Someone has to fall...

Ok, so file this one under stating the obvious but just looking at basic numbers, here's my list of guys who are generally considered locks to be in the draft, broken out by position, followed by who that leaves out. The long and short of it is, a good number of players are going to fall

Remember, I'm only counting "locks" here:

• 3 Quarterbacks: Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker
• 8 Defensive Ends: Robert Quinn, Da'Quan Bowers, J.J. Watt, Ryan Kerrigan, Cameron Jordan, Adrian Clayborn, Aldon Smith, Cameron Heyward
• 4 Defensive Tackles: Marcell Dareus, Nick Fairley, Corey Liuget, Muhammad Wilkerson
• 1 Linebacker: Von Miller
• 3 Cornerbacks: Patrick Peterson, Prince Amukamara, Jimmy Smith
• 2 Wide Receivers: A.J Green, Julio Jones
• 5 Offensive Linemen: Tyron Smith, Mike Pouncey, Gabe Carimi, Anthony Castonzo, Nate Solder

That is 25 (Update: 26. Hooray for counting!) guys who are generally considered locked into the first round. Now look at the list of who is left off (in rough order of their likelihood of being a first round pick):

• Mark Ingram
• Akeem Ayers
• Derek Sherrod
• Phil Taylor
• Brandon Harris
• Justin Houston
• Christian Ponder
• Ryan Mallet
• Marvin Austin
• Aaron Williams
• Kyle Rudolph
• Brooks Reed
• Andy Dalton
• Danny Watkins
• Rahim Moore
• Stephen Paea
• Jonathan Baldwin
• Ryan Williams
• Colin Kaepernick
• Christian Ballard
• Jabaal Sheard

That is another TWENTY ONE guys and I'd bet there will be at least one pick not on this list who goes in the first (let's be honest, there's a decent chance that it's the Jags who pull that stunt). I'm young and I haven't been following the draft long enough to have a great sense of how this compares to previous years. As for the Jaguars, this list pretty much gets you to their second round pick (#49, the list above has 46 47 on it) which is pretty exciting. It's going to be a fun two days

Also, everyone likes to rail on McShay and Kiper, and with good reason, but McShay especially has been pushing the fact that this draft is approximately 25 elite players deep, followed by another 20 or so who have roughly the same grade. I'm sure all the draftniks will miss something (someone from this list will probably go in the fourth or fifth round, and someone not on here will go first) but he deserves credit for recognizing the way the approximate tier levels of this draft early on in the prognosticating process that is the build up to the NFL draft

-Q

Myles "The Bear" 's Bold Mock

I'd like to welcome another contributor to khakipants, I'm not sure what nickname he'll ultimately settle on but I've been referring to him as The Bear (a nickname he picked up not because of his appearance or because of this, but because he once came as close to hibernation as humanly possible, sleeping an absurd 18 hours in a day and then going to sleep again for the night). Without further adu, The Bear's  Myles' mock:

