It was recently released that the Jaguars would need to sell approximately 11,000 tickets to avoid blackouts this season. Of that, approximately 6,000 are the fans responsibility and 5,000 will come from group sales.
I’ve had a fear for quite sometime that there’s no ticket push coming in July despite it traditionally being the best sales month. I think the Jaguars may have pulled demand forward through the 30 for 30 plan and the publicity from Team Teal. If true, sadly, it means the whale is going to stay on the beach for a while longer and the Jaguars long term ability to stay in Jacksonville is going to be exposed in a (if it’s possible) even more devastating way.
A couple of thoughts on pulling tickets sales forward:
• It’s a good thing. There’s no value in waiting. It doesn’t in any way diminish fans who stepped up. Better to get those tickets sold than to wait. It also brings into focus exactly how dire the situation is.
• Downside. There probably aren’t a ton of people out there who a) don’t know tickets are available and b) need you to do something to make them more enticing, which means the hardest tickets to sell are the ones we have left. If the free 30 month loan and $2,000 dollars worth of Teal Deals didn’t do it nor the threat of the team leaving didn’t/civic duty push, I don’t know if realistically there’s much that can be done right now to make tickets more appealing. They can’t be cheaper or more public than they are now.
At this point I think the Jags only have a few options left in the gimmick department. They may bring back out the half-season packs they used last year. I have no idea how successful they were but I think that could still be an appealing package for a segment of consumers. That said, the Jags probably know exactly how successful those packages were and the effect those had on other sales, so I’m guessing we won’t be seeing any half-packs(they’ve also started selling single game preseason tickets which I think may signal a shift in focus towards single game sales).
A smart option, that I really hope the Jags employ, is to offer the Denver game, the Indy game and/or the Titans game as packages coupled with a less attractive game from later in the season (See Oakland and Cleveland. Although, I am personally excited to see the corpse of Al Davis and Jake Delhomme in consecutive home games).
The bottom line is that unless there’s a rush of demand from some unforeseen market (Come on Orlando and Savannah!), then the Jags are going to be fighting a week to week battle with the blackout monster. The ability of the Jags to win that fight is going to be based on a few factors outside of their control (namely unemployment and weather) but also on how hot a ticket they can be once the season starts. On the plus side, they’re going to have some time to get the ball rolling with the Broncos, Eagles, Colts and Titans. The downside is those games are easier to sell out (with the exception of Denver) because those teams are competitive rivals who will be fighting for playing spots. Realistically, for the Jags to be hot, I think they need to come home to Houston 6-2 or better, and probably on a 4 or 5 game win streak. Can they do it? Who knows but that’s why they play the games, right?
-AQW
Monday, July 19, 2010
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
New York Times take on the Jags
A pretty scathing review of the Jags in the NY Times. It's pretty smart and definitely in-depth. I think he's too critical of Garrard and his characterization of Sims-Walker as inconsistent seems like someone just looking at stats but overall a very impressive take on the Jags from a national writer.
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/14/jacksonville-jaguars-2010-season-preview/#more-46025
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/14/jacksonville-jaguars-2010-season-preview/#more-46025
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Agent's influence
Be warned, not a Jaguars post.
Pro Football Talk had a post last night regarding the influence of agents on broadcasters and on the potential consequences leading up to the draft. Leaving aside the fact that members of the media have little to no influence on NFL GMs (the smart ones at least), how much influence do agents have over clients?
Longtime readers of PFT know they generally overstate the influence an agency or agent has over a client. They see agents as having tons of influence in the league. They may be right, who knows, but I've been around a few NFL front offices and lets just say they're not respected much. PFT draws an analogy to their relationship with NBC but to me that is fundamentally different. NBC pays PFT but the situation is reversed for agents and clients. I don't see what incentive a client has for complying with an agent's request to promote another client (assuming they're not paying him under the table to do so). The agency can threaten to drop the client or negotiate a weaker contract for them but then the client could simply choose another agent who would better represent their interests.
Now if the agency is paying a broadcaster or member of the media under the table then that is a legitimate problem but there's nothing that says an agency needs to have a broadcaster as a client to pay them under a table. Also, lets be real, those relationship are clearly ethical violations and aren't going to easily come to light regardless of the expectation for disclosure.
As for disclosure, you don't want to imply through disclosure that there's bias when in fact there isn't. That's an unnecessary threat to the trust between a media member and their audience (to the extent that such trusts exists, which I believe it does). It also would detract from times when a member of the media has a more legitimate conflict of interest.
