2013 NFL Mock Draft
- Kansas City Chiefs-Luke Joeckel-OT-Texas A&M
The Chiefs are
picking a tackle as evidenced by their Brandon Albert finagling. It comes down
to Joeckel or Eric Fisher obviously. Joeckel seems to be a guaranteed B+ with
the potential for a little more. Fisher feels like an A+ hiding in a C
conference. I like Fisher and honestly think Canton could be in his future. But
the Chiefs like Joeckel.
I think. Maybe. The
two most common sentiments of a 2013 NFL Draft littered with uncertainty.
- Jacksonville Jaguars-Iggy Ansah-DE-BYU
No one knows, and
anyone who says otherwise is fooling themselves. Jags GM David Caldwell is
keeping a real tight lid on things, and not even a peep has drifted out of
their camp. A couple of things to note though. Dion Jordan to the Jags is a
little something called groupthink. Gus Bradley said at the Senior Bowl that a
team should be built around speed, leading some to irrationally believe the
Jags need a defensive end, they like speed, Dion Jordan is fast, it all makes
perfect sense. And maybe it does, and maybe (there goes that word again) the
Jags will grab the remarkably unproductive Oregon DE, but there is no evidence
linking the team to Jordan. People are following unsubstantiated hunches in the
blogosphere blindly into a flawed conclusion.
Another thing to
note is that Barkevious Mingo isn’t off the table for the Jags. Caldwell has
said he likes two players. We have no idea who they are, and the same logic
that leads to Jordan could very well lead to Mingo if the Jags prefer him.
Mingo is an extraterrestrial athlete who could absolutely transform the Jags
chronically anemic pass rush. Tape don’t like. And I like Mingo. And I like the
Jags, so here’s hoping.
A word on Eric
Fisher. We don’t know much about David Caldwell, but the man is an explicit
needs drafter. The Jaguars have many needs. Let’s call it all the needs.
However, LT is probably the least needy area on the roster. Eugene Monroe was
sneaky good last year and probably would
have made the Pro Bowl if the event reflected football. Now, this needs drafter
thing could be posturing by Caldwell. The new Jags GM does not have a huge body
of work to stand on alone, but did serve as Director of College Scouting for
Falcons from 2008-2012. Let’s take a little peak at their picks to try to
detect a needs drafting trend. Obviously, Caldwell wasn’t the GM but certainly
had a say in the evaluation and selection.
2008-Matt
Ryan-QB-Boston College
I don’t know if you
remember the whole Michael Vick situation. I think it is safe to say moving on
from the Joey Harrington, Byron Leftwich, Chris Redman poo poo platter they
were running out was a need.
2009-Peria
Jerry-DT-Ole Miss
Normally, a team
drafts a DT to slow the run. Not always but usually that is the thinking. The
2008 Falcons defense ranked 28th in yard allowed per rushing
attempt. That ranking was the worst statistical measure on the entire team.
They were also 23rd in rushing touchdowns allowed and 25th
in rushing yards conceded. Their starting DTs? Grady Jackson and Jonathan
Babineaux. Not exactly building block material, especially the 35 year old
Jackson. Probs a need pick.
2010-Sean
Witherspoon-OLB/DE-Missouri
28 total team sacks
in 2009 with no single player amassing more than 6. The worst team statistic
that year? Passing yard per attempt followed closely thereafter by total
passing yards allowed. Perhaps the team needed to draft a pass rusher to
alleviate the issue.
2011-Julio
Jones-WR-Alabama
Matt Ryan was his
usually efficient self in 2010 tossing 28 and only 9 interceptions. Passing
yards were the only weak spot in his arsenal where he ranked 15th in
the NFL. The team had also become overly reliant on Roddy White who accounted
for 37% of the club total. In steps ultra dynamic, trade your whole draft for
Julio Jones to fix a recognized team need.
This information is
obviously not conclusive, and the provided stats are somewhat biased towards an
expected conclusion. Empirical scholarship this is not. However, it does give a
sense that perhaps Caldwell should be taken for his needs drafting word.
But finally to
Ansah. The guy is a freak and everybody wants their Jason Pierre-Paul. Ansah
can play in the 4-3 and 3-4, which is necessary in Gus Bradley’s system. The
lack of production scares me. It should scare everyone. Ansah could be
transformative though and has all the skills to be a very special player.
Caldwell also has time to develop a player as expectations are remarkably low
in JAX this year.