1. Carolina Panthers-Cam Newton-QB-Auburn
1. I get it-the franchise wants to make a big splash to appeal to its impatient, fair weather fan base.  Cam Newton is the splashiest player in the draft and could be a tremendous football player.  He is a special athlete who could be transcendent and make the Panthers a perennial contender.
2. He could also be Vince Young redux-great speed at the Quarterback position, college winner, huge personality, big arm.  They both also possess mechanical holes, inaccuracy spells, and a need to be loved.
3. Another thought worth considering when making this pick:  does Cam Newton have real character concerns?  I would argue yes.  The vast majority of the country felt that Newton spent a large portion of last fall lying.  Additionally, it wasn’t just lying; it was lying with a tremendous amount of indignation.  Chronic lying is a real character issue, particularly for a franchise quarterback-just ask the Pittsburgh Steelers.  
4. If it was my team, I would prefer a safer pick from number one overall.
2. Denver Broncos-Marcell Dareus-DT-Alabama
1. The consensus is that Dareus is a franchise defensive lineman.  You plug him in and consider your defensive line to be solid against the run for the next ten years.  You might even get 6-8 sacks from him each year. 
2. I just don’t see it.  We all saw him run back the pick 6 against Texas in the 2010 National Championship game and immediately thought we were looking at an elite talent.  You don’t see many 300-pounders move like that.  I was expecting a monster 2010 fall from him and was seriously underwhelmed. 
3. People like to talk about Nick Fairley not having a proven track record.  Fairley played two years in college with 84 tackles and 13 sacks.  Dareus played two years in college with 66 tackles and 11 sacks.  I just don’t see why people are convinced of Dareus’ motor and elite level when the production wasn’t ever elite.  I think he is a special athlete but not a special football player.  I expect a disappointing career with 10-12 years in the League and no Pro Bowls.
4. I think the possibility for trading down begins in earnest at this position.  The Panthers are locked onto Newton, but I think everyone else would like to move back and acquire picks.  This draft will produce a lot of excellent players who will impact the league for many years, but it lacks elite talent.  The strength of this draft lies in the quality a team can get at pick 46, not in the transcendence of number one.  Andrew Luck is to thank, in part, for this occurrence. 
3. Buffalo Bills-Von Miller-OLB-Texas A&M
1. Miller, unlike Dareus, has the production to back the athleticism.  He recorded 28 sacks his last two years in College Station.  I happen to think that elite production from the defensive rush position transitions nicely to the NFL.  Since 2000, the players that have the 1^st, 5^th, and 6^th most sacks in NCAA football are Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumervil, and Dwight Freeney.  Miller isn’t far behind and will be a special player for the Bills.
4. Cincinnati Bengals-Blaine Gabbert-QB-Missouri
1. Carson Palmer isn’t good anymore and is insistent that he won’t play for the Bengals anymore.  They need to start over at the position.
2. I don’t think the ceiling for Gabbert is particularly high.  He can be a top-15 quarterback in the league, in the genre of Matt Schaub, but never elite. 
3. There are two reasons why they might not go with Gabbert:  they could very well not like him as a player or Marvin Lewis’ tenuous hold on his job could cause them to piece together something on the veteran market or join the legions of teams clamoring for the chance to overpay for Kevin Kolb.
4. However, I’m putting him with the Bengals primarily because I have a hunch that more quarterbacks than anyone expected are going to go in the first round.  Many organizations are going to fall in love with a QB and pull the trigger.  If you genuinely believe you have a shot at someone you believe is a franchise quarterback, then you take him.  Don’t worry about the perceived value.  
5. Arizona Cardinals-Patrick Peterson-CB-LSU
1. Determining this pick kind of depends on what you think about the Cardinals’ front office:  do they panic and take player that could return them to prominence fast or do they take the best player and make a genuine effort at rebuilding?  I think Ken Whisenhunt has a good football mind and will eventually lead the organization to Peterson, the top player on many, many boards. 
2. Peterson seems like a can’t miss to me.  Top 10 corners don’t really bust, and he has truly breath-taking athletic abilities.  I see him as more of a safety, but worse-case scenario, he pairs with Adrian Wilson to form what could be the best safety pairing in the history of the NFL.
6. Cleveland Browns-Julio Jones-WR-Alabama
1. AJ Green is supposed to be red hot right now and there is a good chance he is the choice here or maybe even off the board.  However, I think the immense bust rate of wide outs, which should give any good decision-maker real pause, makes Mike Holmgren’s decision for him.  AJ Green has great hands and makes tremendous plays on occasion.  But he also possesses the WR diva gene and lacks elite speed.  He could be great, or he could be Charles Rogers who also ran great routes and made breath-taking plays, despite historical revisionism. 
2. Julio Jones doesn’t have Green’s ceiling.  He will make lots of plays, block every down, and not cause any problems in the locker room.  He is the Hines Ward to AJ Green’s Vincent Jackson. 
3. Mike Holmgren is building his last team and feels like he is moving in the right direction.  Jones will be an integral part of taking this team to the next level and will contribute for years.
7. San Francisco 49ers-Nick Fairley-DT-Auburn
1. No one seems to think that Fairley to the 49ers is a possibility.  He is available in almost every mock draft but always lands with Tennessee.  San Fran has veteran Justin Smith at the position and not a whole lot else.  Fairley is the best player available and someone who has perennial Pro-Bowler written all over him.  He could protect Patrick Willis, combine with Smith to get real pass rush from the interior of the line, and help make this defense finally reach its potential.
