire him. I used to hold the Colts' FO in great esteem, but my belief has been shaken a bit by their O-Coordinator choice last year. It will be interesting to see how long Manning can keep that offense near the top of the league without any intellectual help.
ReplyDeleteIf I had to bet, I would say that they have no stat geeks on staff, but at the same time, I wouldn't be surprised to learn otherwise.