A look at small school guys in the first round...

John Oehser of Jaguars.com, has stated his opinion on a couple of occasions that he likes to lean towards big school players, or players from major college football conferences, SEC, PAC-10, Big 12, Big 10, etc (or if you're in the south this list just reads: SEC), in the first round because he thought the level of competition gave them a better chance of contributing right away. He's seems fairly flexible in this position, saying "That's not a constant or absolute, but the percentages play in your favor." I have a couple of issues with this line of thought in drafting but I can see the logic of where he's coming from. The theory goes that playing Georgia, Florida, Oklahoma, Alabama, Auburn, Michigan (just kidding, good players these days transfer from Big Blue), Ohio State, USC, and so on, week after week, better prepares you to play in the NFL immediately because the jump from major college football to the pros, while great, is less than the jump from FBS, or a smaller FCS school.

This isn't about who is better on average. Big school guys are, on average, better than small school guys. It isn't a coincidence that Oklahoma had three players go in the top five last year or USC had three linebackers go in the first round a couple of years ago. The big schools get the best guys...generally. The question though is if scouts grade a small school prospect to be a first rounder, is he any more or less ready to contribute right away than a big school guy? If he is, then how does that factor into where he is drafted?

First off, I don't see much anecdotal evidence that big school players are any more or less ready to contribute. That assertion, however, would take some actual statistical analysis to prove right or wrong, analysis which would need some sort of large data set of past draftees, where they went to school, or ideally, how big/small that school was, quality of coaching, if there was an entrenched starters in front of them on their NFL team, and a significant number of factors with a wide range of wonky complications. So I won't be doing that here. I will however go through the last five years of first rounders and look for small school guys, and how long it took them to contribute, if they ever did. For completeness, I'm not going to throw busts out here, but if a guy busts, well then this whole exercise is somewhat silly, as busting is reason alone not to draft him. Let's get started:

2006:
DeAngelo Williams, RB - 27th pick out of Memphis

		Rushing							Receiving
Season	Team	GP	Att	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	Long	TD	Rec	Yds	Long	TD
2006	Car	13	121	501	4.1	38.54	31	1	33	313	41	1
2007	Car	16	144	717	5.0	22.81	75	4	23	175	30	1
2008	Car	16	273	1,515	5.5	94.69	69	18	22	121	25	2
2009	Car	13	216	1,117	5.2	85.92	77	7	29	252	30	0
2010	Car	6	87	361	4.1	60.16		1	11	61		0
	Total	64	841	4,201	5.1	66.37	77	31	118	922	41	4

So yeah, not a terrible start, but pretty slow and a definite explosion onto the scene in year three.

2007:
Joe Staley, OT - 28th pick out of Central Michigan
Offensive lineman are a little tougher to judge but he started all 16 games his first two years, and was a big enough success that after 2008, the 49ers gave him a six year contract extension. He's a definite not bust and a definite immediate contributor.

2008:
Leodis McKelvin, CB - 11th pick out of Troy
He's a pretty slow starter for sure, and may turn out to be a bust as well. So far, in 2008 he had six starts, two interceptions, in 2009, he started three games but got hurt, and in 2010 he started 14 games and had two interceptions. He's not a bust yet, although it looks unlikely he'll live up to the 11th overall pick. If he does blossom at some point though, he will have definitely suffered through a bumpy start to his career.

Ryan Clady, OT - 12th pick out of Boise State
This will be a short discussion. He was pretty much instantly thought to be not just a great pick but one of, if not THE best left tackles in the league. The sad note in this story is that he tore his patella tendon in April 2010, and although he went on to play last season, wasn't fully recovered. We can all agree any team passing on Clady because he went to Boise State, thinking he wouldn't immediately contribute, however, made a mistake.

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB - 16th pick out of Tennessee State
Started 11 of 16 games his first year, with four interceptions. I'm not going to move onto future years right away cause we should linger on exactly how integral Rodgers-Cromartie was to the Cardinals playoff run. He had two interceptions, one against Matt Ryan in the wild card round and one against Jake Delhomme in the divisional game (which counts less cause, you know, it's Delhomme and everyone got one). Still, he contributed immediately, and the Clady assertion above, holds here as well.