8. Tennessee Titans-AJ Green-WR-Georgia
1. The Titans, like almost every team in the top 10, would love to move back.  There is no single player here that fixes the problems for this team.
2. However, I think they go with Green in this position as a potential home run pick.  He fills a need for their team and might be the best player left on the board.  They would love to find someone for Kerry Collins to mentor or a player to rebuild their defense around.  I just don’t think they will find that player here.   
3. A random outlandish side-note-the New England Patriots might be the team most likely to move up.  They certainly have the juice to get there and Bill Belichick is nothing if not a contrarian.  If so many teams want to move down, and so few teams are willing to part with the picks needed to move up, he might think he can find some value in moving up. 
9. Dallas Cowboys-JJ Watt-DE-Wisconsin
1. Their offensive line last year was epically bad.  I think best player available is the way to go in every situation but one.  If you have a franchise quarterback, the most rare, most valuable commodity in pro football, you must prevent him from getting broken.  Last year, Tony Romo drifted dangerously close to broken.   
2. That being said, the Cowboys probably won’t protect Romo as Jerry Jones has a disdain for taking offensive lineman early.  They are said to be locked onto Watt.  I could see them going in that direction.  
3. I feel safe saying they will not be taking a corner.  Jerry Jones already has a fat contract lined-up in his mind for Nnamdi Asomugha. 
10. Washington Redskins-Jake Locker-QB-Washington
1. Teams are going to reach for quarterbacks.  Mike Shanahan is making the calls in Washington, and he knows that he has absolutely nothing at the quarterback position.  Locker has the look of a Shanahan QB to me and could represent the first shock pick of the first round.  If any coach has the ego to believe in his ability to mold Locker, Shanahan is our man.  Also, he will have no qualms about rocking the boat and “reaching” for a player because he doesn’t fundamentally care about conventional thinking or media feedback.
11. Houston Texans-Robert Quinn-DE/OLB-UNC
1. The Texans are not particularly well-run. They love the home run pick and Quinn represents that possibility.  He has the raw talent of a Hall of Fame player.  Wade Phillips is going to see the second-coming of DeMarcus Ware, which he very well could be.  Quinn could also be the second-coming of Vernon Gholston.  I see no middle ground with him.
2. The other possibility is at the corner position.  Prince Amukamara would be a great pick.  He is one of the safest players in the draft.  I just think the Texans will not be patient enough to go corner again after using last year’s number one on Kareem Jackson.
12. Minnesota Vikings-Andy Dalton-QB-TCU
1. I know that saying the NFL is a copycat league is quite the cliché but there is undoubtedly some truth in it.  Last year, the Buffalo Bills selected CJ Spiller in the hope they had just found their Chris Johnson.  This year, General Managers around football could be looking for their Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees. 
2. If the Vikings believed in Tavaris Jackson just a little bit, they wouldn’t have spent the last two summers serenading Brett Favre. They want a quarterback and Dalton could be that guy.
13. Detroit Lions- Anthony Castonzo-OT-Boston College
1. The Lions would be in an enviable position if the top 12 falls as I predict.  They are said to be enamored by Da’Quan Bowers and need a steady presence at corner like Amukamara. However, if they are interested in taking a step forward as a team, they need Matthew Stafford and Jahvid Best on the field for the whole season. 
2. I think Castonzo is the best tackle in the draft and will give Stafford, Best, and the rest of the offense the best possible chance to succeed.  The Lions are still a couple of years away from contention but have to do something to shore up their line, or they will never make that jump.
3. This tackle class reminds me a lot of the quarterback class.  The potential volume of quality players at each position is large but both lack surefire franchise players.  They’re also guaranteed to be valued because of the dramatic need for each throughout the league.  I fully believe that each of these position classes will produce a couple of really good players, several decent players, and at least one solid bust.  The trick is determining which are which.  This situation, along with the depth of the class, should make any team with good management feel great about their chances in this draft.
14. St. Louis Rams-Da’Quan Bowers-DE-Clemson
1. Bowers has got to be the biggest variable in the draft.  He could go top 5 or drop out of the first round.  It all depends on whether his health concerns are legitimate or hype.  I lean more towards hype and think a well-run team will take the risk.  Bowers, if healthy, could make the Rams an elite defensive unit.  On the other hand, he could, like Robert Quinn, Cam Newton, and an abnormal number of other players in this draft, leave legacies as colossal busts.
15. Miami Dolphins-Mike Pouncey-G-Florida
1. The Dolphins love big school players and need some help on the interior of their offensive line. Other than the Jake Long pick, the current Dolphins administration doesn’t have much of a history of nailing drafts. These two points lead me to believe that Mike Pouncey is their man.   
2. Pouncey is my prediction for biggest bust in this year’s draft. Somehow he has developed into the consensus choice for best interior lineman. However, he lacks the versatility to play the center position as evidenced by his numerous botched snaps this year.  There was also a precipitous drop in the performance of the Florida offensive line this year without his brother.  I fully believe the success of Maurkice has created a sense that Mike is the same kind of player.  I smell the stink of coattail riding.

