Pre-draft noise, ctd.

Well, Chan Gailey agrees with me, so I've got that going for me, which is nice.

-Q

Pre-draft noise

So this story about Kaepernick's Pro Day makes me wonder how much Pro Day stats matter, or Pro Days generally. My gut reaction is that the Pro Day is more about talking to college coaches and getting a better feel for the player when he's in a more comfortable environment. You don't want to miss on a guy just because he was nervous at the combine. Especially when he may be perfectly comfortable in a "home" setting or, more importantly, on a football field. I could be wrong though about the stats, maybe this is really important to certain teams, but GMs pretty consistently say that what matters is tape from the fall, medical information, and interviews. Combines and work outs and everything else, from the Senior Bowl to visits, is really about reinforcing the information above. Information can certainly flow up, if a guy has a great combine, or Senior Bowl week or whatever, the team will go and look again at the tape but ultimately the point there is that the tape is what carries the most weight. By most accounts, this backwards up process is how the Jags have found a number of prospects, including Alualu. I'm not saying there isn't any value, otherwise teams wouldn't waste time sending scouts and coachs, but I do wonder about whether something like workout stats would be reason enough to give a guy a deeper look.

Pro Day certainly didn't seem to matter much at Georgia where personel people had to watch from a montior because of what I can only assume is some bizarre NCAA rule. Man, those guys are D-U-M-B, dumb. They will ruin March Madness. They can't help themselves.

Also, in a follow up to this post, I'm going to compare media reported visits with acual draft outcomes and see if we can learn anything new. I may end up eating my words but that's how these things go (Ryan Mallett).

Anywho, hopefully more to come later today.
-Q

Why?

Cause I got one reader and he likes J.J Watt. Who knows maybe the Jags will draft him. He does kind of seem like a Gene Smith kind of guy

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/03/22/j-j-watt-describes-his-remarkable-journey-to-draft-prospect/

Enjoy it reader

-Q

Some Love in the O-Zone

So I got some love today in the O-Zone

It's also my first submission and first answer in the O-Zone. One for one.

As for Manning sacking himself, he does it. It keeps him in games. Oehser says it is something the Colts ask him to do. I'm skeptical but who knows maybe one day we'll see Curtis Painter sacking himself.

Ask Vic is alive and well over on Packers.com. I'm catching up, going through the archives now, but so far it isn't too Packers specific. I'm sure that will change as more Packer related news comes up but if you're looking for entertaining reading, Vic hasn't lost his fastball yet.

Here's a good round-up from PFT of the NFL's argument against lifting the lockout. The League has generally been better than the players at articulating their position, and I think that's why comment sections have tended to support ownership. That said, the players have a pretty big PR chip they don't use as effectively as they should, they can die out there.

Although there are legitimately a lot of costs players don't pay their fair share of, there are some pretty substantial costs players bear that owners will never see, long term health costs and really when you think about it, a reduced quality of life that can't be compensated for.

-Q

Ryan Mallett first overall?

A while back I announced to the world (the world consisting of the three people who read this site), that I had made a very unwise bet that Ryan Mallett would go in the top five in the NFL draft.

Just to put this bet in perspective, the loser had to purchase the winner a meal, I prebought the meal for my friend, The Bear, last weekend. (It was delicious)

Well, against all odds, Ron Rivera says the Panthers are still considering Mallett with the top overall pick. I'm guessing I'd be the only one to cheer if that went down but cheer I would.

-Q

Health Insurance and the lockout

I don't imagine this will change anyone's ideas about health insurance or the ACA but a really interesting post from Tania Ganguali at the Times-Union on the effect of the lockout on players health insurance costs. To sum it up, MJD has been shopping around for better insurance than the COBRA insurance he is eligible for during the lockout. Unfortunately, he is essentially denied coverage or even a quote because of prior injuries and current ailments. He's definitely a surprising victim of the way the insurance system is set up in America. I'm not positive but pretty sure in 2014, the insurance company would no longer be able to deny him coverage due to a pre-existing condition. I doubt any ACA supporters in Washington will bring it up (if they don't have to, they don't bring it up) but I wonder if it changes any NFL player's opinions on the issue.

-Q

Image coutesy of the Boston Herald

Labor news

There are reports that the Union plans to deceritfy.  While a useful leverageing tool for the NFLPA, it runs the risk of causing serious damage for the NFL due to antitrust issues. I don't know a ton about this although my gut tells me fans would be better off if CBA issues could be settled at the bargaining table.

Here's a primer from USA today on decertification.

Hold on to your hats everybody. It's about to get legal up in here.

-Q

Someone I'm rooting for...

I'm going to try and post a little bit about players who I think, despite first impression, deserve a little sympathy. Not sure how frequent this will be and the first guy isn't too much of a stretch. I have no doubt the NFL and media would eat it up if he was to make a Pro Bowl but I think Sergio Kindle deserves some kind of love. For those not familiar, he was injured when he fell down the stairs while sleep walking. His skull was fractured severely enough (I suppose there aren't too many mild skull fractures) that he has yet to practice or play with the Ravens. Recently, Jim Harbaugh expressed some hope that Kindle would be able to play again.