To the extent that agents matter, its in that they may facilitate or guide their clients to teams who they have a more natural relationship with. If an agent is on good terms with a team, that team may have an advantage in getting that agent's players to sign. As for client to client, I don't see the evidence or the incentive.
Now a more interesting question may be what influence does a client have over an agent? A scenario, Client A is a declining superstar. Client B is a young buck who hits the free agent market. They share the same agent. If Client A has enough stature then its not inconceivable that they may be able to dissuade their agent from having Client B come to their team. An agent would also have some incentive to guide Client B to a team where he wouldn't compete with his clients. The gains in this scenario mostly go to Client A, with the losses being some marginal loss to Client B (both in salary and best team fit) and with the agent losing some in commission and risking their reputation for getting their client the best deal. How likely is this scenario? I'd say not very. You need a perfect storm with just the right balance of interests. Also, sports agents are ruthlessly competitive and I think an agent who tried to consistently pull this move would lose out eventually but that doesn't mean it can't happen once in a while, especially with superstar clients.
Conspiracy theories are fun and some of them are bound to be truish but I don't think agents are puppet masters.
-A.Q Dub
Pro Football Talk had a post last night regarding the influence of agents on broadcasters and on the potential consequences leading up to the draft. Leaving aside the fact that members of the media have little to no influence on NFL GMs (the smart ones at least), how much influence do agents have over clients?
Longtime readers of PFT know they generally overstate the influence an agency or agent has over a client. They see agents as having tons of influence in the league. They may be right, who knows, but I've been around a few NFL front offices and lets just say they're not respected much. PFT draws an analogy to their relationship with NBC but to me that is fundamentally different. NBC pays PFT but the situation is reversed for agents and clients. I don't see what incentive a client has for complying with an agent's request to promote another client (assuming they're not paying him under the table to do so). The agency can threaten to drop the client or negotiate a weaker contract for them but then the client could simply choose another agent who would better represent their interests.
Now if the agency is paying a broadcaster or member of the media under the table then that is a legitimate problem but there's nothing that says an agency needs to have a broadcaster as a client to pay them under a table. Also, lets be real, those relationship are clearly ethical violations and aren't going to easily come to light regardless of the expectation for disclosure.
As for disclosure, you don't want to imply through disclosure that there's bias when in fact there isn't. That's an unnecessary threat to the trust between a media member and their audience (to the extent that such trusts exists, which I believe it does). It also would detract from times when a member of the media has a more legitimate conflict of interest.
To the extent that agents matter, its in that they may facilitate or guide their clients to teams who they have a more natural relationship with. If an agent is on good terms with a team, that team may have an advantage in getting that agent's players to sign. As for client to client, I don't see the evidence or the incentive.
Now a more interesting question may be what influence does a client have over an agent? A scenario, Client A is a declining superstar. Client B is a young buck who hits the free agent market. They share the same agent. If Client A has enough stature then its not inconceivable that they may be able to dissuade their agent from having Client B come to their team. An agent would also have some incentive to guide Client B to a team where he wouldn't compete with his clients. The gains in this scenario mostly go to Client A, with the losses being some marginal loss to Client B (both in salary and best team fit) and with the agent losing some in commission and risking their reputation for getting their client the best deal. How likely is this scenario? I'd say not very. You need a perfect storm with just the right balance of interests. Also, sports agents are ruthlessly competitive and I think an agent who tried to consistently pull this move would lose out eventually but that doesn't mean it can't happen once in a while, especially with superstar clients.
Conspiracy theories are fun and some of them are bound to be truish but I don't think agents are puppet masters.
-A.Q Dub
Thursday, January 28, 2010
To Tebow or not to Tebow?
I find myself surprisingly disappointed by the recent failures of one Tim Tebow at the Senior Bowl practices. Anyone who knows me is probably shocked to see me say such a thing, but it’s true. Maybe I’m just elitist, but I enjoy the feeling I get when the uninformed masses all but anoint the former UF QB as Jacksonville’s first-round pick.
The truth, of course, is that it is becoming increasingly unlikely that any team will draft him in the first round, much less a team choosing in the first 11 picks. Yet, a national fascination persists, and with it comes the consistent mention of the Jaguars as a potential home.