16.  Jacksonville Jaguars-Prince Amukamara-CB-Nebraska

a.       Amukamara is one of the safest picks in the draft.  He is fluid, has great cover skills, and brings a team-first attitude.  He will be a productive NFL player and seems like a Gene Smith type player.  If Amukamara is there, the Jaguars will pounce on him.  Pun intended.

b.      Amukamara also fills a huge need for the Jaguars that might not initially seem apparent.  The addition of Prince would allow Rashean Mathis to slide to safety and fill one of the most glaring needs on their roster.  Mathis played safety extensively in college and during his rookie year and will immediately enhance the position.

17.  New England Patriots-Cameron Jordan-DE-California

a.       The defensive end crop is very difficult to weed through.  Between Justin Houston, Muhammad Wilkerson, Cameron Jordan, Cameron Heyward, Aldon Smith, Adrian Clayborn, Ryan Kerrigan, and Corey Liuget it is hard to determine who are the real performers:  Heyward has the pedigree, Smith has the raw tools, Clayborn, Kerrigan, and Wilkerson have the production, and Liuget and Houston have the buzz.  The massive pack of quality players leads me to believe the Patriots might find some value from the position.  It also fits a need for the Pats.   

b.      That being said, my limited knowledge and basic hunch lead me to Jordan.  He seems to have the blue-collar Patriot ethic, the athleticism, and the history of production.

I don’t have a huge opinion on the second portion of the round, so I will attempt to describe each pick with just one sentence that could also double as a want ad.  Also, I fully expect someone to come up into the latter part of the round to try to get Christian Ponder and maybe even Ryan Mallet.  I also think teams moving up will have more than enough willing dance partners.  Supply will equal demand.

18. San Diego Chargers-Aldon Smith-DE-Missouri

                  Hot name prospect meets gambling, declining GM to fill position of need.

19. New York Giants-Danny Watkins-OG-Baylor

                  Brawling, Canadian firefighter fits coach’s mentality and fills key need.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Ryan Kerrigan-DE-Purdue

                  Productive four-year starter adds quality to up-and-coming team

21. Kansas City Chiefs-Tyron Smith-OT-USC

                  Intriguing, unique tackle provides nice mix of value and need.

22. Indianapolis Colts-Nate Solder-OT-Colorado

                  Pass block specialist protects the linchpin of franchise’s continued success.