- Oakland Raiders-Sharrif Floyd-DT-Florida
Floyd, recipient of
the Mike Mayock hype machine badge of honor, seems to be the consensus pick for
the Raiders. The guy obviously has physical gifts and lord knows it’s basically
impossible to a. figure out anything about this draft b. tell how well a
college DT actually plays as a casual observer c. discern how sustainable is
Floyd’s leap into the elite last season from fairly a pedestrian level his
first two years. It’s also hard to know what the always unpredictable Raiders
might do in this especially unpredictable draft. But they have no DTs. Tommy
Kelly, Desmond Bryant, and Richard Seymour are gone, and a lot of people feel
some kind of way about Floyd. I don’t have a great feeling about Mr. Floyd, but
I don’t have a great feeling about the Raiders either.
- Philadelphia Eagles-Eric Fisher-OT-Central Michigan
Jason Peters is
coming off a torn Achilles and their right tackle situation was sub-par to be
generous. Fisher is special, and the Eagles, despite recent struggles, are a
solid franchise who won’t flub this up. The Geno Smith pick is too cute anyway.
A huge advantage Chip Kelly brings to the table is turning so-so quarterbacks
(Darron Thomas, pride of the Calgary Stampede, for example) into game changers
via his system. While Geno “I can’t throw in the wind” Smith is remarkably
so-so, the 4th overall pick is not. The Eagles are taking the value
and finding their franchise left tackle.
- Detroit Lions-Lane Johnson-OT-Oklahoma
Dee Milliner is
falling. Somebody write that down for me. The five surgeries article getting
leaked this week is the cherry on top of a slowly downward trend hype cycle for
Milliner. So while that seemingly would be the pick, it won’t be. The Lane
Johnson hype feels very real, and man oh man is the Lions tackle situation
desperate. The Jason Fox-Corey Hilliard platoon at the spot opposite of 2012
first rounder Riley Reiff isn’t going to cut the proverbial mustard. I wouldn’t
be shocked if the Lions didn’t jump ahead of the Eagles to go after Fisher
also.
- Cleveland Browns-Dion Jordan-DE/OLB-Oregon
I don’t mean to
attack anyone publically. He seems like a genuinely nice guy who clearly has
made a lot of good friends and is probably a good person. That part of his life
is clearly and definitely more important than what I am about to say. But, new
Browns GM Mike Lombardi is a special kind of incompetent. The man has spent the
last several years slinging the most trite, ill-informed mess around the B.S.
Report and NFL Network I have ever heard. He traded Randy Moss to the Patriots
pre-2007 for a 3rd Round pick. Best I can tell, he also picked
JaMarcus Russell, you know, just the biggest bust in NFL history. Lombardi once
said the first way to evaluate a quarterback is to see how far they can throw
the ball. Just hand them the ole pigskin and see how far they can chuck it.
Amazing. As soon as I heard that Lombardi had been hired by the Browns, my
immediate thought was not again Cleveland, not again. (ed. note, insert
obligatory Decision, Boys and Girls Club, talents to South Beach joke here)
So, yeah, if anyone
is picking Jordan, who ranked 3rd on his college team in sacks last
year and the star of Andy Staples annual overrated draft prospects column (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/-nfl-draft/news/20130423/2013-nfl-draft-overrated-underrated/?sct=hp_t12_a9&eref=sihp) it’s Lombardi. They’ll be thrilled Jordan fell to
them. After all, he does run real fast. A blue chipper, indeed.
- Arizona Cardinals-Star Lotulelei-DT-Utah
You had to think
this was the year the Levi Brown era would end. It seems like forever and
always he has been the brunt of the Cardinals offensive line is terrible
conclusions. Yet another year goes by and the team beat writers are adamant the
team is fine with its line situation.
So here lands
Lotulelei whose heart condition has been overstated while his talent has not.
The Cards’ defense struggled last year against the run despite their bullish beginning
to the season. They were 28th in rushing yards allowed and 22nd
in yards per attempt. Lotulelei is the real deal and could be the final piece
in an elite level d in the desert.
- Buffalo Bills-Tavon Austin-WR-West Virginia
If I had to guess a
team to bust a pick this draft other than the hapless Browns, it would be
Buffalo. GM Buddy Nix’s recent phone call embarrassment was the most recent in
a long line of poor decisions. And man was that a bad decision.
I want to believe
they would prioritize replacing Andy Levitre and go with one of the elite
offensive guard prospects in the draft. I really don’t want to believe they
would pick Doug Marrone’s mediocre-is-too-generous-a-word former QB Ryan
Nassib. That is a bridge too far. So, let’s go with Tavon Austin, a shifty
little waterbug. There is certainly precedent for Nix plopping an elite athlete
in his frigid city and then misusing him (see, Spiller, CJ). The Bills’ GM has
also mentioned a desire to draft a receiver and Austin has elevated himself about
the rest of the wideout pack.