So, the following are my reasons the Jaguars will not draft Tim Tebow (as a QB/in an early round)
1. Best Available Player – It is the first thing anyone needs to know about Gene Smith’s drafting philosophy. Talent (and to some extent character) trumps all. No matter how many avid Gator fans would flock to Jacksonville, Gene would not compromise his core philosophy to placate a fan base. It would be hard to convince me that Tebow will be the best available player on the board until sometime on the third day of the draft. At this point, I see him as a poor man’s Zach Miller. What does that say?
2. Newton’s Law – For every Gator fan/Evangelical Christian that hops on the bandwagon, you risk losing support of the serious Jaguars fan (many Gators included) who does not endorse sacrificing winning for a quick ticket fix. Also, any potential newcomers, if they come for Tebow, would surely only stay on for the length of his stay, which, if he truly is an average player, could be a short one.
3. Haven’t we seen this before? – It seems to me that Fred Taylor, Reggie Nelson, Bobby McCray, and Derrick Harvey all played for Florida, and other than Fred, none of them can be labeled as franchise saviors. Fred, of course, is a borderline Hall-of-Famer, and even he couldn’t single-handedly sell tickets. Half of his career was clouded by detractors who questioned his durability, deserved or not. McCray had 10 sacks in a season (2006), and he was relegated to local obscurity. Can a backup QB make more of a dent?
4. Where’s the upside? – If one is able to look beyond the requisite physical tools (which are highly in doubt), is he a student of the game? Does his record show great improvement? I can see the positive of a respectful, driven young man, but I don’t see any growth. If anything, I see regression in his senior year. His decision making showed flaws when the easy plays (Harvin- or Murphy-related) dried up. I suppose the short-yardage running game would still be effective on the pro level, but is it sustainable? He already has a well-documented concussion history.
5. Where does he fit on this roster? – By this roster, I mean one that went 7-9 in 2009. Would he slide in ahead of McCown? Probably not. Below him? Not if we keep only two on roster. Fullback? Maybe, but Greg Jones is a borderline Pro-Bowler, and Montell Owens is a special teams ace. Tight end has two locks in Lewis and Miller, so he would have to compete there for a third. Looks to me like a practice squad player. How often do early-round picks make their way to the practice squad?
6. Simple economics – It is the job of the scouting staff to not only evaluate the potential draft class, but also to evaluate how others are going to evaluate a potential draft class. There’s always a risk that another team will pick your player before you get a chance to draft him. That is where the best teams thrive. They jockey for positioning to take their guys in the proper slots. Even if Tebow was to save the franchise, no other team is going to feel that way. At best, another team could see him as a potential, serviceable starter. If that’s the case, the supply will remain long enough that the demand in an early round is miniscule.
This isn’t to say that he won’t find some role in the league. It is simply a way to show the absurdity of any claim that Jacksonville would see fit to select him anywhere near the first round. Of course, I will eat my words if I’m proven wrong, but I will expect to go hungry.
-C.C.
The truth, of course, is that it is becoming increasingly unlikely that any team will draft him in the first round, much less a team choosing in the first 11 picks. Yet, a national fascination persists, and with it comes the consistent mention of the Jaguars as a potential home.
So, the following are my reasons the Jaguars will not draft Tim Tebow (as a QB/in an early round)
1. Best Available Player – It is the first thing anyone needs to know about Gene Smith’s drafting philosophy. Talent (and to some extent character) trumps all. No matter how many avid Gator fans would flock to Jacksonville, Gene would not compromise his core philosophy to placate a fan base. It would be hard to convince me that Tebow will be the best available player on the board until sometime on the third day of the draft. At this point, I see him as a poor man’s Zach Miller. What does that say?
2. Newton’s Law – For every Gator fan/Evangelical Christian that hops on the bandwagon, you risk losing support of the serious Jaguars fan (many Gators included) who does not endorse sacrificing winning for a quick ticket fix. Also, any potential newcomers, if they come for Tebow, would surely only stay on for the length of his stay, which, if he truly is an average player, could be a short one.
3. Haven’t we seen this before? – It seems to me that Fred Taylor, Reggie Nelson, Bobby McCray, and Derrick Harvey all played for Florida, and other than Fred, none of them can be labeled as franchise saviors. Fred, of course, is a borderline Hall-of-Famer, and even he couldn’t single-handedly sell tickets. Half of his career was clouded by detractors who questioned his durability, deserved or not. McCray had 10 sacks in a season (2006), and he was relegated to local obscurity. Can a backup QB make more of a dent?