23. Philadelphia Eagles-Jimmy Smith-CB-Colorado

                  Reid determines troubled, ultra-talented player is risk worth taking.

24. New Orleans Saints-Justin Houston-DE/OLB-Georgia

                  Explosive end provides key weapon for Gregg Williams’ attack.

25. Seattle Seahawks-Marvin Austin-DT-North Carolina

                  Dopey coach gambles on unmotivated talent with ultimately little return.

26. Baltimore Ravens-Cameron Heyward-DE/DT-Ohio State

                  Safe, solid pick will provide youth to aging defense.

27. Atlanta Falcons-Muhammad Wilkerson-DT-Temple

                  Once hot, now cold pick provides bulk and production to defensive line.

28. New England Patriots-Gabe Carimi-OT-Wisconsin

                  Mean lineman meets perfect match in Darth Hoodie.

29. Chicago Bears-Benjamin Ijalana-OG/OT-Villanova

                  Need carries the day for truly horrific offensive line.

30. New York Jets-Brooks Reed-DE-Arizona

                  Speedy white end meets copycat league to give Jets a poor man’s Clay Matthews.

31. Pittsburgh Steelers-Derek Sherrod-OT-Mississippi State

                  Underrated lineman provides boost to aging offensive line.

      32.  Green Bay Packers-Corey Liuget-DT-Illinois

                        Just a hunch

I may add some thoughts later today but it's well thought out and avoids the usual pitfalls where a consensus has emerged for no legitimate reason (See Tyron Smith to Dallas or Mark Ingram to the Dolphins). In any case, hope everyone enjoyed (enjoys?) it.

-Q

Update: Disregard above, he'll go by Myles. Look for more posts on Myles from whenever he is inspired and many thanks to him for putting this together

Ginger Hate

I don't know if Andy Dalton is going to be good (I kind of think he'll be alright) but every fan should pray that it wasn't his team that said this:

At least one team is thinking not just about Dalton's brains but also about what's on top of them. "Has there ever been a red-headed quarterback in the NFL who's really done well?" a coach asked one reporter last week. "It sounds idiotic, but is there any way that could be a factor? We've wondered."

That just doesn't bode well. Anywho, real life is intruding but hopefully I'll have more up by the end of the week.

-Q

"Gene Smith's" board

Gene Smith says he is a best available player drafter (BAP). He wants to, and I quote, "take advantage of the system the NFL employs – the opportunity, based on where you’re slotted, to acquire the best available player." He states this in direct opposition to "other teams where the philosophy even in the first round is to go to the greatest need of their football team." He is either lying or telling the truth. If you believe he is lying, that is fine. You're being cynical and I, at times, have been known to be quite the cynical person. Own it and also understand that nothing from this point onward will be very interesting to you.

If you believe Gene Smith, however, then this leaves you with quite a problem in regards to draft preparation. He very well may draft a DE, or a QB, as many are predicting, but really in all likelihood, he could just as easily draft Mark Ingram, or Tyron Smith, or quite literally whoever he defines as the best available player. This means if you're preparing for the Jaguars draft you shouldn't try to predict the Jaguars pick using analysis about safety play or their need for a pass rush. Instead, you should simply rank the top 20 or 30 players as you believe Gene Smith would see them, and then when either making a mock draft, or looking at someone else's, take the highest guy on "Gene Smith's" board (I'm putting it in quotes just so everyone knows I haven't actually seen the Jaguars board. I could sense that was a fear. My level of insider access is sometimes a burden).