Joe Flacco, QB - 18th pick out of Delaware (although he did attend Pittsburgh so factor that in as you wish)
He started 16 games right away, general thinking is he didn't ruin them and led them to the playoffs, although I wouldn't rest my laurels on Joe Flacco (this comment seems to hint he doesn't totally understand the lockout gig. He'll catch on though). Regardless of how ol' Baltyimo' Joe turns out, his small school nature didn't hurt him (another side note on Flacco: he wouldn't have been the starter without an injury to Boller and an illness to Troy Smith. Once again, I don't know what that means for this discussion but chew on it)

Chris Johnson, RB - 24th pick out of East Carolina
1,200 yards, nine TDs, and once again, even if he only got half that, would it have been a good idea to pass on Chris Johnson? I can only wish the Titans had passed. Side bar: This draft was super packed with RBs: Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, Steve Slaton, Tashard Choice, Tim Hightower. The only real bust-bust anywhere near the top was Kevin Smith. Oh, Detroit, you do it everytime.

2009:
Larry English, DE - 16th pick out Northern Illinois
He's only started four games in two years. On the plus side, he does have five sacks so he's efficient I guess. In any case, definite slow starter. I will say DE is a position that notorious slow starts in the NFL. I'm not betting on Larry English. Frankly, I'd forgotten about him, but in some of these cases, especially as we get closer to present times, the timeline for what's considered a normal rise to professional football player may not have fully played out. Regardless, a sloooow start.

2010:
Ryan Matthews, RB - 12th pick out of Fresno State
Had a solid but unspectacular start to his NFL career (678 yards rushing, 7 TDs). He has more than enough time to develop (see DeAngelo Williams) but this lends some credence to the slow starter argument.

Mike Iupati, OL - 17th pick out of Idaho
Started 16 games last year for the 49ers, and although things didn't go so well for them, I don't think it's his fault. Offensive linemen. Who knows? Idaho seemed to prepare him well enough though

Kyle Wilson, CB - 29th pick out of Boise State
6 starts last season. Time will tell if it's a good pick. Difficult to tell how much he would've contributed on another team as he had Antonio Cromartie and Darelle Revis in front of him.

Jerry Hughes, DE - 31st pick out of TCU (when they were in the Mountain West)
Hughes has had a bit of a rough start but the same DE disclaimer from before applies. As much as I want the Colts to miss on all their draft picks, we'll have to wait and see. That said, he definitely wasn't a contributor in any way year one.

So what does that all mean? I don't know definitively but here's what jumped out at me

• Small school guys don't get drafted very, very high, as in the top ten. Even the ones that should've been drafted higher (Johnson, Rodgers-Cromartie, Clady, etc) still weren't in the top ten, and if i recall were generally considered reaches.
• It's possible this is a position by position thing. Running backs, generally a position which guys can excel at immediately was fairly slow starting, with even Chris Johnson not emerging as a dominant player until his second season, and Williams and Matthews needing even more time to get up to speed. Offensive lineman however seem to be good to go.
• A significant number of these guys are home run hits, which on the one hand is encouraging for my assertion that school size shouldn't matter but also makes me suspicious that GMs tend to only go for small school guys who they have a higher degree of confidence on. This fits even with the Jags and their pick of someone like Derek Cox. If you're going to make a surprising move, it better be one you have some conviction about (as Gene Smith would say).
• School size should only be a marginal concern. If a guy can play, draft him, cause everyone isn't going to wait around. You find football players, where you find football players (says Mr.Vic Ketchman)

That last point leads me to this (which sadly makes me question why I just plopped down 1500 words), it doesn't matter if a guy contributes his first year. What matters is that the guy contributes when he's reached his full potential. Yeah, the earlier they reach that level the better, and more polished guys will always have an advantage, ceterus paribus, against less polished guys, but if you consistently draft guys who one day will be true starting caliber professional football players, then the rest is gravy.

-Q