- New York Jets-Barkevious Mingo-OLB-LSU
Mingo will not be
Darrelle Revis. Other than their proclivity for playing at different places on
the field, Mingo is not the greatest player ever at his position. Mingo could
be Aldon Smith though. Only a rare handful of defensive players jump off the
television screen quite like Barkevious. The only thing keeping these teams
apart is Mingo potentially going earlier.
- Tennessee Titans-Jarvis Jones-OLB-Georgia
This team was bad at
a lot of things last year. In the 28 statistical categories Pro Football
Reference tracks, the Titans ranked 20th or worse in 21 of them. As
a result, they have a lot of holes to fill. Given the duration of the
management’s tenure and the subsequent need to win now to save jobs, an
immediate impact player is likely. Jones’ health is a concern, but his
production is not. The man knows how to rush the passer and fits the Titans’
scheme perfectly. He might be special, and talent like his doesn’t fall often.
- San Diego Chargers-DJ Fluker-OT-Alabama
With the Lord of No
Rings A.J. Smith finally departed, the Chargers should engage in rebuilding for
the first time in years. Cornerback was an area of need prior to the signing of
talented but injury-prone Derrick Cox. Offensive tackle is the consensus need
area and though Fluker cannot play on the more valuable left edge, he can be an
extremely effective right sided mauler. Great pick on one of the surest things
in the entire draft class.
- Miami Dolphins-Johnathan Cooper-OG-North Carolina
Speaking of
management desperate to win now, GM Jeff Ireland is in panic mode and may take
the franchise down with him. The Dolphins are drifting towards a special kind
of dysfunction. I would place them third in the power rankings of teams most
likely to stink up the draft. Cooper has scooted right on past elite prospect
Warmack and will probs be the first guard off the board. Guards are super safe
picks historically, and I have no reason to believe Cooper won’t be a really
effective and even special player for the Dolphins and form a great line with
lesser Pouncey and Branden Albert. But I can’t help but wondering if that 40
time hasn’t unnecessarily skewed opinion on him. At the end of the day, I just
don’t think he is as good as Warmack, which makes this pick a mistake.
- New York Jets (from Tampa Bay)-Tyler Eifert-TE-Notre Dame
Eifert buzz is
building people! Mockdom has him all over the map, but my hunch is this is
where he lands. The Jets are not going to get any better unless their offense
improves. Mark Sanchez is bad. He is part of the problem but not the only one.
His receiver situation last year was somewhere between not great and real, real
bad. Eifert fills an area of need with a unique skill set (Kiperism in the
house!) and great measureables. Also, this could be the place for a corner, but
the stats show Cromartie and Wilson can piece a remarkably respectable pass
coverage together. Dealing from a position of strength was an unreported reason
why the Jets felt okay dealing Revis. It’s important to note too that Eifert
isn’t nearly the player Heofconstantcontractdemands is but may actually add
more value to the team from a positional needs standpoint. But probably not.
You can only have the best ever so often.
- Carolina Panthers-Sheldon Richardson-DT-Missouri
There are few
players more locked into one team as much as Richardson with the Panthers.
Safety has been a consideration with draftniks, but a game changer on the
defensive line is more valuable than at the suddenly scarce safety position.
Richardson can really be disruptive and could be an impact player for the
Carolina Cams.
Side note: Two years
ago in this little endeavor, I predicted Cam Newton as the Panthers pick and
that he would be boom or bust. I never guessed he would be boom and bust.
- New Orleans Saints-Sylvester Williams-DT-North Carolina
- St. Louis Rams-Kenny Vacarro-S-Texas
- Pittsburgh Steelers-Dee Milliner-CB-Alabama
- Dallas Cowboys-Chance Warmack-OG-Alabama
- New York Giants-DJ Hayden-CB-Houston
- Chicago Bears-Arthur Brown-ILB-Kansas State
- Cincinnati Bengals-Eric Reid-S-LSU
- St. Louis Rams (from Washington)-Justin Hunter-WR-Tennessee
- Minnesota Vikings-Cordarrelle Patterson-WR-Tennessee
- Indianapolis Colts-Xavier Rhodes-CB-Florida State
- Minnesota Vikings (from Seattle)-Kevin Minter-ILB-LSU
- Green Bay Packers-Tank Carradine-DE-Florida State
- Houston Texans-Zach Ertz-TE-Stanford
- Denver Broncos-Bjorn Werner-DE-Florida State
- New England Patriots-Desmond Trufant-CB-Washington State
- Atlanta Falcons-Kyle Long-OL-Oregon
- San Francisco 49ers-Johnathan Cyprien-S-Florida International
- Baltimore Ravens-Matt Elam-S-Florida