Without further adu, and with minimal commentary, I present "Gene Smith's" board:

1. Von Miller - Productive, explosive, and Gene gushed about him.
2. Patrick Peterson - If not at corner, then safety.
3. Da'Quan Bowers - Knee concerns are overblown. I know. My mom's a doctor (Seriously though, I know he struggled with the post-season draft prep but tape doesn't lie).
4. Prince Amukamara - Athletic, good ball skills, natural player. Generally underrated.
5. Robert Quinn - Supremely athletic, and pro football body. Don't think the year off matters.
6. Marcel Dareus - All the tools. Lower here than most because of short production time.
7. Blaine Gabbert - Hard to gauge Gene's taste for QB's but Gabbert fits Jags well.
8. Tyron Smith - Athletic tackle, reminds me of Eugene Monroe. Don't know if he has the butt.
9. Anthony Costanzo - 4 year starter, athletic, generally underrated and a classic Gene Smith guy
10. J.J. Watt - Big, athletic, high character guy.
11. Julio Jones - Strong and fast, especially for his size. Good blocker. Sneaky good character guy too.
12. A. J Green - I kind of feel obligated to put him on here but I think Jones is more of a Gene guy and Green is low enough Jags will never sniff him.
13. Ryan Kerrigan - Leader, Kampman-like, and the emerging consensus guy for the Jags (and thus will not be the first round pick. We've all learned that by now, right? This is how we know Miami won't draft Ingram and St. Louis won't take Jones.)
14. Muhammed Wilkerson - Good size, productive and athletic. Weak competition, his biggest criticism, doesn't seem to be a huge factor into Gene's thinking.
15. Cameron Jordan - The man models himself after Alualu, plus he has the athletic chops.
16. Aldon Smith - High motor guy. Would be higher but lacks experience. Not sure he's a great fit for the Jags.
17. Mike Pouncey - Good character and despite poor play last year, Gene has shown he weights previous seasons higher than most teams (see Alualu).
18. Christian Ponder - Tough, accurate, perfect West Coast QB. Teammates love him.
19. Nate Solder - Hard worker, supremely athletic. Hasn't played tackle long.
20. Gabe Carimi - Great senior bowl and Gene loves the four-year starter.
21. Rodney Hudson - Captain, great technique, and Gene doesn't really care everyone else thinks he's a second rounder.
22. Andy Dalton - Probably not the 22nd player on his board but the QB I think the Jags have targeted.

Guys presumably removed because of character concerns:
Cam Newton - Just a gut feeling although Gene may not consider accepting money to play college football a character concern, per se.
Jimmy Smith - Positive drug test as well as two arrests
Nick Fairly - Takes plays off, questionable work ethic and hasn't been paid yet. Not a good omen
Ryan Mallett - Rumored cocaine use
Adrian Clayborn - Assaulted a cab driver

After all of this I can confidently say it will be someone I've never even thought about. At which point, like a horse drawn to water, with every donning of the black and teal, I will slowly begin to accept him.

Feedback is always welcome in the comments. Also, a special thanks to my friend The Bear for this idea, as well as to Walter Football, a site that I generally disagree with but can't help admire for the sheer volume of time invested in it. His latest mock is clearly a work of labor.

-Q

An old interview with John Oehser

Here's an old interview from April 2009 with John Oehser. In it, he mentions being a fan of Ask Vic. Reading this sooner may have been a little bit more helpful with this post.

Oh well...
-Q

A look at small school guys in the first round...

John Oehser of Jaguars.com, has stated his opinion on a couple of occasions that he likes to lean towards big school players, or players from major college football conferences, SEC, PAC-10, Big 12, Big 10, etc (or if you're in the south this list just reads: SEC), in the first round because he thought the level of competition gave them a better chance of contributing right away. He's seems fairly flexible in this position, saying "That's not a constant or absolute, but the percentages play in your favor." I have a couple of issues with this line of thought in drafting but I can see the logic of where he's coming from. The theory goes that playing Georgia, Florida, Oklahoma, Alabama, Auburn, Michigan (just kidding, good players these days transfer from Big Blue), Ohio State, USC, and so on, week after week, better prepares you to play in the NFL immediately because the jump from major college football to the pros, while great, is less than the jump from FBS, or a smaller FCS school.

This isn't about who is better on average. Big school guys are, on average, better than small school guys. It isn't a coincidence that Oklahoma had three players go in the top five last year or USC had three linebackers go in the first round a couple of years ago. The big schools get the best guys...generally. The question though is if scouts grade a small school prospect to be a first rounder, is he any more or less ready to contribute right away than a big school guy? If he is, then how does that factor into where he is drafted?

