Carolina - I get it-the franchise wants to make a big splash to appeal to its impatient, fair weather fan base. Cam Newton is the splashiest player in the draft and could be a tremendous football player. He is a special athlete who could be transcendent and make the Panthers a perennial contender.
- He could also be Vince Young redux-great speed at the Quarterback position, college winner, huge personality, big arm. They both also possess mechanical holes, inaccuracy spells, and a need to be loved.
- Another thought worth considering when making this pick: does Cam Newton have real character concerns? I would argue yes. The vast majority of the country felt that
Newton - If it was my team, I would prefer a safer pick from number one overall.
Denver - The consensus is that Dareus is a franchise defensive lineman. You plug him in and consider your defensive line to be solid against the run for the next ten years. You might even get 6-8 sacks from him each year.
- I just don’t see it. We all saw him run back the pick 6 against
Texas - People like to talk about Nick Fairley not having a proven track record. Fairley played two years in college with 84 tackles and 13 sacks. Dareus played two years in college with 66 tackles and 11 sacks. I just don’t see why people are convinced of Dareus’ motor and elite level when the production wasn’t ever elite. I think he is a special athlete but not a special football player. I expect a disappointing career with 10-12 years in the League and no Pro Bowls.
- I think the possibility for trading down begins in earnest at this position. The Panthers are locked onto
Newton Buffalo - Miller, unlike Dareus, has the production to back the athleticism. He recorded 28 sacks his last two years in
College Station Cincinnati - Carson Palmer isn’t good anymore and is insistent that he won’t play for the Bengals anymore. They need to start over at the position.
- I don’t think the ceiling for Gabbert is particularly high. He can be a top-15 quarterback in the league, in the genre of Matt Schaub, but never elite.
- There are two reasons why they might not go with Gabbert: they could very well not like him as a player or Marvin Lewis’ tenuous hold on his job could cause them to piece together something on the veteran market or join the legions of teams clamoring for the chance to overpay for Kevin Kolb.
- However, I’m putting him with the Bengals primarily because I have a hunch that more quarterbacks than anyone expected are going to go in the first round. Many organizations are going to fall in love with a QB and pull the trigger. If you genuinely believe you have a shot at someone you believe is a franchise quarterback, then you take him. Don’t worry about the perceived value.
Arizona - Determining this pick kind of depends on what you think about the Cardinals’ front office: do they panic and take player that could return them to prominence fast or do they take the best player and make a genuine effort at rebuilding? I think Ken Whisenhunt has a good football mind and will eventually lead the organization to Peterson, the top player on many, many boards.
- Peterson seems like a can’t miss to me. Top 10 corners don’t really bust, and he has truly breath-taking athletic abilities. I see him as more of a safety, but worse-case scenario, he pairs with Adrian Wilson to form what could be the best safety pairing in the history of the NFL.
Cleveland - AJ Green is supposed to be red hot right now and there is a good chance he is the choice here or maybe even off the board. However, I think the immense bust rate of wide outs, which should give any good decision-maker real pause, makes Mike Holmgren’s decision for him. AJ Green has great hands and makes tremendous plays on occasion. But he also possesses the WR diva gene and lacks elite speed. He could be great, or he could be Charles Rogers who also ran great routes and made breath-taking plays, despite historical revisionism.
- Julio Jones doesn’t have Green’s ceiling. He will make lots of plays, block every down, and not cause any problems in the locker room. He is the Hines Ward to AJ Green’s Vincent Jackson.
- Mike Holmgren is building his last team and feels like he is moving in the right direction. Jones will be an integral part of taking this team to the next level and will contribute for years.
San Francisco - No one seems to think that Fairley to the 49ers is a possibility. He is available in almost every mock draft but always lands with
Tennessee Tennessee - The Titans, like almost every team in the top 10, would love to move back. There is no single player here that fixes the problems for this team.
- However, I think they go with Green in this position as a potential home run pick. He fills a need for their team and might be the best player left on the board. They would love to find someone for Kerry Collins to mentor or a player to rebuild their defense around. I just don’t think they will find that player here.
- A random outlandish side-note-the New England Patriots might be the team most likely to move up. They certainly have the juice to get there and Bill Belichick is nothing if not a contrarian. If so many teams want to move down, and so few teams are willing to part with the picks needed to move up, he might think he can find some value in moving up.