4. Where’s the upside? – If one is able to look beyond the requisite physical tools (which are highly in doubt), is he a student of the game? Does his record show great improvement? I can see the positive of a respectful, driven young man, but I don’t see any growth. If anything, I see regression in his senior year. His decision making showed flaws when the easy plays (Harvin- or Murphy-related) dried up. I suppose the short-yardage running game would still be effective on the pro level, but is it sustainable? He already has a well-documented concussion history.
5. Where does he fit on this roster? – By this roster, I mean one that went 7-9 in 2009. Would he slide in ahead of McCown? Probably not. Below him? Not if we keep only two on roster. Fullback? Maybe, but Greg Jones is a borderline Pro-Bowler, and Montell Owens is a special teams ace. Tight end has two locks in Lewis and Miller, so he would have to compete there for a third. Looks to me like a practice squad player. How often do early-round picks make their way to the practice squad?
6. Simple economics – It is the job of the scouting staff to not only evaluate the potential draft class, but also to evaluate how others are going to evaluate a potential draft class. There’s always a risk that another team will pick your player before you get a chance to draft him. That is where the best teams thrive. They jockey for positioning to take their guys in the proper slots. Even if Tebow was to save the franchise, no other team is going to feel that way. At best, another team could see him as a potential, serviceable starter. If that’s the case, the supply will remain long enough that the demand in an early round is miniscule.
This isn’t to say that he won’t find some role in the league. It is simply a way to show the absurdity of any claim that Jacksonville would see fit to select him anywhere near the first round. Of course, I will eat my words if I’m proven wrong, but I will expect to go hungry.
-C.C.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Lets talk Del Rio (Man am I going to suck at titles)
Let me start by saying, unlike many Jags fans, I’m fine with Del Rio as a head coach. Would I have been ok or even happy if he had taken the USC job? Yeah probably, but it would’ve been for many of the same reasons I’m ok with him staying.
(Side note: he claims there was no contract offer, which I believe, but there’s a lot of smoke for this to come out of nowhere. There’s a big gap between no contract offer and no communication).
It’s a bit simplistic to call Del Rio an average coach as a few have done (there’s only a few writing about the Jags but they’ve called him average). I tend to peg the maximum plus or minus of a coach at 10% or so. The best coach in the league makes his team 10% better, the worse coach makes his team 10% worse. I think Del Rio recognizes talent well and hasn’t shown any propensity to underdevelop guys. He’s not going to take a productive player and make him into a Pro Bowler, few coaches can, but he’s also not going to miss on talented guys. The implications of this are the Jaguars should compete to their talent level, which if you believe in Gene Smith (which every Jags fan should after last April’s draft), then that’s good enough. The arrow is pointing up (Ketchism). Some support for this narrative is that not a single player comes to mind during the Del Rio era as having failed with the Jags but gone on to have sustained success elsewhere. I’m not counting a Marcus Stroud, who was successful here, but more a Matt Jones type. I imagine there are a few of these players out there who are a little below my radar screen, similar to how Panthers fans aren’t beating themselves up over losing Atiyyah Ellsion, but the general point that we haven’t been watching good players walk away holds true.
Feel free to remind me if I’ve missed someone. It is a matter of degree, I wouldn’t count Brett Romberg, who started a fair number of games for the Rams but maybe you would.
Player development and talent evaluation at this point haven’t been a problem for Del Rio. Assistant coaches, or his inability to maintain a consistent staff, has been and will continue to be a legitimate issue. With the firing of Ted Monachino, according to the Times Union, the Jags have fired 19 coaches in seven years. Firing 2.7 coaches a year isn’t good. There are only a couple of possibilities for what it means…
1) Del Rio is really, really awful at hiring.
2) When things go wrong Del Rio throws assistant coaches under the bus.
I lean pretty heavily towards the second option. Most of the coaches Del Rio has fired are still coaching somewhere (check Atlanta’s staff, it’s a who’s who of former Jags assistants) or they’ve gone on to success elsewhere (See Ken Anderson, now retired). The problem with Del Rio’s quick trigger finger is that coaches aren’t dumb. If they have their choice between a Jags job and another opportunity, all things equal, they’ll take the other job. This puts the Jags at a competitive disadvantage and lets be honest we can’t expect the Jags to outspend other teams in the coaching department. I’m not saying some of the coaches shouldn’t have been let go but I doubt there were 19 guys who deserved to be fired. Tony Dungy refused to fire coaches and he was successful in Tampa and Indy.