First off, I don't see much anecdotal evidence that big school players are any more or less ready to contribute. That assertion, however, would take some actual statistical analysis to prove right or wrong, analysis which would need some sort of large data set of past draftees, where they went to school, or ideally, how big/small that school was, quality of coaching, if there was an entrenched starters in front of them on their NFL team, and a significant number of factors with a wide range of wonky complications. So I won't be doing that here. I will however go through the last five years of first rounders and look for small school guys, and how long it took them to contribute, if they ever did. For completeness, I'm not going to throw busts out here, but if a guy busts, well then this whole exercise is somewhat silly, as busting is reason alone not to draft him. Let's get started:

2006:
DeAngelo Williams, RB - 27th pick out of Memphis

		Rushing							Receiving
Season	Team	GP	Att	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	Long	TD	Rec	Yds	Long	TD
2006	Car	13	121	501	4.1	38.54	31	1	33	313	41	1
2007	Car	16	144	717	5.0	22.81	75	4	23	175	30	1
2008	Car	16	273	1,515	5.5	94.69	69	18	22	121	25	2
2009	Car	13	216	1,117	5.2	85.92	77	7	29	252	30	0
2010	Car	6	87	361	4.1	60.16		1	11	61		0
	Total	64	841	4,201	5.1	66.37	77	31	118	922	41	4

So yeah, not a terrible start, but pretty slow and a definite explosion onto the scene in year three.

2007:
Joe Staley, OT - 28th pick out of Central Michigan
Offensive lineman are a little tougher to judge but he started all 16 games his first two years, and was a big enough success that after 2008, the 49ers gave him a six year contract extension. He's a definite not bust and a definite immediate contributor.

2008:
Leodis McKelvin, CB - 11th pick out of Troy
He's a pretty slow starter for sure, and may turn out to be a bust as well. So far, in 2008 he had six starts, two interceptions, in 2009, he started three games but got hurt, and in 2010 he started 14 games and had two interceptions. He's not a bust yet, although it looks unlikely he'll live up to the 11th overall pick. If he does blossom at some point though, he will have definitely suffered through a bumpy start to his career.

Ryan Clady, OT - 12th pick out of Boise State
This will be a short discussion. He was pretty much instantly thought to be not just a great pick but one of, if not THE best left tackles in the league. The sad note in this story is that he tore his patella tendon in April 2010, and although he went on to play last season, wasn't fully recovered. We can all agree any team passing on Clady because he went to Boise State, thinking he wouldn't immediately contribute, however, made a mistake.

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB - 16th pick out of Tennessee State
Started 11 of 16 games his first year, with four interceptions. I'm not going to move onto future years right away cause we should linger on exactly how integral Rodgers-Cromartie was to the Cardinals playoff run. He had two interceptions, one against Matt Ryan in the wild card round and one against Jake Delhomme in the divisional game (which counts less cause, you know, it's Delhomme and everyone got one). Still, he contributed immediately, and the Clady assertion above, holds here as well.

Joe Flacco, QB - 18th pick out of Delaware (although he did attend Pittsburgh so factor that in as you wish)
He started 16 games right away, general thinking is he didn't ruin them and led them to the playoffs, although I wouldn't rest my laurels on Joe Flacco (this comment seems to hint he doesn't totally understand the lockout gig. He'll catch on though). Regardless of how ol' Baltyimo' Joe turns out, his small school nature didn't hurt him (another side note on Flacco: he wouldn't have been the starter without an injury to Boller and an illness to Troy Smith. Once again, I don't know what that means for this discussion but chew on it)

Chris Johnson, RB - 24th pick out of East Carolina
1,200 yards, nine TDs, and once again, even if he only got half that, would it have been a good idea to pass on Chris Johnson? I can only wish the Titans had passed. Side bar: This draft was super packed with RBs: Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, Steve Slaton, Tashard Choice, Tim Hightower. The only real bust-bust anywhere near the top was Kevin Smith. Oh, Detroit, you do it everytime.