Dallas - Their offensive line last year was epically bad. I think best player available is the way to go in every situation but one. If you have a franchise quarterback, the most rare, most valuable commodity in pro football, you must prevent him from getting broken. Last year, Tony Romo drifted dangerously close to broken.
- That being said, the Cowboys probably won’t protect Romo as Jerry Jones has a disdain for taking offensive lineman early. They are said to be locked onto Watt. I could see them going in that direction.
- I feel safe saying they will not be taking a corner. Jerry Jones already has a fat contract lined-up in his mind for Nnamdi Asomugha.
Washington - Teams are going to reach for quarterbacks. Mike Shanahan is making the calls in
Washington - Houston Texans-Robert Quinn-DE/OLB-UNC
- The Texans are not particularly well-run. They love the home run pick and Quinn represents that possibility. He has the raw talent of a Hall of Fame player. Wade Phillips is going to see the second-coming of DeMarcus Ware, which he very well could be. Quinn could also be the second-coming of Vernon Gholston. I see no middle ground with him.
- The other possibility is at the corner position. Prince Amukamara would be a great pick. He is one of the safest players in the draft. I just think the Texans will not be patient enough to go corner again after using last year’s number one on Kareem Jackson.
Minnesota - I know that saying the NFL is a copycat league is quite the cliché but there is undoubtedly some truth in it. Last year, the Buffalo Bills selected CJ Spiller in the hope they had just found their Chris Johnson. This year, General Managers around football could be looking for their Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees.
- If the Vikings believed in Tavaris Jackson just a little bit, they wouldn’t have spent the last two summers serenading Brett Favre. They want a quarterback and
Dalton Detroit Lions- Anthony Castonzo-OT-Boston College - The Lions would be in an enviable position if the top 12 falls as I predict. They are said to be enamored by Da’Quan Bowers and need a steady presence at corner like Amukamara. However, if they are interested in taking a step forward as a team, they need Matthew Stafford and Jahvid Best on the field for the whole season.
- I think Castonzo is the best tackle in the draft and will give
Stafford , Best, and the rest of the offense the best possible chance to succeed. The Lions are still a couple of years away from contention but have to do something to shore up their line, or they will never make that jump. - This tackle class reminds me a lot of the quarterback class. The potential volume of quality players at each position is large but both lack surefire franchise players. They’re also guaranteed to be valued because of the dramatic need for each throughout the league. I fully believe that each of these position classes will produce a couple of really good players, several decent players, and at least one solid bust. The trick is determining which are which. This situation, along with the depth of the class, should make any team with good management feel great about their chances in this draft.
St. Louis - Bowers has got to be the biggest variable in the draft. He could go top 5 or drop out of the first round. It all depends on whether his health concerns are legitimate or hype. I lean more towards hype and think a well-run team will take the risk. Bowers, if healthy, could make the Rams an elite defensive unit. On the other hand, he could, like Robert Quinn, Cam Newton, and an abnormal number of other players in this draft, leave legacies as colossal busts.
Miami - The Dolphins love big school players and need some help on the interior of their offensive line. Other than the Jake Long pick, the current Dolphins administration doesn’t have much of a history of nailing drafts. These two points lead me to believe that Mike Pouncey is their man.
- Pouncey is my prediction for biggest bust in this year’s draft. Somehow he has developed into the consensus choice for best interior lineman. However, he lacks the versatility to play the center position as evidenced by his numerous botched snaps this year. There was also a precipitous drop in the performance of the
Florida
16. Jacksonville Jaguars-Prince Amukamara-CB-Nebraska
a. Amukamara is one of the safest picks in the draft. He is fluid, has great cover skills, and brings a team-first attitude. He will be a productive NFL player and seems like a Gene Smith type player. If Amukamara is there, the Jaguars will pounce on him. Pun intended.
b. Amukamara also fills a huge need for the Jaguars that might not initially seem apparent. The addition of Prince would allow Rashean Mathis to slide to safety and fill one of the most glaring needs on their roster. Mathis played safety extensively in college and during his rookie year and will immediately enhance the position.