Del Rio is good enough to win when he has talent, he proved that in 2005 and 2007. As a fan, I’m hesitant to go chasing a magical coach cure all. There’s a risk whenever you hire a new coach and the Jags have been fortunate that Weaver has exercised sound judgment in both cases when he had to hire someone. There’s also the Gene Smith factor here. On the one hand, he would almost certainly have a role in hiring his guy, which could be encouraging, but if they hired the wrong person and the team faltered then that could undermine his public support, thus endangering Gene Smith himself. Ultimately, I view this as a risk/reward proposition with the risk too high to justify getting rid of a consistent, if unspectacular performer.
-A.Q. DUB
(Side note: he claims there was no contract offer, which I believe, but there’s a lot of smoke for this to come out of nowhere. There’s a big gap between no contract offer and no communication).
It’s a bit simplistic to call Del Rio an average coach as a few have done (there’s only a few writing about the Jags but they’ve called him average). I tend to peg the maximum plus or minus of a coach at 10% or so. The best coach in the league makes his team 10% better, the worse coach makes his team 10% worse. I think Del Rio recognizes talent well and hasn’t shown any propensity to underdevelop guys. He’s not going to take a productive player and make him into a Pro Bowler, few coaches can, but he’s also not going to miss on talented guys. The implications of this are the Jaguars should compete to their talent level, which if you believe in Gene Smith (which every Jags fan should after last April’s draft), then that’s good enough. The arrow is pointing up (Ketchism). Some support for this narrative is that not a single player comes to mind during the Del Rio era as having failed with the Jags but gone on to have sustained success elsewhere. I’m not counting a Marcus Stroud, who was successful here, but more a Matt Jones type. I imagine there are a few of these players out there who are a little below my radar screen, similar to how Panthers fans aren’t beating themselves up over losing Atiyyah Ellsion, but the general point that we haven’t been watching good players walk away holds true.
Feel free to remind me if I’ve missed someone. It is a matter of degree, I wouldn’t count Brett Romberg, who started a fair number of games for the Rams but maybe you would.
Player development and talent evaluation at this point haven’t been a problem for Del Rio. Assistant coaches, or his inability to maintain a consistent staff, has been and will continue to be a legitimate issue. With the firing of Ted Monachino, according to the Times Union, the Jags have fired 19 coaches in seven years. Firing 2.7 coaches a year isn’t good. There are only a couple of possibilities for what it means…
1) Del Rio is really, really awful at hiring.
2) When things go wrong Del Rio throws assistant coaches under the bus.
I lean pretty heavily towards the second option. Most of the coaches Del Rio has fired are still coaching somewhere (check Atlanta’s staff, it’s a who’s who of former Jags assistants) or they’ve gone on to success elsewhere (See Ken Anderson, now retired). The problem with Del Rio’s quick trigger finger is that coaches aren’t dumb. If they have their choice between a Jags job and another opportunity, all things equal, they’ll take the other job. This puts the Jags at a competitive disadvantage and lets be honest we can’t expect the Jags to outspend other teams in the coaching department. I’m not saying some of the coaches shouldn’t have been let go but I doubt there were 19 guys who deserved to be fired. Tony Dungy refused to fire coaches and he was successful in Tampa and Indy.
Del Rio is good enough to win when he has talent, he proved that in 2005 and 2007. As a fan, I’m hesitant to go chasing a magical coach cure all. There’s a risk whenever you hire a new coach and the Jags have been fortunate that Weaver has exercised sound judgment in both cases when he had to hire someone. There’s also the Gene Smith factor here. On the one hand, he would almost certainly have a role in hiring his guy, which could be encouraging, but if they hired the wrong person and the team faltered then that could undermine his public support, thus endangering Gene Smith himself. Ultimately, I view this as a risk/reward proposition with the risk too high to justify getting rid of a consistent, if unspectacular performer.
-A.Q. DUB
Friday, January 22, 2010
Welcome to KPPBH!
Welcome! Our goal here is to create a forum for insightful, albeit opinionated, Jacksonville Jaguars analysis. All are invited to come and share in the revelry, so let us know if you are interested in contributing. As followers of the guidance of the great Vic Ketchman (Senior Editor of Jaguars.com), we will strive to pay him tribute while offering our own take on the state of the franchise. Enjoy!
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
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