We need to talk about Tim.

I did not foresee the downside of Peyton Manning's release. I was all "the Wicked Forehead is Dead."

If you haven't heard, Peyton Manning is preparing to sign with the Denver Broncos. Consequently, the Denver Broncos are either going to trade or release Tim Tebow. Thus, a very real downside has emerged for Jaguars fans who prefer their football team make decisions based on watching football, rather than marketing/bullshit. There's a couple lost seasons and the specter of a Gene Smith resignation looming in the air so let's work through this a bit...

1) Presumably, Gene Smith is not interested in Tim Tebow. We don't actually know this. He spoke highly of Tebow before the 2010 draft. He may have been prepared to move into the bottom of round one or take him in round two if Josh McDaniels hadn't jumped up. If Gene Smith, genuinely and without an owner's meddling hand, believes that acquiring Tebow is in the best interest of the Jags, then my feelings on the move shift somewhat (although I still think it's a bad idea).

2) Let's assume the Jaguars do want to acquire Tebow. Regardless of the reason (marketing ploy or winning football games), I think they should be very hesitant to give up anything for him, even a low round draft pick. There are already reports that the Broncos would most likely release Tebow if they couldn't find a trade partner. Charlie Casserly, former Houston Texans GM, said he'd "be surprised if he went for much better than a fifth rounder." That seems cheap but Jaguars fans have been clamoring for a lot of free agents this year but low and behold many of those guys could've been had for a fifth rounder just a few years ago, Brandon Carr (CB, just signed a deal worth $50M) and Carl Nicks (G, just signed a deal worth $47.5M), most notably.

3) Although cheap, Tebow is an extremely risky proposition for the medium and long term trajectory of the franchise. If the Jaguars bring him in and he fails, that will almost certainly mean the end of the Gene Smith era, and depending on Khan's reaction to the fans abandonment of Tebow, the end of the Jags in Jax (and if he loses, the Tebowmaniacs will abandon the team. Sure, they'll make some excuses about the WR corp on their way out but excuses don't pay the bills). Tebowmaniacs would justifiably want a minimum of two seasons with Tebow at the starting helm, so failure probably means three to four seasons by the time a new QB is brought in and developed. If Gabbert fails this season, however, the Jags would be free to move on next year.

4) If Tebow is forced on Gene Smith, I think he'll resign after the draft (apparently this is rumored already, although BCC sort of dismantles the logic. Unfortunately, logic doesn't always win out in these situations). Although losing Gene Smith would be a blow to the franchise, worse, it would signal the Jaguars were not pursuing the model of the Steelers, Eagles, Giants, or Patriots (consistent winners with hands-off owners) but instead striving to be more like the perennial off-season champion Dallas Cowboys or Washington Redskins. Even worse, while those teams at least win the off-season, providing their fans something akin to a cheap high, the Jags would more likely resemble the Dolphins or Bucs, low revenue teams who consistently have trouble attracting top-notch front office talent.

5) Now, there is certainly a chance that Tebow will continue to develop, matching those intangibles with some real quarterbacking skills, but even the most devout Tebow believers have their doubts. Unfortunately the benefits to Tebow’s success would most likely be fleeting (fans that come with a player, leave with that player. The Colts are about to experience this). More so, Tebow’s popularity will ultimately ride on his ability to continue winning and the spoils of Tebow winning are not likely to be much greater than the benefits to winning generally. If the Jags can win without sacrificing their institutional integrity, the franchise and their place in Jacksonville will ultimately be stronger for it.

-Q