17. New England Patriots-Cameron Jordan-DE-California
a. The defensive end crop is very difficult to weed through. Between Justin Houston, Muhammad Wilkerson, Cameron Jordan, Cameron Heyward, Aldon Smith, Adrian Clayborn, Ryan Kerrigan, and Corey Liuget it is hard to determine who are the real performers: Heyward has the pedigree, Smith has the raw tools, Clayborn, Kerrigan, and Wilkerson have the production, and Liuget and Houston have the buzz. The massive pack of quality players leads me to believe the Patriots might find some value from the position. It also fits a need for the Pats.
b. That being said, my limited knowledge and basic hunch lead me to Jordan
I don’t have a huge opinion on the second portion of the round, so I will attempt to describe each pick with just one sentence that could also double as a want ad. Also, I fully expect someone to come up into the latter part of the round to try to get Christian Ponder and maybe even Ryan Mallet. I also think teams moving up will have more than enough willing dance partners. Supply will equal demand.
18. San Diego
Hot name prospect meets gambling, declining GM to fill position of need.
19. New York
Brawling, Canadian firefighter fits coach’s mentality and fills key need.
20. Tampa Bay
Productive four-year starter adds quality to up-and-coming team
21. Kansas City
Intriguing, unique tackle provides nice mix of value and need.
22. Indianapolis
Pass block specialist protects the linchpin of franchise’s continued success.
23. Philadelphia
Reid determines troubled, ultra-talented player is risk worth taking.
24. New Orleans
Explosive end provides key weapon for Gregg Williams’ attack.
25. Seattle
Dopey coach gambles on unmotivated talent with ultimately little return.
26. Baltimore
Safe, solid pick will provide youth to aging defense.
27. Atlanta
Once hot, now cold pick provides bulk and production to defensive line.
28. New England Patriots-Gabe Carimi-OT-Wisconsin
Mean lineman meets perfect match in Darth Hoodie.
29. Chicago
Need carries the day for truly horrific offensive line.
30. New York
Speedy white end meets copycat league to give Jets a poor man’s Clay Matthews.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers-Derek Sherrod -OT-Mississippi State
Underrated lineman provides boost to aging offensive line.
32. Green Bay Packers-Corey Liuget-DT-Illinois
Just a hunch
I may add some thoughts later today but it's well thought out and avoids the usual pitfalls where a consensus has emerged for no legitimate reason (See Tyron Smith to Dallas or Mark Ingram to the Dolphins). In any case, hope everyone enjoyed (enjoys?) it.
-Q
Update: Disregard above, he'll go by Myles. Look for more posts on Myles from whenever he is inspired and many thanks to him for putting this together
Nice work. Informative read. Two things I disagreed on strongly enough to feel the need to comment:
ReplyDelete1) Rashean Mathis will not (or should not) move to safety under any circumstance. I may be oversimplifying but CB:FS as SS:2B. It's way more difficult to find someone who can play an acceptable cover corner than an acceptable safety, so you shouldn't waste valuable asset by giving him an easier job.
2) Marcell Dareus shouldn't be judged by individual tackle or sack stats. His job is not to make tackles, but to hold the point. He was the centerpiece in the best defense in college football over a two year span - combine that with the eye test on him, and throw out the individual numbers. Moveover, nose tackle in a 3-4 scheme is one position where you really are drafting the athlete, because the set of people capable of doing that job is so small (large). Dareus is the slam dunk pick the consensus has him as.
Well, I can't speak for Myles and won't try to defend his position on Dareus (although I generally agree with him that there's more risk there than perceived).
ReplyDeleteAs for Rashean, I certainly agree with you about corner being more valuable than safety, even with the increase in the position's value since the emergence of Reed, Polamalu, etc., but I'm not positive Rashean is really capable of playing left corner anymore. If Amukamara actually fell to the Jags, then the question becomes not where is Rashean most valuable, but what combination makes the Jaguars secondary the best? In that context, I think it would be Amukamara and Derek Cox at corner with Rashean at FS and Cortney Greene at SS. The alternative would be having one of the corners (presumably Cox) play the third corner role, and having whatever pile of poo the Jaguars have back there at free. The third alternative would be to trade one of the corners to try and capitalize on their value as corners, which seems more remote to me than Rashean playing free, but who knows crazy things have happened.
-Q