Kindle is by no means a choir boy. He's had a DUI arrests since the accident and at the time there was no shortage of rumors that alcohol was somehow involved. That said, it pretty quickly emerged that Kindle suffers from narcolepsy and that this condition contributed to the accident. Kindle eventually signed a contract with the Ravens which included no signing bonus. Players drafted immediately around him received approximately 1.75 million dollars in a guaranteed signing bonus. Although I can certainly understand the business reasons for the Ravens decision to exclude a signing bonus it seemed fairly callous and patently unfair, albeit perfectly legal. Most NFL teams probably would have done the same but it seems to me to be in bad faith. If he ever plays for them, they got themselves quite a bargain and something tells me they won't renegotiate (or they could have wink, wink, nod, nod agreement. I don't know)

He was a dynamic player at Texas that I would love to see return to the field. I don't know anything about Kindle personally but the when I think about his story, and just simply the time he invested in his career, there's a sad spot that makes me want to see him succeed. Somehow his DUI arrest, something for which I normally have very little sympathy for, especially from professional athletes, only made me root for him harder. I'm just looking for a little redemption for a guy who had a pretty shitty fall so close to his dreams.

-Q

Follow up

Just to follow up on this post, note how many teams showed up at Alabama's Pro Day (last line of this article). It's not a perfect illustration (Alabama, USC, Florida, these schools have been known to turn out a prospect or two) but just take all draft indicators of interest with a grain of salt.

Also, a couple of links from around the intraweb on the Jaguars

• A decent profile of Kassim Osgood from Jaguars.com
• An article from ESPN on the Jaguars' and Texan's situations at both safety positions, as well as the general weakness of the positions in this draft class. (Side note: I don't follow him too closely but I was surprised Todd McShay was so strongly down on DeAndre McDaniel from Clemson. My friend Miller, currently a grad student at Clemson, and one of the top ultimate frisbee players in the country, is pretty high on McDaniel. Oddly, the prospect inspiring less enthusiasm? D'Quann Bowers. He thinks he'll be solid but unspectacular. Go figure)

-Q

A thing about player visits and the like...

Ok, so in an effort to sort through the flood of draft realted information that comes this time of year, a few things should be noted,

1) It doesn't matter if a Jaguars scout, even if it's Gene Smith, went to see a players game or practice when they were in school. That's not to say they couldn't see something to affect that player's draft status but the visit itself is nothing more than due diligence. Scouts, especially regional scouts, will have seen almost every draftable player in their region at some point, and anyone who has a chance to go in the early rounds will be seen by someone from the personnel department for sure. That is what these guys do. They watch football practice or games during the day, and then watch tape at night. Then, the next day they do it again. Big Cat Country, bless their heart, tracks this like its some sort of clue to who the team is interested in.

2) Pre-draft visits, while more significant, are a fairly weak indicator of likelihood to be drafted. Also, to put it mildly, agents have a serious incentive to claim their player was brought in for a visit regardless of whether or not they actually were. These combine to make media reports, generally unsourced or with an anonymous source (normally the players agent), useless to fans. While it would be useful, even if every team in the NFL had their player visits leaked, fans would be shocked at the guys who teams never even brought in. Sometimes when a team is head over heals for a kid, they avoid him. They use other sources, either with the combine, or at the school if they have a connection, to gather information. If you watch closely you'll see a handful of stories after the draft about how player X had no idea team X was even interested. That's not on accident. Teams try really hard to not let their targets become hot guys, at least not due to their actions.

It does give everyone something to talk about though.

-Q

And we're back...

...excuses, excuses, but really life is busy and the NFL is more depressing right now than anything.

From Real Clear Sports, Here's a convenient round-up, with links, to the major mock drafts . The mode for the Jags is Ryan Kerrigan, DE from Purdue, while RCS somehow (I haven't looked into their methodology) averages out the Jags pick to be Aldon Smith, OLB from Missouri. Kerrigan makes more sense to me from my impressions of the players but there's no deciphering Gene Smith's board...

...Owners and player continue to meet which is good news, although it's not hard to imagine them continuing to meet right up till their eye balls fall out. I can't imagine most of these guys have a lot else going on more important than the labor situation.

A lot has been made of the money the owners didn't get from TV contracts, and that it gave the players this immense amount of leverage, or dramatically leveled the playing field, or something of that nature, I think that's overstating the magnitude of the effect. It certainly helped the players but really it just means NFL owners would need to get a more expensive loan, which hurts but only a marginal amount. It also doesn't change the fact that the owners are not going to personally be affected by not having football. If players start missing checks I think they'll fold pretty quickly, it would have a dramatic effect on their immediate lifestyle. Owners though could lose a season without it affecting their immediate lifestyle and really without it affecting their lifestyle over the course of their lives. All of these guys were insanely rich before football ever became part of their lives (unless you count the old guard guys like the Rooneys or Brown's). Owners are greedy (no argument there) but I think it's going to come down to whether or not they're telling the truth about the current model really losing them money (or eventually losing them money). If they're telling the truth, then they really have no incentive to return until the deal changes. If their not, then I imagine they'll get what they can from the players, and call it a day. I just doubt this is all a big rouse. If these guys were making money hand over fist they'd be a lot less willing to rock the boat. We shall see but I'm betting on either players capitulating soon, or owners breaking them down.

-Q