2009:
Larry English, DE - 16th pick out Northern Illinois
He's only started four games in two years. On the plus side, he does have five sacks so he's efficient I guess. In any case, definite slow starter. I will say DE is a position that notorious slow starts in the NFL. I'm not betting on Larry English. Frankly, I'd forgotten about him, but in some of these cases, especially as we get closer to present times, the timeline for what's considered a normal rise to professional football player may not have fully played out. Regardless, a sloooow start.

2010:
Ryan Matthews, RB - 12th pick out of Fresno State
Had a solid but unspectacular start to his NFL career (678 yards rushing, 7 TDs). He has more than enough time to develop (see DeAngelo Williams) but this lends some credence to the slow starter argument.

Mike Iupati, OL - 17th pick out of Idaho
Started 16 games last year for the 49ers, and although things didn't go so well for them, I don't think it's his fault. Offensive linemen. Who knows? Idaho seemed to prepare him well enough though

Kyle Wilson, CB - 29th pick out of Boise State
6 starts last season. Time will tell if it's a good pick. Difficult to tell how much he would've contributed on another team as he had Antonio Cromartie and Darelle Revis in front of him.

Jerry Hughes, DE - 31st pick out of TCU (when they were in the Mountain West)
Hughes has had a bit of a rough start but the same DE disclaimer from before applies. As much as I want the Colts to miss on all their draft picks, we'll have to wait and see. That said, he definitely wasn't a contributor in any way year one.

So what does that all mean? I don't know definitively but here's what jumped out at me

• Small school guys don't get drafted very, very high, as in the top ten. Even the ones that should've been drafted higher (Johnson, Rodgers-Cromartie, Clady, etc) still weren't in the top ten, and if i recall were generally considered reaches.
• It's possible this is a position by position thing. Running backs, generally a position which guys can excel at immediately was fairly slow starting, with even Chris Johnson not emerging as a dominant player until his second season, and Williams and Matthews needing even more time to get up to speed. Offensive lineman however seem to be good to go.
• A significant number of these guys are home run hits, which on the one hand is encouraging for my assertion that school size shouldn't matter but also makes me suspicious that GMs tend to only go for small school guys who they have a higher degree of confidence on. This fits even with the Jags and their pick of someone like Derek Cox. If you're going to make a surprising move, it better be one you have some conviction about (as Gene Smith would say).
• School size should only be a marginal concern. If a guy can play, draft him, cause everyone isn't going to wait around. You find football players, where you find football players (says Mr.Vic Ketchman)

That last point leads me to this (which sadly makes me question why I just plopped down 1500 words), it doesn't matter if a guy contributes his first year. What matters is that the guy contributes when he's reached his full potential. Yeah, the earlier they reach that level the better, and more polished guys will always have an advantage, ceterus paribus, against less polished guys, but if you consistently draft guys who one day will be true starting caliber professional football players, then the rest is gravy.

-Q

More on visits...

So the Lions may have given up any pretense of hiding who their bringing in for pre-draft visits. They accidentally sent an email to every team in the league announcing they were bringing in Aldon Smith of Missouri, Mikel Leshoure of Illinois and DeMarco Murray of Oklahoma. On one level, this supports my point before about how much fans should follow this kind of news, but it also reinforces how difficult it is to sort out the difference between general blunder, strategic leak, or meaningless turn of events that will play the part of news. I tend to think this was the mistake of a former athlete, turned intern in the personnel department, or possibly an admin assistant, and ideally the Lions would like to have not announced this week's list of draft visits. That said, for NFL GMs who are obsessed with draft misinformation, the art of war, and all that sort of nonsense, then this would be quite the wily move. Are the Lions drafting these guys? Should these visits mean more? Or are these visits high PR smoke screens obscuring who they'll really draft? We'll know (sort of) on April 28th.

-Q

Image of Jim Schwartz courtesy of Detroit Free Press.